[Paint Touches] Did MU collapse or revert to the mean in 19?

[PaintTouches]

Two sides of the same coin, maybe, but this graph ruined any and all productivity at work for me today, so I had to write something up.



https://painttouches.com/2019/10/02/did-marquette-collapse-in-2019-or-just-revert-to-the-mean/

[brewcity77]

Good stuff, Andrei. Reminds me of the article I wrote about how rankings in January were largely a result of luck and remember getting skewered online for it. Hoping that a better defense in 2019-20 leads to more consistent and more deserved results.

[tower912]

Had leads in the last 5 minutes of 5 out of 6 losses.     

[NCMUFan]

and some of the wins could of as easily been losses.
Maybe it was the fact that two starters were not 100% in with the team was an X factor contributing to the difference between a W and L when statistics cannot draw it out.

[oldwarrior81]

up to and including Feb 5th;
MU was in a total of 13 games in which the score was within 10 points with 5:00 to play.  Leading in 7 of the 13.
During the final 5:00 MU outscored the opponents in 12 of the 13 games, with the other being played even.  Record in those 13 games was 11-2.

After Feb 5th, there were 7 games within 10 points with 5:00 to play.
MU only outscored the opponent in the final 5:00 once (Georgetown on 3/9, by a single point).
Outscored by Seton Hall 18-2;  Villanova 12-1, and Creighton 16-6 in late game collapses.

[dgies9156]

So when you strip the data analytics down to the lowest common denominator, what you are saying is, "what goes around comes around."

Or, Marquette's luck ran out!

[tower912]

Or, ran out of gas late in games late in the season.   

[bilsu]

Marquette did not start fast, if I remember correctly we were 2-2.
We had the same record as Villanova in the last 9 conference games. This tells me the rest of the Big East got better.

[DoctorV]

All Marquette's reach equilibrium

[Dr. Blackheart]

1-5 since the letter was written and Markus was hurt in the PC game.

[RubyWiscy]

It definitely seemed like a few players forgot which team they were on when passing the ball at the end of some of those games.

[bilsu]

It definitely seemed like a few players forgot which team they were on when passing the ball at the end of some of those games.

or was it
I hate Markus and I am not giving him the ball and I hate Sam and Joey and I am not giving them the ball.

[PaintTouches]

It definitely seemed like a few players forgot which team they were on when passing the ball at the end of some of those games.

Just finished a longer post, but here's the change in TO Rate from the middle 11 games to the final 11 (non NCAAT) games.



I was pretty shocked at how "low" Markus' TORate was, because the eye test definitely made it seem like it spiked at the end. Same for Joey, but the stats tell a different tale (that they were sloppy since well before the end). Sam's TO Rate jump still baffles me.

[brewcity77]

Just finished a longer post, but here's the change in TO Rate from the middle 11 games to the final 11 (non NCAAT) games.



I was pretty shocked at how "low" Markus' TORate was, because the eye test definitely made it seem like it spiked at the end. Same for Joey, but the stats tell a different tale (that they were sloppy since well before the end). Sam's TO Rate jump still baffles me.

To me, this is a huge positive. As far as Markus' TO Rate, it was all a product of usage. The rate looked artificially large to the eye test simply because so many possessions ended in his hands. His TO Rate was better than any we saw in the combined careers of Junior Cadougan and Derrick Wilson.

Back to the positive. Joey and Chartouny were consistently bad, both are gone. Sam and Cain got demonstrably worse as the season went on, but Cain played very limited minutes and while he had 6 turnovers in that stretch, he only took 8 shots, so it's a pretty limited sample.

The guys whose numbers most worried me in isolation were Morrow and John, both got better after a terrible start that skewed their numbers all year long. Bailey stands to gain significant minutes, he's great at keeping the ball. If McEwen can prove to be a reliable second ball-handler, I think our turnover numbers will be much better this year. The worst offenders are either gone or got better as last year went on.