I'd say the key matchups are:
- How many turnovers Duke is able to force
- How well Pitt does at preventing open shots (especially from three) to keep the FG% down
- The offensive rebound % that Pitt is able to pull down. This is a strength vs. strength matchup.
In case anyone is interested how these matchups ended up.
Duke forced a Turnover Rate of 27% on twenty-two turnovers by Pitt. Pitt averages 19%, which is quite good.
Advantage Duke - they forced the extra turnoversDuke had effective FG% (that's FG% adjusted to account for the extra value of a three) of 41%. Duke averages 57.5%.
Advantage Pitt - they limited the open looksPitt got an Offensive Rebounding % of 37.8%. They average 42%, so this is down, but Duke usually only lets opponents get a rate of 30%. Not only that, but Duke only got an OR% of 23%. Clearly, DeJuan Blair with his 20 RB (7 OR) played a yuge role here.
Advantage Pitt - they controlled the boards on both endsBlair is going to win BIG EAST Newcomer of the Year and it won't even be close.