Way Too Early Amateur Bracketology

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Hey Ya'll,

I'm too nerdy for my own good and had too much free time between graduating grad school and starting my new job. I looked at data for all 351 teams and tried to rank them as objectively as possible. I considered last season's RPI, BPI, and KenPom ratings, calculated what percentage of their offense each team was losing, determined what value their recruits bring based on espn, rivals, and scout, and factored what injuries/other random happenings I know about (sadly I found that a lot of players are not certain to return because of legal troubles).

What I got was a way too early bracketology. You'll find it below. I'm curious what others think. Any teams seem too high or low? Personally found it interesting that the process ended up putting us in line for a second round matchup with Bucky.

East
1. LOUISVILLE v. 16. DREXEL/TEXAS SOUTHERN
8. Pittsburgh v. 9. Colorado
5. Marquette v. 12. FLORIDA GULF COAST
4. Wisconsin v. 13. HARVARD
6. Georgetown v. 11. DENVER
3. Iowa v. 14. BELMONT
7. NEW MEXICO v. 10. Gonzaga
2. NORTH CAROLINA v. 15. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

Midwest
1. MICHIGAN STATE v. 16. WESTERN KENTUCKY/CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
8. WICHITA STATE v. 9. Iowa State
5. Connecticut v. 12. Alabama/California
4. CREIGHTON v. 13. STONY BROOK
6. Memphis v. 11. Providence
3. Duke v. 14. MANHATTAN
7. Notre Dame v. 10. Ole Miss
2. Michigan v. 15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY

West
1. OKLAHOMA STATE v. 16. UC IRVINE
8. BYU v. 9. Tennessee
5. Indiana v. 12. Maryland/Boise State
4. STANFORD v. 13. WEBER STATE
6. Villanova v. 11. Oregon
3. Syracuse v. 14. NEW MEXICO STATE
7. ST. MARY'S v. 10. Missouri
2. Ohio State v. 15. WRIGHT STATE

South
1. KENTUCKY v. 16. ROBERT MORRIS
8. Cincinnati v. 9. Saint Louis
5. Arizona v. 12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
4. Kansas v. 13. AKRON
6. Virginia v. 11. UCLA
3. VCU v. 14. DAVIDSON
7. Baylor v. 10. St. John's
2. Florida v. 15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

Last Four Byes
St. John's
Oregon
UCLA
Providence

Last Four In
Alabama
Maryland
Boise State
California

First Four Out
Butler
Purdue
Illinois
Kansas State

Next Four Out
Minnesota
San Diego State
Vanderbilt
North Carolina State

[frozena pizza]

Nice work.  Not sure why I am bothering to look at this in June, but all I can say is I can't wait for the Louisville game.

[verlo]

The only problem I have with this is that you have Creighton winning the BEast!?

[Galway Eagle]

Love it, respectfully disagree with a few things like providence and st johns i think has one more year to develop before their back in the dance but love the enthusiasm

[Aughnanure]

I guess should be Creighton expected to win the Big East?

4 seed to our 5 and G'Town's 6.

[Galway Eagle]

I guess should be Creighton expected to win the Big East?

4 seed to our 5 and G'Town's 6.

Or you could just look at the fact it's capitalized. 

[verlo]

Thanks for pointing out the obvious for me

[bilsu]

Talent wise I am not sure leaving Butler out is incorrect, but did you take into account coaching which is why I would put Butler in.

[dgies9156]

I think we're better than a 5. I'm guessing a 3 or a 4 if we play to potential.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The only problem I have with this is that you have Creighton winning the BEast!?

Looking at the numbers, Creighton was actually a top 20 team last year while we were a top 30. We are losing 45% of our offense whereas they are only losing 29%...and that's assuming that Gibbs DOESN'T get his sixth year of eligibility. If Gibbs comes back they get their lead assist man back in addition to 11% of their scoring. We have a much better recruiting class but not enough to makeup the difference in the other numbers. Don't get me wrong, I hope Marquette wins and think they will. I'm just going by what the numbers say.

Talent wise I am not sure leaving Butler out is incorrect, but did you take into account coaching which is why I would put Butler in.

Unfortunately I have no objective way to put coaching into account. I also don't know enough about all the coaches to be able to fairly evaluate how much better Stevens is than another coach. But that is certainly a flaw in this. Still, Butler is losing nearly half of it's offense, not too mention their lead rebounder and two of their legit three point shooters. They replace them with a collection a three star players. I love Stevens but I've picked Butler to finish 7th in the conference next season.

[Dawson Rental]

Florida Gulf Coast back in the NCAA?  You're putting a lot on Jamail's shoulders.

