13 Teams for 9 Spots

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Arkansas:UGA
Xavier: @DPL
USC: WASH
Providence: @SJU
Middle Tennessee State: FAU
Syracuse: GT
Wake Forest: @VT
Illinois: @RUT
Illinois State: N/A
Current Cut Off
Rhode Island: DAV
California: @COLO
Vanderbilt: FLA
Kansas State: TTU

The bubble keeps getting smaller and smaller. Houston has eliminated itself by losing to Cincinnati. That was their last chance to get a signature win. They are in the next 4 out and a win at home vs ECU is not enough to move them up 5 spots.

Seton Hall also moves off the bubble. The actually moved off yesterday, but I miscalculated the tie-breakers in the BET. I thought they could still see Depaul in the first round but I was wrong. Thanks to those who pointed it out. The only have a road game at Butler left and a loss there does not hurt them.

Marquette is now at the point where I don't think anyone currently outside the tournament could catch them. Even if Rhode Island, Cal, Vandy, and K State all win this weekend and we lose, I think Marquette is still in over them.

Again, this exercise does not factor in the possibility of extraordinary conference tournament results and bid-stealers. For example, if K-State goes on a tear and beats Kansas and Baylor in the B12 tournament (but loses in the final), they could absolutely get in over Marquette. It is possible the 4+ bids could get stolen and then Marquette is very much near the bubble.

There is also the human element of the committee. While the experts in the field say Marquette is 9 teams away from being out of the tournament, that doesn't necessarily mean that the committee agrees.  They could see Marquette as first four out for all we know. I can't imagine what argument they could use to justify it but they are only human after all. Of course...this could also mean that they view Marquette as a 6 seed right now and we are all worrying for nothing.

In the end, let's just smoke Creighton and then win the BET to remove all doubt eh?

[BM1090]

Arkansas:UGA
Xavier: @DPL
USC: WASH
Providence: @SJU
Middle Tennessee State: FAU
Syracuse: GT
Wake Forest: @VT
Illinois: @RUT
Illinois State: N/A
Current Cut Off
Rhode Island: DAV
California: @COLO
Vanderbilt: FLA
Kansas State: TTU

The bubble keeps getting smaller and smaller. Houston has eliminated itself by losing to Cincinnati. That was their last chance to get a signature win. They are in the next 4 out and a win at home vs ECU is not enough to move them up 5 spots.

Seton Hall also moves off the bubble. The actually moved off yesterday, but I miscalculated the tie-breakers in the BET. I thought they could still see Depaul in the first round but I was wrong. Thanks to those who pointed it out. The only have a road game at Butler left and a loss there does not hurt them.

Marquette is now at the point where I don't think anyone currently outside the tournament could catch them. Even if Rhode Island, Cal, Vandy, and K State all win this weekend and we lose, I think Marquette is still in over them.

Again, this exercise does not factor in the possibility of extraordinary conference tournament results and bid-stealers. For example, if K-State goes on a tear and beats Kansas and Baylor in the B12 tournament (but loses in the final), they could absolutely get in over Marquette. It is possible the 4+ bids could get stolen and then Marquette is very much near the bubble.

There is also the human element of the committee. While the experts in the field say Marquette is 9 teams away from being out of the tournament, that doesn't necessarily mean that the committee agrees.  They could see Marquette as first four out for all we know. I can't imagine what argument they could use to justify it but they are only human after all. Of course...this could also mean that they view Marquette as a 6 seed right now and we are all worrying for nothing.

In the end, let's just smoke Creighton and then win the BET to remove all doubt eh?

I'd probably put Arkansas and Providence above us. But even so, I feel really good with those 6 teams behind us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'd probably put Arkansas and Providence above us. But even so, I feel really good with those 6 teams behind us.

Yep.  Agreed.  I like our resume better than PC's but, the fact that they swept us I think gets them a bump in front of us.  At this point Arkansas is a lock as the SEC's 4th team, IMO. A loss to Georgia this weekend is not going to bounce them. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'd probably put Arkansas and Providence above us. But even so, I feel really good with those 6 teams behind us.

Right now Arkansas is above us. But a home loss to Georgia would move them down. I agree with JJJJJ that they are almost guaranteed to be in, but I could see a situation where they lose and everyone behind them wins and they get left home.

Providence has some ugly warts on their resume. Losses to St. John's (128) at home, at Boston College (206), and at Depaul (231). Adding another sub 100 loss to St. John's could be enough to keep them out.

Man, I didn't realize that we were Providence's 1 win in 5 games when we lost at home. Can you imagine if Katin had made that last shot? PC goes on a 5 game losing streak only to follow it up with a 5 game winning streak? Crazy

[Herman Cain]

Right now Arkansas is above us. But a home loss to Georgia would move them down. I agree with JJJJJ that they are almost guaranteed to be in, but I could see a situation where they lose and everyone behind them wins and they get left home.

