[Paint Touches] What you need to know about S. Carolina's offense

[PaintTouches]

They can't shoot, but you really, really, REALLY don't want to zone them.

https://painttouches.com/2017/03/17/what-you-need-to-know-about-s-carolinas-offense/

[MUBigDance]

Nice article.

So key things to look for by halftime.
Who is winning the foul battle low. Heldt and Fischer <= 2 each. We're good.

Also freaky shooting stat outliers. SC shooting well from outside or MU not.

The Zone stat on SC is very interesting. We go man and stay out of foul trouble we will win.

[tower912]

Free throws may matta.     To summarize, SC can't shoot, particularly jumpers off of the dribble.    Their best offense is to aggressively attack the basket and go to the foul line.     Hmmmmmmmm.     Yes, this matches up well with MU's defensive proclivities.   

[GoldenDieners32]

Free throws may matta.     To summarize, SC can't shoot, particularly jumpers off of the dribble.    Their best offense is to aggressively attack the basket and go to the foul line.     Hmmmmmmmm.     Yes, this matches up well with MU's defensive proclivities.

for once they matta

[MUMountin]

So after reading both this and Marquette Wire's article, I wondered about SC and offensive fouls, given how aggressively they attack the basket.   

For those with access to the advanced stats, is there any data to indicate how many offensive fouls per game Thornwell et al draw? 

It seems to me that if they can't shoot well, it would be best to have a regular diet of help defense coming over and planting themselves to draw a charge rather than trying to contest the shot.  Either get the foul, or force them to take the shot over us.  This seems like the easiest way to neutralize their ability to draw fouls.  I seem to remember some teams doing this against our Buzz teams that were built on creating contact, and how infuriating it would be when our slashers would just throw up a bad layup because they expected to draw a foul.

[rocky_warrior]

Great analysis, thanks!

[PaintTouches]

For those with access to the advanced stats, is there any data to indicate how many offensive fouls per game Thornwell et al draw? 

Haven't found a breakdown of type of foul, but KenPom tells us Thornwell only commits 2.7 fouls per 40 min, so that tells me he doesn't get many offensive fouls called against him. Dozier commits 4.0 per 40, but again, that's on both sides of the court.

[muwarrior69]

Since it is essentially a home game for SC, how much home cooking are the refs going to feed SC. I can remember George Thompson having 3 fouls within opening minutes of our game against Kentucky at Kentucky. It was tap city from the get go. I just hope it is fun game to watch and our walk ons don't have to start the second half as half our team has fouled out.

[GoldenDieners32]

All you need to know is their offense is bad

[mu03eng]

Since it is essentially a home game for SC, how much home cooking are the refs going to feed SC. I can remember George Thompson having 3 fouls within opening minutes of our game against Kentucky at Kentucky. It was tap city from the get go. I just hope it is fun game to watch and our walk ons don't have to start the second half as half our team has fouled out.

Not as home game as you think....non-partisan and Duke fans will be in our corner. Betting crowd will be at least 50/50 split with "our" 50 being us, Duke, and non-SC fans.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Not as home game as you think....non-partisan and Duke fans will be in our corner. Betting crowd will be at least 50/50 split with "our" 50 being us, Duke, and non-SC fans.

Based on my experience last year, non-affiliated people start to leave at halftime unless the game is super exciting when you tip off at 950 eastern.  More likely we have a benign or slightly unfriendly environment.

[MUMountin]

Haven't found a breakdown of type of foul, but KenPom tells us Thornwell only commits 2.7 fouls per 40 min, so that tells me he doesn't get many offensive fouls called against him. Dozier commits 4.0 per 40, but again, that's on both sides of the court.

Hmmm...thanks.  Certainly, some are better at attacking the rim and getting fouled without being out of control than others.  But, I just have to assume that when they are that aggressive, there has to be something that they do that can be used against them.  Hopefully the coaches have found something in the film to exploit.

[tower912]

JB, in your matrices, do free throws matter for a team like South Carolina, whose offense is predicated on getting to the line and drawing fouls since the rest of their shooting is so poor?     Andrei lays out pretty clearly that SC's best hope for points is to get to the line.   Or, does eFG% cover the percentage of overall points that SC gets from the line?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

JB, in your matrices, do free throws matter for a team like South Carolina, whose offense is predicated on getting to the line and drawing fouls since the rest of their shooting is so poor?     Andrei lays out pretty clearly that SC's best hope for points is to get to the line.   Or, does eFG% cover the percentage of overall points that SC gets from the line?

Its not that FTs don't matta. FT% don't matta. Getting to the line absolutely mattas.

[PaintTouches]

Its not that FTs don't matta. FT% don't matta. Getting to the line absolutely mattas.

Exactly. SC scores less than 1.0 PPP on offense this season. So if they were to somehow get to the line for two shots every possession, even if they only hit 50% of those free throws, that would be a better, more efficient offense than they currently have. 

[brewcity77]

JB, in your matrices, do free throws matter for a team like South Carolina, whose offense is predicated on getting to the line and drawing fouls since the rest of their shooting is so poor?     Andrei lays out pretty clearly that SC's best hope for points is to get to the line.   Or, does eFG% cover the percentage of overall points that SC gets from the line?

Free throw percentage doesn't matter. But if they get to the line 30 times and we get there 8, that matters. I went through SC's season and evaluated how reliably eFG% predicted the winner. The eFG% winner had a record of 26-6, a winning percentage of 81.3%.

The six exceptions were games against Seton Hall, TAMU, Florida, Georgia, and twice against Mississippi State. In those outliers, the team that won the FTA/FGA ratio won every game. Most likely, eFG% will determine the winner, but keeping South Carolina off the line, especially in a close game (avg 4.7 point margin in the outliers) is our next best friend.