[2012 Warrior]

Little surprised Kansas only gets a 4 seed, they had quite a few freshman and sophomores get minutes last year.  I know Whithey, McLemore and KYoung are gone but they are bringing in a hell of a lot too

[Sunbelt15]

I would love to see the UNC vs. NCCU game 2 years out, to see if J. Ferguson has developed any.

[dgies9156]

No way we're a 5 if Becky Badger is a 4...

NO WAY NO HOW. NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

[bilsu]

No way we're a 5 if Becky Badger is a 4...

NO WAY NO HOW. NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

I would say our ceiling is a three and UW's is a four as I believe we have more overall talent. Either team could miss the tournament.

[Aughnanure]

I never trust any bracketology that has KU not winning the Big XII. And I hate KU. They're gonna roll that conference.

[hoyasincebirth]

Kansas, Marquette too low

Iowa, VCU, Creighton too high

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

No way we're a 5 if Becky Badger is a 4...

NO WAY NO HOW. NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

Sorry but the advanced metrics favor Bucky. They lose less offense than we do, bring in a decent recruiting class, and get Gasser back from injury. I would argue that we have a higher ceiling, I'm just not ready to declare us an elite team until either Derrick proves he can score, or Duane proves that he can live up to the hype.

I never trust any bracketology that has KU not winning the Big XII. And I hate KU. They're gonna roll that conference.

Oklahoma State rolls the Big XII this year. Feel free to remember this and call me out later if I'm wrong, but I would bet a large sum of money on the Cowboys this year. They return their entire team minus one bench player and bring in a great recruiting class. They are a one seed for sure this year.

Kansas, Marquette too low

Iowa, VCU, Creighton too high

I'm not buying into Kansas this year. They literally lost their entire starting lineup from last season. They have an elite recruiting class coming in, but I think its more likely that they pull a 2012-2013 Kentucky rather than a 2011-2012 Kentucky. Top 25 for sure but not top 10.

See above for my thoughts on us. Top 25 for sure but our PG situation makes me nervous. We will be a great team but can't be elite without a solid PG. Hopefully Duane is the answer.

Iowa is my Miami of 2013-2014. KenPom loved Iowa last season but they got overshadowed with how deep the Big 10 was. They will be very senior heavy and only lose about 9% of their offense from last season. Plus they welcome in Bo Ryan's favorite ex-badger J Uthoff. Three might be too high but we'll see.

VCU was a four seed last season and is trending up. If anything, three could be too low. Reddic and Graham will be a terror next season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them run the table on the A-10 next season (and joining us the next)

Creighton brings back everyone but their starting center and two seldom used bench players. They are my favorite to win the BEast.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Love it, respectfully disagree with a few things like providence and st johns i think has one more year to develop before their back in the dance but love the enthusiasm

Missed this one, sorry Boxer. (BTW I assume this MUBoxer from ESPN?)

You may be right about Providence, but I'm pretty sure about St. John's. Provided Lavin finally catches a break and doesn't have anymore off the court issues, they should be a tournament team easy. The only player they lose is Amir Garret, second guy off the bench. They replace him with a 5 star PG who could challenge Greene for the starting role. They will make a huge jump next season.

[Aughnanure]

Sorry but the advanced metrics favor Bucky. They lose less offense than we do, bring in a decent recruiting class, and get Gasser back from injury. I would argue that we have a higher ceiling, I'm just not ready to declare us an elite team until either Derrick proves he can score, or Duane proves that he can live up to the hype.

Oklahoma State rolls the Big XII this year. Feel free to remember this and call me out later if I'm wrong, but I would bet a large sum of money on the Cowboys this year. They return their entire team minus one bench player and bring in a great recruiting class. They are a one seed for sure this year.

I'm not buying into Kansas this year. They literally lost their entire starting lineup from last season. They have an elite recruiting class coming in, but I think its more likely that they pull a 2012-2013 Kentucky rather than a 2011-2012 Kentucky. Top 25 for sure but not top 10.

See above for my thoughts on us. Top 25 for sure but our PG situation makes me nervous. We will be a great team but can't be elite without a solid PG. Hopefully Duane is the answer.

Iowa is my Miami of 2013-2014. KenPom loved Iowa last season but they got overshadowed with how deep the Big 10 was. They will be very senior heavy and only lose about 9% of their offense from last season. Plus they welcome in Bo Ryan's favorite ex-badger J Uthoff. Three might be too high but we'll see.

VCU was a four seed last season and is trending up. If anything, three could be too low. Reddic and Graham will be a terror next season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them run the table on the A-10 next season (and joining us the next)

Creighton brings back everyone but their starting center and two seldom used bench players. They are my favorite to win the BEast.

