Another year no NCAA tournament....no reason to play this year

[Herman Cain]

Let me help your feelings with some facts.

Villanova: Loses 28% of its production (keep in mind high major average is 51%), adds Eric Paschall (15.9 ppg and 5.5 rpg for Fordam in 14-15), Omari Spellman (5 star freshman), Donte DiVincenzo (bench player that missed 32 games due to injury), Tim Delaney (3 star PF coming off redshirt), and Dylan Painter (4 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Xavier: Loses 37% of its production, adds RaShid Gaston (15.5 ppg and 9.6 rpg for Norfolk state in 14-15), Quentin Goodin (4 star freshman), Tyrique Jones (4 star freshman), and Eddie Ekiyor (3 star freshman)

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Creighton: Loses 29% of its production, adds Marcus Foster (12.5 ppg and .347 3P% for Kansas State in 14-15), Justin Patton (4 star PF coming off redshirt), Martin Krampelj (bench player returning from a 28 game injury), and Davion Mintz (3 star freshman).

Note: Similar to Marquette, played an awful schedule for RPI last season. Was a top 40 team in KenPom.

Conclusion: 16-17 team significantly better than 15-16 team

Seton Hall: Loses 35% of its production, adds Jevon Thomas (4.5 ppg and 3.3 apg for Kansas State in 14-15), Myles Powell (4 star freshman), and Eron Gordon (3.5 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team slightly better than 15-16 team

Butler: Loses 49% of its production, adds Kethan Savaga (11.7 ppg and 4.8 rpg for George Washington in 14-15), Avery Woodson (9.6 ppg and .430 3P% for Memphis in 15-16), Joey Brunk (4 star freshman), Kamar Badlwin (3 star freshman) Sean McDermott (3 star SG coming off redshirt), and Henry Baddley (3 star freshman)

Conclusion: 16-17 team similar to or slightly worse than 15-16 team

Georgetown: Loses 32% of its production, adds Rodney Pryor (18.0 ppg and 8.0 rpg for Robert Morris in 15-16), Akoy Agau (0.9 ppg and 1.1 rpg for Louisville in 13-14), Paul White (bench player returning from 26 game injury), Jagan Mosley (3 star freshman), Jonathan Mulmore (juco PG), George Muresan (unranked freshman)

Notes: Played a poor RPI schedule, was ranked in the top 60 by KenPom

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Marquette: Loses 25% of its production, adds Katin Reinhardt (11.4 ppg and .373 3P% for USC in 15-16), Andrew Rowsey (19.2 ppg and .382 3P% for UNC Asheville in 14-15), Markus Howard (4 star freshman), and Sam Hauser (4 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Providence: Loses 58% of its production, adds Isaiah Jackson (8.7 ppg and .356 3P% for George Mason in 14-15), Alpha Diallo (4 star freshman), Maliek White (3 star freshman),  Kalif Young (3 star freshman), and Emmitt Holt (JUCO PF)

Conclusion: 15-16 team better than 16-17 team

Depaul: Loses 40% of its production, adds Chris Harrison-Docks (10.0 ppg and .380 3P% for Western Kentucky in 15-16), Brandon Cyrus (3 star freshman), Levi Cook (3 star freshman), Algevon Eichelberger (3 star freshman), and Devin Gage (3 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

St. John's: Loses 58% of its production, adds Bashir Ahmed (#2 ranked JUCO), Shamorie Ponds (4 star freshman), Richard Freudenberg (4 star freshman), Tariq Owens (1.2 ppg and 1.1 rpg for Tennessee in 14-15).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

There's some oversimplification here, and I'm not sharing everything, but the facts point to 8/10 of the teams in Big East improving from last season. Of the remaining 2, one will be around the same level they were last season.

You can't look at teams in a vacuum. You have to look at whats happening in the entirety of college basketball. Remember how everyone kept commenting that the good teams were all senior heavy last season? That was true, everywhere but the Big East. All those senior stars are graduating while the Big East stars are getting a year older and better. Yeah a few stars like DSR, Henry Ellenson, and Isaiah Whitehead are leaving, but they are basically the only players of significance leaving from their respective teams. Their production will be easily replaced. Providence and Butler each lose two huge stars and they will take a step back as a result. Only 2 Big East teams are above the high major average for production lost (Providence and St. John's).

