Big East Tournament bracket (through 3/4)

[MUBasketball]

Changes since Sunday:

Providence +2
St. John's +1

Xavier -1
Marquette -2

[jsheim]

Georgetown can't catch us if we lose to STJ (beat em twice)....so 6th is worst.

If we beat STJ we're 5th: If we tie with XV and or PRV at 10-8....we all have 1-1 records against each other so it goes to records against top guys in conference and each of them (XV, PRV) have a signature win against NV and CR...not us.

So win at STJ -> 5th, lose -> 6th....and opponent is XV, STJ or NV depending.

That sound right?

....oh, and 3 wins in BE tourney or its the NIT.

[Fred Garvin]

I believe this is the best possibility for us.Have Georgetown beat Creighton,and I won't want to play St.Johns at home if your Villanova,and hope for the best???

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I believe this is the best possibility for us.Have Georgetown beat Creighton,and I won't want to play St.Johns at home if your Villanova,and hope for the best???

Personally, I want SJU and Creighton on the same side of the bracket. I think the Johnnies can beat them in NYC. I would rather have NOVA face GTWN. I would like the winner of that game....of course I don't like our chances of beating GTWN 3 times.

Essentially, it's a crapshoot. Win or go home

[AirPunches]

Personally, I want SJU and Creighton on the same side of the bracket. I think the Johnnies can beat them in NYC. I would rather have NOVA face GTWN. I would like the winner of that game....of course I don't like our chances of beating GTWN 3 times.

Essentially, it's a crapshoot. Win or go home

I agree this is the best case scenario. The more I think about it the more it's clear that last nights game really didn't matter all that much. Sure they might have gotten in with 2 wins in the BET but I have a feeling we would have all been disappointed anyway. At minimum they needed to win two in NYC. May as well get the third. Best case is X or prov in first round then hope either creighton or nova gets knocked off. I think MU will be a tough out next week. I'm looking forward to it.

[real chili 83]

Best part of being on this side of the bracket, all of our games will be on at night.

Seriously, we know we can beat Providence.  Creighton can be beat, as proven by GTown, etc......teams we've beaten.  Also, what is the statistical chance that a one high major beats another high major THREE times in the same season?  Yes, it can happen, but my gut tells me that the odds start to swing our way in our next Creighton natch up.

[Windyplayer]

Georgetown can't catch us if we lose to STJ (beat em twice)....so 6th is worst.

If we beat STJ we're 5th: If we tie with XV and or PRV at 10-8....we all have 1-1 records against each other so it goes to records against top guys in conference and each of them (XV, PRV) have a signature win against NV and CR...not us.

So win at STJ -> 5th, lose -> 6th....and opponent is XV, STJ or NV depending.

That sound right?

....oh, and 3 wins in BE tourney or its the NIT.

So I tried to flesh out the tie-breakers to get a better understanding of different scenarios, but it's honestly not worth it at this point. It got complicated really fast especially with Nova playing two more games against X and G-town. Even though the regular season ends in a week, seedings are still very much fluid from 3-6.
 

[Golden Avalanche]

Best part of being on this side of the bracket, all of our games will be on at night.

Seriously, we know we can beat Providence.  Creighton can be beat, as proven by GTown, etc......teams we've beaten.  Also, what is the statistical chance that a one high major beats another high major THREE times in the same season?  Yes, it can happen, but my gut tells me that the odds start to swing our way in our next Creighton natch up.

One thing you seem to be missing regarding this is Creighton totally controlled Marquette twice. Neither was a contest. 15 minutes into both games, everyone knew CU was winning.

Only chance MU has against the Jays is if they get off the bus bored as crap and shoot 22% from the perimeter. Even with that, I'm not sure MU has the mental makeup to beat a team like Creighton.

[BM1090]

So I tried to hash out the tie-breakers to get a better understanding of different scenarios, but it's honestly not worth it at this point. It got complicated really fast especially with Nova playing two more games against X and G-town. Even though the regular season ends in a week, seedings are still very much fluid from 3-6.
 

