[Cracked Sidewalks]Anderson surges into top 100 Value Add Defenders: 9 Defensive Rebounds & Helped Make 2nd Best Offense Play like 333rd Best

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Anderson surges into top 100 Value Add Defenders: 9 Defensive Rebounds & Helped Make 2nd Best Offense Play like 333rd Best

Juan Anderson should rank as one of the top 100 defenders in the country after his performance Saturday. Coming into the game, Anderson's defensive Value Add ranked him as the 124th best defender of the 4000 Division 1 players (-1.82 means he takes away an average of 1.82 points per game from Marquette's opponents). That number will drop substantially after he grabbed an incredible nine defensive rebounds against the much taller Badgers, and was a key to holding Wisconsin to a pace of 90.7 points per 100 trips. Wisconsin ranks as the 2nd best offense in the country with 113.4 points per 100 trips adjusted for defense - but their Saturday total of 90.7 would make them the 333rd best offense.

Anderson should join fewer than 100 players in the country who take more than two points a game away from their opponents beyond what a replacement player would be expected to do with his defense. Below are each players season projections and actual Value Add at www.valueaddbasketball.com coming into Saturday's game.data base.

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You get this by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com, putting "Marquette" in the search box, and then hitting the arrow by the&nbsp;"Player" heading so each player's projection and actual Value Add are next to each other.

When you do the math, Juan, Matt, Steve and Duane have all been more than two points per game better than projected. It looked like they would add about 6.27 points per game to Marquette's margin above how Marquette would do if each was replaced by the 500th best Power Forward, Point Guard, Center and Small Forward/Swing Player. In fact, the four combine for a Value Add of 16.00 exactly, meaning without the four of them we would likely have lost to Wisconsin by 27 instead of by 11 points today.

Derrick's improvement was actually probably two points as well. Value Add is "politically correct" in that we never give a player a rating below ZERO and Derrick therefore had a 0.00 Projected Value add instead of a negative number. Remember that about 1500 of the D1 players have a 0.00. Derrick's actual Value Add has been 0.99 so he adds a point.

Today's performance will hurt everyone's offensive ratings. Despite Matt's great points, his five turnovers kept him down to a Rating of 89 points per 100 trips down the court against a top 10 Wisconsin defense that that was giving up the same on 88.9 points per 100 trips. Every other offensive player has a very low rating, except for the short appearances by Deonte and Sandy.

However, defensive ratings will get better after holding the 2nd-ranked offense in the country down so well. The team's best defensive player (Juan Anderson, -1.89 for taking two points a game away from MU opponent's) will have a phenomenal defensive improvement for his part in holding the Badgers' scoring down and grabbing nine defensive rebounds.

Source: Anderson surges into top 100 Value Add Defenders: 9 Defensive Rebounds &amp; Helped Make 2nd Best Offense Play like 333rd Best

[mu-rara]

Hey Ners,

Go puke all over Cracked Sidewalks for a while, PLEASE.

[brandx]

When you do the math, Juan, Matt, Steve and Duane have all been more than two points per game better than projected. It looked like they would add about 6.27 points per game to Marquette's margin above how Marquette would do if each was replaced by the 500th best Power Forward, Point Guard, Center and Small Forward/Swing Player. In fact, the four combine for a Value Add of 16.00 exactly, meaning without the four of them we would likely have lost to Wisconsin by 27 instead of by 11 points today.

You just wasted time saying that if we buzzcut players on the team and replaced them with worse players, we would be a worse team.

I could have told you the same thing without looking at some silly chart. With a way too small of a sample size.

Next, you'll probably want to convince us the UW-GB is gonna win it all this year. They are #1 in RPI, afterall.

[bamamarquettefan]

What? I don't see any of the words you attribute to me in your incoherent post.

I don't believe there is any way to dummy down an explanation low enough for you to grasp even  basic sports concepts like replacement players and wins above replacement. There were a couple of other neat stats the basketball world started to record a few.decades ago of which you are probably not aware.