Big East will be a BEast next season. Great for the conference, bad for Marquette unfortunately. I think we might end up being that 7th team.

C'mon man. You can't judge a season based on a team does in a few tournament games. You judge based on a season. And last season showed three great teams, two very good teams, three good teams (who all had RPI scheduling issues), and two very bad teams. There's a reason the Big East had such a dominant non-conference season.

Add to St. Johns.,Marcus Lovett , G. will also be eligible. He sat out for academic reasons last year. Was a top 100 recruit.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Maybe Nova is better next year "on paper". The chance that they're better on the basketball court are close to zero.

Not a guarantee but a helluva lot closer to 100% chance they'll be better on the court than 0%.

Nova was a great team last season who also got on a torrid run during the NCAA tournament. Winning the tournament is obviously the goal, but when judging how good a team is, you have to look at the whole season, not just the last 6 games. Now in Nova's case, whether you look at just the tournament or the whole season, they were the best team in the country last season. But their squad next season will be even better, which is a scary thought. Still unlikely they win the NCAA tournament because anything can happen in March. But that doesn't mean that if they don't win the national championship again that 16-17 squad isn't better than the 15-16 squad.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Add to St. Johns.,Marcus Lovett , G. will also be eligible. He sat out for academic reasons last year. Was a top 100 recruit.

I didn't add him because I hadn't heard if he had been officially cleared yet. Has that happened?

Thank you for pointing that out though, he will likely be cleared and would definitely make the argument for SJU improving even stronger.

[Marcus92]

Appreciate the deep dive, TAMU. Great info. Leapfrogging at least 3 teams will be no small task.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yes, Nova will be very good.  but, it would be hard to have the same chemistry and effectiveness it had with Archie and Ochefu at PG/C this past season.

This is a good point. There will always be traits, skills, and factors that are impossible to measure. That's why Lenny is correct, games aren't played on paper, they're played on the court.

But the stuff on paper sure means a helluva lot.

[Jay Bee]

"Production" not adjusted for effectiveness and other factors is dangerous. Too high-level of an analysis to take a lot of meaning from.. just another data point. Not worthless, but dangerous.

Team A: Returns a bunch of guys who were sophomores and juniors last year and who performed like sh1t.

Team B: Loses a lot of crappy seniors who played a lot of minutes and accounting for a lot of 'production'... guys who sat a lot as freshman & sophomores but are good will get the playing time...

Team B looks more appealing, despite the production "deficit"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

"Production" not adjusted for effectiveness and other factors is dangerous. Too high-level of an analysis to take a lot of meaning from.. just another data point. Not worthless, but dangerous.

Team A: Returns a bunch of guys who were sophomores and juniors last year and who performed like sh1t.

Team B: Loses a lot of crappy seniors who played a lot of minutes and accounting for a lot of 'production'... guys who sat a lot as freshman & sophomores but are good will get the playing time...

Team B looks more appealing, despite the production "deficit"

Absolutely agree. And if I had the time or someone was giving me a paycheck, I would go in greater detail to get a more accurate picture. As it is, I'm looking for a general sense of direction, is a team going to be be better, worse, or about the same as they were last year. There will always be teams that defy what the basic numbers are saying (I had UCLA as a top 25 last year, yikes) but it usually it gives a pretty good sense of who is in what range.

[Stretchdeltsig]

Let me help your feelings with some facts.

Villanova: Loses 28% of its production (keep in mind high major average is 51%), adds Eric Paschall (15.9 ppg and 5.5 rpg for Fordam in 14-15), Omari Spellman (5 star freshman), Donte DiVincenzo (bench player that missed 32 games due to injury), Tim Delaney (3 star PF coming off redshirt), and Dylan Painter (4 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Xavier: Loses 37% of its production, adds RaShid Gaston (15.5 ppg and 9.6 rpg for Norfolk state in 14-15), Quentin Goodin (4 star freshman), Tyrique Jones (4 star freshman), and Eddie Ekiyor (3 star freshman)

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Creighton: Loses 29% of its production, adds Marcus Foster (12.5 ppg and .347 3P% for Kansas State in 14-15), Justin Patton (4 star PF coming off redshirt), Martin Krampelj (bench player returning from a 28 game injury), and Davion Mintz (3 star freshman).

