Next Year Is Here

[NersEllenson]

I think you are out of your mind.  They see practice.  They see who's winning the battles.

You continue to act if there aren't legitimate, on court reasons why Buzz plays the players he does. 

All I know is what I see in games, and I'm still trying to find legitimate, on court reasons, based on the data provided - that Derrick Wilson is earning all 30.3 minutes per game he gets...leading minute getter on the team.  This team in no way would have a worse record at this point if his minutes were slashed to 20...and they'd given Dawson 20.  Every other imaginable lineup tinker has been played with...except to greatly reduce Derrick's role.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Really, really pathetic fanbase.

Easy now. Scoop represents less than 1% of the Marquette fanbase. And those who think the Seniors should ask Buzz to replace the backcourt is less than....well...it's more than 1%...but not most of us.

And as misguided as I think these posts are, they are coming from a place of wanting our team to be the best.

But dear God, the only good thing about basketball season being over will be a break from the Dawson v. Derrick arguement.

[GGGG]

All I know is what I see in games, and I'm still trying to find legitimate, on court reasons, based on the data provided - that Derrick Wilson is earning all 30.3 minutes per game he gets...leading minute getter on the team.  This team in no way would have a worse record at this point if his minutes were slashed to 20...and they'd given Dawson 20.  Every other imaginable lineup tinker has been played with...except to greatly reduce Derrick's role.

Right....

ALL....YOU....KNOW

In other words an incomplete picture.

[avid1010]

Right....

ALL....YOU....KNOW

In other words an incomplete picture.

but you just claim buzz is right because he sees them every day in practice.  so, if you want to take the stance then all we can really judge buzz off of is wins and losses, in which case he sucks this year. 

i think he's done an awful job with his rotations this year, and i do think he's stubborn.  i think he has set a precedence that (for the most part) only the best defenders are going to play...and as a result we have the best defense in the BEAST this year...

my issue is that the players on the bench are better offensive players...so a coach should be able to have them playing defense by this time in the year. 

[mattyv1908]

Sultan and Ners,

Derrick Wilson:

Offensive Rtg:  100.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 69.5 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  102.7 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 68.1 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  43.2%

John Dawson:

Offensive Rtg:  87.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 60.5 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  105.2 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 69.7 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  42.7%

Now we know that there are other players that play along side these guys but the numbers are pretty soundly in Derrick Wilson's favor as far as who deserves the vast majority of minutes this year at PG.

That may point to a bigger problem but still here's the data.  I included the true shooting percentage stat as it accounts for both the difficulty and difference between the three types of shots a player could take and comes up with a percentage reflecting their overall shooting.

[Wojo'sMojo]

Sultan and Ners,

Derrick Wilson:

Offensive Rtg:  100.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 69.5 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  102.7 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 68.1 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  43.2%

John Dawson:

Offensive Rtg:  87.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 60.5 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  105.2 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 69.7 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  42.7%

Now we know that there are other players that play along side these guys but the numbers are pretty soundly in Derrick Wilson's favor as far as who deserves the vast majority of minutes this year at PG.

That may point to a bigger problem but still here's the data.  I included the true shooting percentage stat as it accounts for both the difficulty and difference between the three types of shots a player could take and comes up with a percentage reflecting their overall shooting.

Derrick shoots .401 from the field, .077 from three, and .461 from the line. I am failing to understand the true shooting percent? The difficulty of the shot is how it reads...who determines this in all seriousness? I like stats, but this doesn't make sense to me...it also doesn't take into account floor spacing. Maybe I am just confused.

[NersEllenson]

Sultan and Ners,

Derrick Wilson:

Offensive Rtg:  100.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 69.5 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  102.7 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 68.1 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  43.2%

John Dawson:

Offensive Rtg:  87.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 60.5 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  105.2 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 69.7 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  42.7%

Now we know that there are other players that play along side these guys but the numbers are pretty soundly in Derrick Wilson's favor as far as who deserves the vast majority of minutes this year at PG.

That may point to a bigger problem but still here's the data.  I included the true shooting percentage stat as it accounts for both the difficulty and difference between the three types of shots a player could take and comes up with a percentage reflecting their overall shooting.

And of course one's guys stats are from long, consistent stretches of playing time..max minutes...as a junior...