Bet against 9 straight at your own risk. But comeon. They're going to "roll" a conference they've won only once (which just so happen to coincide with the year after Roy left and Self's 1st at KU)? They may win it (in a tie), but that is going out over your skies a bit ya think? All they are is 2 ball-dominant players who run the same plays over and over again.

KU has the best coach (by far), the best players (by far) and the best home field advantage (by far). I really hate KU, but this is not the year to predict then end of their championship run.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Well, I wanted to see how I did in my attempts at being Nostradamus for this years bracket. BTW, I used to be called Analytical Eagle

Final stats:

25/36 at large bids correct (69.4%)....also like to point out that none of my "last four in" (arguably the hardest to project), take them out and it's 25/32 (78.1%)
42/68 total correct (61.7%)

My predictions (what teams actually got in parentheses)

One Seeds
LOUISVILLE (actually got a 4 seed)
MICHIGAN STATE (4 seed)
OKLAHOMA STATE (9 seed, big miss here)
KENTUCKY (8 seed, glad I missed here)

Two Seeds
NORTH CAROLINA (6 seed)
Michigan (spot on!)
Ohio State (6 seed)
Florida (1 seed, knew they would be good, but not this good)

Three Seeds
Iowa (11 seed, bold prediction, got burned)
Duke (correct!)
Syracuse (got it!)
VCU (5 seed)

Four Seeds
Wisconsin (2 seed)
CREIGHTON (3 seed, and people thought I was crazy for putting them as the best in the BEast)
STANFORD (10 seed)
Kansas (2 seed)

Five Seeds
Marquette (Not even NIT, woof)
Connecticut (7 seed)
Indiana (Not even NIT, seat is getting hotter)
Arizona (1 seed)

Six Seeds
Memphis (8 seed)
Villanova (2 seed)
Georgetown (4 seed...in the NIT)
Virginia (1 seed)

Seven Seeds
NEW MEXICO (bullseye!)
Notre Dame (losing season, and I loved it)
ST. MARY'S (not even NIT, not sure what I was thinking on this one)
Baylor (6 seed)

Eight Seeds
Pittsburgh (9 seed)
WICHITA STATE (1 seed, did not see this one coming at all)
BYU (10 seed)
Cincinnati (5 seed)

Nine Seeds
Colorado (8 seed)
Iowa State (3 seed)
Tennessee (11 seed)
Saint Louis (5 seed)

Ten Seeds
Gonzaga (8 seed)
Ole Miss (not even NIT)
Missouri (2 seed in NIT)
St. John's (1 seed in NIT)

Eleven Seeds
DENVER (finished 4th in conference, prediction was made before stud player transferred)
Providence (exactly right!)
Oregon (7 seed)
UCLA (4 seed, really didn't think Alford would do well)

Twelve Seeds
FLORIDA GULF COAST (regular season A Sun champion)
Alabama (not even NIT)
California (2 seed in NIT)
Maryland (not even NIT)
Boise State (not even NIT)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (finished 3rd in conference)

Thirteen Seeds
HARVARD (12 seed)
STONY BROOK (lost in America East championship game)
WEBER STATE (16 seed)
AKRON (finished 4th in conference, prediction made before star PG dismissed for off court issues)

Fourteen Seeds
BELMONT (OVC regular season champs)
MANHATTAN (13 seed)
NEW MEXICO STATE (13 seed)
DAVIDSON (SoCon regular season champs)

Fifteen Seeds
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (14 seed)
BOSTON UNIVERSITY (Patriot Conference regular season champs)
WRIGHT STATE (lost in Horizon championship game)
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (12 seed)

Sixteen Seeds
DREXEL (finished 4th in conference)
TEXAS SOUTHERN (yes indeed!)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (finished 2nd in conference)
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (finished 10th in conference...whoops)
UC IRVINE (Big West Regular Season Champs)
ROBERT MORRIS (NEC Regular Season Champs)

Last Four Byes
St. John's (1 seed in NIT)
Oregon (7 seed)
UCLA (4 seed)
Providence (yep)

Last Four In
Alabama (not even NIT)
Maryland (not even NIT)
Boise State (not even NIT)
California (2 seed in NIT)

First Four Out
Butler (not even close, prediction made before Roosevelt Jones injury)
Purdue (not even NIT)
Illinois (2 seed in NIT)
Kansas State (9 seed)

Next Four Out
Minnesota (1 seed in NIT)
San Diego State (4 seed, yikes!)
Vanderbilt (not even NIT)
North Carolina State (12 seed)

It was just something I drew up when I was bored last summer but I think I did pretty well. It's fun to look back on these things.