Note: Similar to Marquette, played an awful schedule for RPI last season. Was a top 40 team in KenPom.

Conclusion: 16-17 team significantly better than 15-16 team

Seton Hall: Loses 35% of its production, adds Jevon Thomas (4.5 ppg and 3.3 apg for Kansas State in 14-15), Myles Powell (4 star freshman), and Eron Gordon (3.5 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team slightly better than 15-16 team

Butler: Loses 49% of its production, adds Kethan Savaga (11.7 ppg and 4.8 rpg for George Washington in 14-15), Avery Woodson (9.6 ppg and .430 3P% for Memphis in 15-16), Joey Brunk (4 star freshman), Kamar Badlwin (3 star freshman) Sean McDermott (3 star SG coming off redshirt), and Henry Baddley (3 star freshman)

Conclusion: 16-17 team similar to or slightly worse than 15-16 team

Georgetown: Loses 32% of its production, adds Rodney Pryor (18.0 ppg and 8.0 rpg for Robert Morris in 15-16), Akoy Agau (0.9 ppg and 1.1 rpg for Louisville in 13-14), Paul White (bench player returning from 26 game injury), Jagan Mosley (3 star freshman), Jonathan Mulmore (juco PG), George Muresan (unranked freshman)

Notes: Played a poor RPI schedule, was ranked in the top 60 by KenPom

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Marquette: Loses 25% of its production, adds Katin Reinhardt (11.4 ppg and .373 3P% for USC in 15-16), Andrew Rowsey (19.2 ppg and .382 3P% for UNC Asheville in 14-15), Markus Howard (4 star freshman), and Sam Hauser (4 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Providence: Loses 58% of its production, adds Isaiah Jackson (8.7 ppg and .356 3P% for George Mason in 14-15), Alpha Diallo (4 star freshman), Maliek White (3 star freshman),  Kalif Young (3 star freshman), and Emmitt Holt (JUCO PF)

Conclusion: 15-16 team better than 16-17 team

Depaul: Loses 40% of its production, adds Chris Harrison-Docks (10.0 ppg and .380 3P% for Western Kentucky in 15-16), Brandon Cyrus (3 star freshman), Levi Cook (3 star freshman), Algevon Eichelberger (3 star freshman), and Devin Gage (3 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

St. John's: Loses 58% of its production, adds Bashir Ahmed (#2 ranked JUCO), Shamorie Ponds (4 star freshman), Richard Freudenberg (4 star freshman), Tariq Owens (1.2 ppg and 1.1 rpg for Tennessee in 14-15).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

There's some oversimplification here, and I'm not sharing everything, but the facts point to 8/10 of the teams in Big East improving from last season. Of the remaining 2, one will be around the same level they were last season.

You can't look at teams in a vacuum. You have to look at whats happening in the entirety of college basketball. Remember how everyone kept commenting that the good teams were all senior heavy last season? That was true, everywhere but the Big East. All those senior stars are graduating while the Big East stars are getting a year older and better. Yeah a few stars like DSR, Henry Ellenson, and Isaiah Whitehead are leaving, but they are basically the only players of significance leaving from their respective teams. Their production will be easily replaced. Providence and Butler each lose two huge stars and they will take a step back as a result. Only 2 Big East teams are above the high major average for production lost (Providence and St. John's).

Big East will be a BEast next season. Great for the conference, bad for Marquette unfortunately. I think we might end up being that 7th team.

C'mon man. You can't judge a season based on a team does in a few tournament games. You judge based on a season. And last season showed three great teams, two very good teams, three good teams (who all had RPI scheduling issues), and two very bad teams. There's a reason the Big East had such a dominant non-conference season.

You under estimate MU.  We will surprise you big time!

[Herman Cain]

I didn't add him because I hadn't heard if he had been officially cleared yet. Has that happened?

Thank you for pointing that out though, he will likely be cleared and would definitely make the argument for SJU improving even stronger.

There is nothing on the Johnny message board indicating that he has not been cleared.

[hoyasincebirth]

I don't know about them being derailed by injuries. There was only two, Paul White who I don't think is very good, and Bradley Hayes who was out for six games long after their season went to crap. You other comments are fair but I don't think you've looked at the entire picture. Every team in the Big East but Providence and possibly Butler is going to be better this season. I'd consider Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost to be locks for the top 4 spots. Butler, Georgetown, and Marquette will be in a dog fight for spots 5 and 6. Number 7 gets left out.

