Pomeroy season projections are up

[Eye]

MU projection

20-11, 9-9 BE (he's formally got MU at 19-11 without opponent set for 2nd game in NYC, but figuring they'd be a slight favorite over Arizona St in consolation game if lost to LSU in semi's)

Individual wins and losses has MU at 21-10, 10-8 (sweep SJU and DU, swept by nova)

11-2 non-conference

Projects 68th in offense, 48th in defense, 212th in tempo (formula, which is what produces all this, probably doesn't take into account upgraded talent level leading to faster pace for MU, which might mean better offense but not as good a defense this year)

#54 nationally, 5th in BE (think he's got PC a little undervalued IMHO, but all by formula)

Might as well start it in October, they gotta the fill the field, right?

[Jay Bee]

Noteworthy?... in the BEast, only 2 wins are at a probability of 75% or higher (home vs. StJ & DePaul). Four losses have us at 25% or lower.

If Adj Off and Adj Tempo were actual -- which they are not -- you're looking at points per game 71.1. Last season MU's Adj Off was 2% higher than raw, while adj tempo was slightly lower.

Tempo, or possessions per game.. is a tough call this year. Ken has the D-I average at 68.0 for the season. Last year it was at 64.8. Quite a jump, although 2009-10 was 67.3.

we are market

[mu03eng]

Noteworthy?... in the BEast, only 2 wins are at a probability of 75% or higher (home vs. StJ & DePaul). Four losses have us at 25% or lower.

If Adj Off and Adj Tempo were actual -- which they are not -- you're looking at points per game 71.1. Last season MU's Adj Off was 2% higher than raw, while adj tempo was slightly lower.

Tempo, or possessions per game.. is a tough call this year. Ken has the D-I average at 68.0 for the season. Last year it was at 64.8. Quite a jump, although 2009-10 was 67.3.

we are market

I think we finish in the top 25 of the country at offensive tempo....this team will play fast

[martyconlonontherun]

Any hindsight analysis available for these stats? For the life of me, I have no clue how you can mathematically predict the impact of incoming freshmen and the returning guys who have matured. Just too many variables and unknown to form any kind of supported calculation.

[Dawson Rental]

Any hindsight analysis available for these stats? For the life of me, I have no clue how you can mathematically predict the impact of incoming freshmen and the returning guys who have matured. Just too many variables and unknown to form any kind of supported calculation.

Oh, its easy enough to do.  You just have to concede that sensitivity analysis is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Oh, its easy enough to do.  You just have to concede that sensitivity analysis is as wide as the Grand Canyon.

Damn liberals and their sensitivity analysis!

[Coleman]

MU projection

20-11, 9-9 BE (he's formally got MU at 19-11 without opponent set for 2nd game in NYC, but figuring they'd be a slight favorite over Arizona St in consolation game if lost to LSU in semi's)

Individual wins and losses has MU at 21-10, 10-8 (sweep SJU and DU, swept by nova)

11-2 non-conference

Projects 68th in offense, 48th in defense, 212th in tempo (formula, which is what produces all this, probably doesn't take into account upgraded talent level leading to faster pace for MU, which might mean better offense but not as good a defense this year)

#54 nationally, 5th in BE (think he's got PC a little undervalued IMHO, but all by formula)

Might as well start it in October, they gotta the fill the field, right?

Interesting. This almost exactly matches Sports Illustrated's prediction.

Definitely bubblicious, but I think 21-10 and 10-8 would get us in.

[NotAnAlum]

Depends on who the wins are against.  Xavier was a bubble team last year with a 9-9 record and no non con wins against ranked teams.  But they did have 4 wins in con against ranked teams and they won 2 more in the BE tourney.  Assuming we don't have any quality wins in the non con we'll need to win about the same amount (4).  Given the BE will likely be weaker this year getting 4 wins against ranked opponents even going 10-8 won't be easy since there may not be a lot of opportunities.

[mu03eng]

Depends on who the wins are against.  Xavier was a bubble team last year with a 9-9 record and no non con wins against ranked teams.  But they did have 4 wins in con against ranked teams and they won 2 more in the BE tourney.  Assuming we don't have any quality wins in the non con we'll need to win about the same amount (4).  Given the BE will likely be weaker this year getting 4 wins against ranked opponents even going 10-8 won't be easy since there may not be a lot of opportunities.

+1, with out schedule and the look of the BEast, if we go 10-8 in conference, one of those wins better be against Nova.

[Celtic Truth]

I can't stress the importance of our challenging non-con games enough. This is kind of unfortunate because I think we will be much better come BE conference time. People nationwide are going to judge us very strongly on how we play against Iowa, UW, LSU, ASU/NCST, and Belmont to some extent. Our other non conference opponents can only hurt us because we are expected to dominate all of those teams. We need to beat Belmont and win at least 2 of those other games if we want to make the tourney(assuming we are good but not great in the BE). However if we struggle in the non conference but then grow up quickly and dominate the BE(say 13-5 or 12-6 with a couple wins in NY) than we should get in because of how well our young team was playing at the time.