Luke Winn -- MU a contender for NC

[HarveysWallbangers]

Henry Sugar should like this. It uses some kind of formula that has Marquette as a National Title contender.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/luke_winn/01/02/early.warnings/index.html

[ToddPacker]

I certainly love this kind of national attention, but it feels similar to last season when we were getting pub as a potential final four team and then lost to NDSU at home.  Still, I would rather have high expectations than not.  It is going to be a fun ride.  Just hope it lasts a little longer than the last two!

[Henry Sugar]

This is the first time I actually read through the whole article.  I did really find it interesting about the info on the top 25 Defensive Efficiency and Offensive Efficiency for the Elite Eight.  For those familiar with Pythagorean Win % from baseball, it's the same basic concept for basketball. 

Pomeroy presently has us as their #3 overall team, so his info is aligned with what Luke Winn is saying. 

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

The concept of it is certainly very good, but I'm not sure that I believe we will count as a NC contender.  No, I'm positive that we won't be a NC contender. 

Problem is that our Defensive Efficiency isn't as good against the better teams.  Duke got a rating of 113.8 against us and UW got a rating of 107.2.  The point of Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency is that it's supposed to account for blowouts, but we've still only moved up in the DRtg because of the cupcake season.  (see graph)



Our Offensive Efficiency has been consistently very good this season, but I'll have more belief in us if we can maintain the DRtg during Big East play.