I share your dislike of DSR but he was still a helluva a player. They also lose Bradley Hayes who turned out to be a solid player last season. They bring in Rodney Pryor who will help make up a lot of DSR's scoring. But they are really shallow at guard. They will be relying on either a not very good Tre Campbell or JUCO transfer Jonathan Mulmore to run the point. They will be better than they were last year. But I don't think by enough to get into the top 5 in conference let alone top 3.

Bradley Hayes was granted a 5th year of eligibility. We only lose DSR.

Injuries: We lost Paul White and Akou Agau for the season before the season. We were 9-5 in the BE when Hayes went out with his injury. We also lost Tre Campbell for a game or two in the beginning of the the year and at least allegedly was effected all year.

[jsglow]

Marquette will be better than you think.  Just like the NBA is trending to smaller, faster, shooting teams, Marquette will surprise many teams this year with its ability to make threes and have a high scoring games.  I am bullish that we will compete at a high level and make the NCAA tournament.

Too bad Steph isn't suiting up for us.

[brewcity77]

Bradley Hayes was granted a 5th year of eligibility. We only lose DSR.

Injuries: We lost Paul White and Akou Agau for the season before the season. We were 9-5 in the BE when Hayes went out with his injury. We also lost Tre Campbell for a game or two in the beginning of the the year and at least allegedly was effected all year.

Considering Georgetown went 7-11 in Big East play, I'm pretty sure this is completely inaccurate.

If you mean 9-5 overall, that did happen, with three of those losses in home buy games.

I do think Georgetown will be improved, but that's like saying we'd improve on our 13-19 record in 2015. I mean, barring being DePaul, how can you not improve on that kind of clusterexpletive of a season?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Bradley Hayes was granted a 5th year of eligibility. We only lose DSR.

Injuries: We lost Paul White and Akou Agau for the season before the season. We were 9-5 in the BE when Hayes went out with his injury. We also lost Tre Campbell for a game or two in the beginning of the the year and at least allegedly was effected all year.

I didn't know about Hayes, that's great news for Georgetown.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Considering Georgetown went 7-11 in Big East play, I'm pretty sure this is completely inaccurate.

If you mean 9-5 overall, that did happen, with three of those losses in home buy games.

I do think Georgetown will be improved, but that's like saying we'd improve on our 13-19 record in 2015. I mean, barring being DePaul, how can you not improve on that kind of clusterexpletive of a season?

but they did beat WI!

[MerrittsMustache]

Considering Georgetown went 7-11 in Big East play, I'm pretty sure this is completely inaccurate.

If you mean 9-5 overall, that did happen, with three of those losses in home buy games.

Georgetown was 7-5 when he got hurt and lost 6 straight BE games to end the regular season. Gtown was 9-5 at home at that point though, maybe he got his columns mixed up.

[hoyasincebirth]

Yes I meant 7-5.

I missed this earlier or perhaps it was added after I saw the original post.

Let me help your feelings with some facts.
Georgetown:
Notes: Played a poor RPI schedule, was ranked in the top 60 by KenPom

Huh? our RPI SOS was 28. We played a very strong schedule. Our RPI was poor because we didn't win may games. Plus Marquette certainly doesn't have room to throw stones at anyone's schedule.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yes I meant 7-5.

I missed this earlier or perhaps it was added after I saw the original post.
Huh? our RPI SOS was 28. We played a very strong schedule. Our RPI was poor because we didn't win may games. Plus Marquette certainly doesn't have room to throw stones at anyone's schedule.

All I mean by poor RPI schedule is that you were a better team than your RPI indicated. We were also better than our RPI indicated. But while our problem was scheduling weak team, y'all's was biting off more than you could chew (and losing to teams you shouldn't).

[Warriors, Come Out and Playeeyay]

Famous man once said :

I'm not much for giving inspirational addresses, but I'd just like to point out that every newspaper in the country has picked us to finish last. The local press seems to think that we'd save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I'm for wasting sportswriters' time. So I figured we ought to hang around for a while and see if we can give 'em all a nice big sh*tburger to eat!

Wojo has something to prove w/ a deep roster and another year under their belts.  Sure, size is lacking, but hopefully they have the heart to contend!