As far as Marquette is concerned, it's simple. Win and we're the 5. Lose and we're the 6. Xavier win tonight or a providence loss Saturday and Xavier is the 3. Providence win AND Xavier loss and providence is the 3.

[Windyplayer]

As far as Marquette is concerned, it's simple. Win and we're the 5. Lose and we're the 6. Xavier win tonight or a providence loss Saturday and Xavier is the 3. Providence win AND Xavier loss and providence is the 3.

Right, but it gets tricky when you try to determine who we play given all the variables. Where is St. Johns in all of this? What if Providence and Xavier win their remaining games or lose their remaining games and St. Johns beats us? If Providence and Xavier lose, and SJU beats us--not a stretch, how do the cards fall? We know that Xavier has the tie-breaker over St. Johns, so SJU would play in the 4/5 game. The question is who would take the #3 seed between Xavier and Providence.  They split in the regular season and both would be 1-3 against Nova & Creighton so it would come down to how the fared against St. johns and since the X-men swept them, Xavier would claim the #3 seed and we would face them in the first round.

So in all likelihood if we lose, we play Xavier rather than Providene in the first round. I'd prefer Providence.

[BM1090]

Right, but it gets tricky when you try to determine who we play given all the variables. Where is St. Johns in all of this? What if Providence and Xavier win their remaining games or lose their remaining games and St. Johns beats us? If Providence and Xavier lose, and SJU beats us--not a stretch, how do the cards fall? We know that Xavier has the tie-breaker over St. Johns, so SJU would play in the 4/5 game. The question is who would take the #3 seed between Xavier and Providence.  They split in the regular season and both would be 1-3 against Nova & Creighton so it would come down to how the fared against St. johns and since the X-men swept them, Xavier would claim the #3 seed and we would face them in the first round.

So in all likelihood if we lose, we play Xavier rather than Providene in the first round. I'd prefer Providence.

I read on another board that Xavier wins all tiebreakers for the 3 seed. Not sure who would be 4/5 if providence and st John's tie but it wouldn't really matter since they would play each other anyways.

[MU72491]

Should we lose Saturday? I would much rather play providence and creighton than Xavier and Villanova.

[wardle2wade]

Should we lose Saturday? I would much rather play providence and creighton than Xavier and Villanova.

If Stainbrook is still out (as I imagine he will be), I'd prefer Xavier.  We did well when the big boy fouled out early in Milwaukee.

[Windyplayer]

I read on another board that Xavier wins all tiebreakers for the 3 seed. Not sure who would be 4/5 if providence and st John's tie but it wouldn't really matter since they would play each other anyways.

Where were you 5 minutes ago?

[copious1218]

One thing you seem to be missing regarding this is Creighton totally controlled Marquette twice. Neither was a contest. 15 minutes into both games, everyone knew CU was winning.

Nova totally controlled MU twice as well.  If Mayo didn't score 10 points in 40 seconds we lose in regulation.  I'd much rather face Creighton right now.  They are susceptible to an off-shooting night.  It doesn't appear that Nova is susceptible.  I think it was Paint Touches that had an article demonstrating that Nova was basically the same team in its wins and losses.  That being said, this team likely loses to either. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Should we lose Saturday? I would much rather play providence and creighton than Xavier and Villanova.

I'd much rather face Xavier/Nova then Prov/Creigh. Best scenario would be Prov/Nova in my opinion

[Windyplayer]

I'd much rather face Xavier/Nova then Prov/Creigh. Best scenario would be Prov/Nova in my opinion

Why Xavier over Providence? My only argument in favor of this preference would be that it forces Buzz's hand to stick with Dawson rather than keeping D. Wilson in to play "lock-down" defense against Cotton.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Why Xavier over Providence? My only argument in favor of this preference would be that it forces Buzz's hand to stick with Dawson rather than keeping D. Wilson in to play "lock-down" defense against Cotton.

I would rather play Providence than Xavier. However, I would much much much rather play Villanova than Creighton. So if given the choice between X in round 1/Nova in round 2 and Prov in round 1/Creigh in round 2, I take X/NOVA

Though looking at the two, Providence and Xavier (without Stainbrook) is kind of a crap shoot