Providence has some ugly warts on their resume. Losses to St. John's (128) at home, at Boston College (206), and at Depaul (231). Adding another sub 100 loss to St. John's could be enough to keep them out.

Man, I didn't realize that we were Providence's 1 win in 5 games when we lost at home. Can you imagine if Katin had made that last shot? PC goes on a 5 game losing streak only to follow it up with a 5 game winning streak? Crazy

Cooley is well liked by the committee.  PC just needs to get the job done versus The Johnnies.

[BM1090]

Cooley is well liked by the committee.  PC just needs to get the job done versus The Johnnies.

I can't handle you sometimes

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Pc will lose to sju.

Also thanks for all the work tamu but u realize this is wholly one person's opinion, right?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Pc will lose to sju.

Also thanks for all the work tamu but u realize this is wholly one person's opinion, right?

We'd all love to see how your opinion differs.  Please do share.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Pc will lose to sju.

Also thanks for all the work tamu but u realize this is wholly one person's opinion, right?

Actually it's 1 person analyzing the opinions of 109 people.

[MUBigDance]

Legit analysis...and TAMU give proper deference to the committee of human beings who make these decisions.

As a bonus, it provides a baseline to compare to the real list. It will reveal how the committee thinks.

TAMU I would be interested in your final 68 (if there's enough time to post it between conference finals and selection Sunday).

thanks

[jsglow]

You guys are way better than I am at this but my sense is that Providence is IN, we're darn close, and Xavier is one DePaul loss (with two chances) away from an NIT bid.  Clearly a Seton Hall win gets them IN but I have no feel on a loss.  Could a Seton Hall win steal our spot?  A couple of teams are going to soil themselves and lose their bid.  Maybe 1-2 (like Vandy) win a big one and dance.

Plus doesn't the committee kind of do it like TAMU?  There's a big check by Northwestern's name after the Michigan.  They're done looking at that.

[PJDunn]

Just want to see the BE get 7.  MU should be in, beat Creighton and win 1 in the BE tourney and we will at worst be a 9 seed. 

[brewcity77]

glow, I really think we're getting 7 in and they're all deserved. I don't think wins by Big East teams will hurt us. I'm far more worried about a team like Vandy, Iowa, St John's, or Wake Forest getting hot, but even then I still think we're safe, and think as long as Xavier sweeps DePaul, we're getting 7 in.

[bilsu]

We really need Xavier to beat DePaul twice. Maybe it is more for seeding, but I know the committee looks at your record against the field. Xavier getting in gives us two wins over the teams in the field. Xavier not getting in takes those two wins away. Also, Xavier not getting in devalues our wins against them. Our four second half wins would be against last place DePaul, 8th place St. John's and two wins against 7th place Xavier and we lost to 9th place Georgetown and  8th place St. John's. We need the Xavier wins to good wins. If Xavier losses to DePaul & we lose to Creighton their is not a lot for us to be confident about.

[brewcity77]

I've often wondered about that "against the field" metric. What if you have two wins against the last team and a bid thief earns a bid on the last day, knocking them out? Does that knock your profile down too? Seems odd to use "against the field" when the field isn't yet set.

[muguru]

I think Providence might be one of the most discussed teams in the room on selection Sunday. They have done some good things, but boy, it's hard to get past those three sub 100 losses(and potentially a 4th tomorrow), that includes two against 200+. No other major conference team in the country has more than 1 of those, and most have none. I'm curious to know if a team has ever gotten an at large with 3 sub 100 losses, with two of them being 200+. I'm guessing if that has happened, it's been very rare.

[Herman Cain]

I think Providence might be one of the most discussed teams in the room on selection Sunday. They have done some good things, but boy, it's hard to get past those three sub 100 losses(and potentially a 4th tomorrow), that includes two against 200+. No other major conference team in the country has more than 1 of those, and most have none. I'm curious to know if a team has ever gotten an at large with 3 sub 100 losses, with two of them being 200+. I'm guessing if that has happened, it's been very rare.

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

[Bocephys]

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

[#UnleashSean]

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

my group calls him patches. IS that bad?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

This is a guaranteed scoop takes.

[MU82]

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

You are precious.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

Dates back to the Great Bat Attack

[wildbillsb]

my group calls him patches. IS that bad?

"bad?", I don't know.   Those of us who have endured the same affliction for years have learned to get by - as would you, I'm sure.

[Newsdreams]

Cooley is a very popular coach.  Part of it has to do with peoples sympathy for that darn hair condition he has. I think Providence gets in. It would be good for the Big East if they did. MU benefits from that.

Are you Scoop Takes?