Just to start to get you up to speed, a player gets credit for a "steal" when he takes the ball away from the other team. We also now record a "blocked shot" when a player prevents an opponent's shot from getting to the basket and having a chance to go in the basket.

I believe if you pay a little more attention to games and start to grasp these concepts you will find games much more.enjoyable.

[UticaBusBarn]

Bama, thank you for your post. It is always refreshing to read fact based comments and analysis.

One problem that arises in an off/rebuilding year is that the dominant observation offered by the casual fan falls under the Law of the Logical Argument. That is, anything is possible IF you don't know what you are talking about.

Cheers.

[NersEllenson]

Hey Ners,

Go puke all over Cracked Sidewalks for a while, PLEASE.

Thanks for the invite - Really don't need to puke all over Value Add Analysis - is it has it right on the money.  What the analysis tells me is Derrick is ranked as the 1553 best value add player in the country (worst on our team).  His amazing defense, actually doesn't look so good per Value Add - in fact it is the worst on the team.   

Deonte is the one guy who is not meeting his projected expectations (which affirms what we all have believed thus far - hopefully he gets squared away soon.)

[mu-rara]

Thanks for the invite - Really don't need to puke all over Value Add Analysis - is it has it right on the money.  What the analysis tells me is Derrick is ranked as the 1553 best value add player in the country (worst on our team).  His amazing defense, actually doesn't look so good per Value Add - in fact it is the worst on the team.   

Deonte is the one guy who is not meeting his projected expectations (which affirms what we all have believed thus far - hopefully he gets squared away soon.)

Just spend more time over there, please.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Biggest conclusion: Bama is a huge value add to the Marquette fan community

[brandx]

I don't believe there is any way to dummy down an explanation low enough for you to grasp even  basic sports concepts like replacement players and wins above replacement. There were a couple of other neat stats the basketball world started to record a few.decades ago of which you are probably not aware.

Just to start to get you up to speed, a player gets credit for a "steal" when he takes the ball away from the other team. We also now record a "blocked shot" when a player prevents an opponent's shot from getting to the basket and having a chance to go in the basket.

I believe if you pay a little more attention to games and start to grasp these concepts you will find games much more.enjoyable.

Two things and I will try to be brief and not as condescending as you. (After re-reading my post, maybe I deserved it since it was unclear and never really made the point I wanted to make.)

1. Wins above Replacement is a flawed inaccurate stat. I use advanced stats in my baseball analysis every winter and I use WAR for one thing only. After I download seasonal stats, I sort all pitchers and all batters using WAR. It is way too general and really doesn't tell me anything other than putting the list in a vague order of value. When I do pitching analysis, I'll use FIP/xFIP, K/BB ratio, BABIP, k/9, pitch % (% of fastballs, curves, changeups, etc. that each pitcher throws), and 3 year injury history among others. These all give more accurate information than WAR. Bill James says this about WAR (he was talking baseball, but the same problem is there in other sports):

I ASSUMED that WAR was a complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and ... they're not very impressive. They're not well thought through; they haven't made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don't know if I'm going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but ... we're not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are."

2. You were quite condescending in informing me that there is this new stat called "steals". I guess I must have missed that one. So let me ask you this. How do you quantify steals in your "advanced" stats? Do you differentiate between a steal when a team is playing zone or man-to-man? Do you differentiate between a steal where a player makes an active, aggressive play to get the steal as opposed to a player out of position on the weak side of a zone when the offensive player just happens to make a poor pass allowing the steal (maybe this could be called a "Burton" in the future)? Or is a steal just a steal? Are they all the same? Do they all reflect the same defensive ability? Or do you mindlessly just plug out-of-context numbers into a formula because "a steal is a steal"?

Advanced stats are fun and interesting, but they are ultimately unable to address the singular issues that matter the most. And if you are unable to figure out what these issues are, you shouldn't be playing with these kinds of numbers. Or you could wait for me to tell you.