[Paint Touches] Marquette’s end of season scenarios

[PaintTouches]

We broke down how TRank projects Marquette's NCAA odds based on almost every conceivable MU outcome the rest of the season. Keep this handy, though it may be adjusted later in the week depending on Seton Hall's results.

https://painttouches.com/2018/02/27/marquettes-end-of-season-scenarios/

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nice post.  The one thing I've too noticed when playing with RPI wizard and TRANK is that it almost seems preferred from an at large perspective to get the 7 seed in the BET.  With a win against Creighton on Saturday, and a win against SJU in the 7/10, we should be right there.  Get the 6 seed and lose that game, we may be in trouble...per the numbers.

Not sure I necessarily agree with the numbers in this case, but do think a 1-1 scenario where we beat Creighton Saturday and then lose to the 3 seed (most likely PC, Butler or Creighton in that scenario), we'd have a shot at Dayton but I would be very nervous on Selection Sunday.

[PaintTouches]

Nice post.  The one thing I've too noticed when playing with RPI wizard and TRANK is that it almost seems preferred from an at large perspective to get the 7 seed in the BET.  With a win against Creighton on Saturday, and a win against SJU in the 7/10, we should be right there.  Get the 6 seed and lose that game, we may be in trouble...per the numbers.

I think someone mentioned it in your bubble thread, but playing St. John's is preferable because the game counts as a true road game, not neutral, so it would be a Q2 game vs a Q3 game against DePaul. 90 RPI spots separate those 2 teams, so it makes sense that computers would weigh a win much more heavily.

Of course, beating St. John's at the Garden is night and day different than beating DePaul. But beating St. John's is probably more realistic than beating Nova or X, so when it comes down to it, I'll take my chances with St. John's than Nova/X,

[muguru]

I know its not likely..but I'd like to see the #'s and scenarios if MU were to somehow get the 5 seed instead..the only thing that would change likely is the opponent in the first game(PC, Creighton, Hall, Butler) but id be curious to know then if just beating Creighton and winning the 4/5 game would be enough..even with a loss to X or Nova in the next game.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I know its not likely..but I'd like to see the #'s and scenarios if MU were to somehow get the 5 seed instead..the only thing that would change likely is the opponent in the first game(PC, Creighton, Hall, Butler) but id be curious to know then if just beating Creighton and winning the 4/5 game would be enough..even with a loss to X or Nova in the next game.

I think that is basically covered in the 3 v 6 scenario.  The possible opponents in the 4/5 game would be the same as 3/6 since there is a 4 way tie for 3rd currently. 

[muguru]

I think that is basically covered in the 3 v 6 scenario.  The possible opponents in the 4/5 game would be the same as 3/6 since there is a 4 way tie for 3rd currently.

Right, that's kind of what I assumed...running the #'s through the Wizard myself, it looks like regardless of who MU played in the scenario of MU gaining the 5 seed, their RPI would be either 49-50(assuming a win of course), and SOS between 15 & 17. Man, #'s like that I would assume would mean SAFELY in(and perhaps avoiding Dayton).

[Its DJOver]

I realize that they're not supposed to, but does the committee look at conference standing at all?  Now, there are obvious times that you could take a team that finished lower, Michigan is a lock, Nebraska should be out, even though Nebraska finished 4th, and Michigan 5th.  That being said, would they take the 6 Beast teams that finished 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and leave out 5?  The counter argument is that we would only be there because of a tiebreaker, but wouldn't the fact that the BEast does double round robin kind of nullify that?

[i71_dawg]

Why does anyone think MU can win the next 2 games, when Wojo has NEVER won 3 straight Big East games in his 4 years here?

I mean, I guess he has to eventually...I just don't see it happening this year, with this team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I realize that they're not supposed to, but does the committee look at conference standing at all?  Now, there are obvious times that you could take a team that finished lower, Michigan is a lock, Nebraska should be out, even though Nebraska finished 4th, and Michigan 5th.  That being said, would they take the 6 Beast teams that finished 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and leave out 5?  The counter argument is that we would only be there because of a tiebreaker, but wouldn't the fact that the BEast does double round robin kind of nullify that?

They say conference record doesn't matter, but I'm sure it holds some weight in round robin conferences like BE and B12. ACC, Big10, SEC...not so much.

[cheese ball chaser]

Why does anyone think MU can win the next 2 games, when Wojo has NEVER won 3 straight Big East games in his 4 years here?

I mean, I guess he has to eventually...I just don't see it happening this year, with this team.

We have hope

[brewcity77]

Not sure I necessarily agree with the numbers in this case, but do think a 1-1 scenario where we beat Creighton Saturday and then lose to the 3 seed (most likely PC, Butler or Creighton in that scenario), we'd have a shot at Dayton but I would be very nervous on Selection Sunday.

If we beat Creighton, I'll be worried come Selection Sunday no matter what unless we get the auto. Virtually guarantees we'll be right around the cut line, which never inspires confidence.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If we beat Creighton, I'll be worried come Selection Sunday no matter what unless we get the auto. Virtually guarantees we'll be right around the cut line, which never inspires confidence.

Yah. I'll be pretty confident if we get 6 seed and beat the 3 seed. I'll feel decent but a little less confident if we beat SJU in 7/10 and lose to Nova, but think we'll be within 2 teams of the cutline one way or another.

I know you've never been a big conference tourney moving the needle guy, but I do think our current situation requires BET success. Numbers seem to indicate we're in trouble with a loss in the BET post Depaul, whether we're in 7/10 or 3/6 game. 9-9 with a Creighton loss instead of a Depaul loss I'd be a little more bullish, but that ship has sailed.

[muguru]

I'm always worried when it comes to MU and the tourney, I NEVER trust the committee.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'm always worried when it comes to MU and the tourney, I NEVER trust the committee.

We know

[AZMarqfan]

 There are certain things Marquette can control, however, it would help if no/few teams play their way into the tournament through their conference tournaments. Marquette's position is very vulnerable

[MU82]

Why does anyone think MU can win the next 2 games, when Wojo has NEVER won 3 straight Big East games in his 4 years here?

Because it's not really a streak, it's one win x3. And any team can win once.

BTW, Andrei, I really liked your article. A lot of great info there.