And the other guy's stats are comprised from wildly inconsistent stretches of playing time ranging from :30 seconds to the high end of 12:00, with most stints of 2-3:30 seconds...AS A FRESHMAN.

And as for true shooting percentage stat - I would wager any sum of money that it suggests making a free throw is the least degree of difficulty over a 3 pointer, or 2 pointer...so it is lightly weighted...yet the fact the easiest shot - a FREE throw - is an area where we have a 47% shooter - that points to the irony of the stat..and actually barely effects Derrick's True Shooting percentage as it isn't weighed heavily at all...and not to mention he won't take 3 point shots, or midrange shots, and will only shoot from point blank range.

And you can look at these head to head stats and they have value to an extent...yet what can't be measured is how does Derrick's complete lack of any kind of perimeter game, negatively affect the other 4 guys on the floor??  I'd say GREATLY...and evidence of where this could be said was the Seton Hall game where everyone agreed Dawson was TERRIBLE - the one true game he looked awful - yet in his time on the floor..a 12 minute stretch...our lead didn't shrink..and we grew it by 2 points over when he entered the game.  Why??  Because the THREAT alone of a guy being able to make a 3, much less take one keeps the defense honest.

[jesmu84]

Sultan and Ners,

Derrick Wilson:

Offensive Rtg:  100.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 69.5 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  102.7 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 68.1 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  43.2%

John Dawson:

Offensive Rtg:  87.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 60.5 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  105.2 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 69.7 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  42.7%

Now we know that there are other players that play along side these guys but the numbers are pretty soundly in Derrick Wilson's favor as far as who deserves the vast majority of minutes this year at PG.

That may point to a bigger problem but still here's the data.  I included the true shooting percentage stat as it accounts for both the difficulty and difference between the three types of shots a player could take and comes up with a percentage reflecting their overall shooting.

[GGGG]

but you just claim buzz is right because he sees them every day in practice.  so, if you want to take the stance then all we can really judge buzz off of is wins and losses, in which case he sucks this year. 

i think he's done an awful job with his rotations this year, and i do think he's stubborn.  i think he has set a precedence that (for the most part) only the best defenders are going to play...and as a result we have the best defense in the BEAST this year...

my issue is that the players on the bench are better offensive players...so a coach should be able to have them playing defense by this time in the year. 

That very well might be the case.  But that is a different argument entirely.  That isn't the argument that Buzz is simply sitting his better players...that is that those with a higher ceiling haven't done what they need to do.  That might be coaching.  It might be on them.

[mattyv1908]

And of course one's guys stats are from long, consistent stretches of playing time..max minutes...as a junior...

And the other guy's stats are comprised from wildly inconsistent stretches of playing time ranging from :30 seconds to the high end of 12:00, with most stints of 2-3:30 seconds...AS A FRESHMAN.

And as for true shooting percentage stat - I would wager any sum of money that it suggests making a free throw is the least degree of difficulty over a 3 pointer, or 2 pointer...so it is lightly weighted...yet the fact the easiest shot - a FREE throw - is an area where we have a 47% shooter - that points to the irony of the stat..and actually barely effects Derrick's True Shooting percentage as it isn't weighed heavily at all...and not to mention he won't take 3 point shots, or midrange shots, and will only shoot from point blank range.

And you can look at these head to head stats and they have value to an extent...yet what can't be measured is how does Derrick's complete lack of any kind of perimeter game, negatively affect the other 4 guys on the floor??  I'd say GREATLY...and evidence of where this could be said was the Seton Hall game where everyone agreed Dawson was TERRIBLE - the one true game he looked awful - yet in his time on the floor..a 12 minute stretch...our lead didn't shrink..and we grew it by 2 points over when he entered the game.  Why??  Because the THREAT alone of a guy being able to make a 3, much less take one keeps the defense honest.

Ners -

Throw true shooting % out if you wish.

Your second paragraph doesn't make any sense.  OF COURSE THERE ARE FOUR OTHER PLAYERS ON THE FLOOR, which is what makes Offensive RTG more accurate.  It shows each player's impact on the offense when they are on the court.  Does a player like Gardner boost Derrick's ORtg?  Of course he does but he affects every player who plays with him positively as well (and without him we'd be truly an abysmal offensive team).  The fact is, if you take both Wilson and Dawson and divide they're ORtg by the team's average offensive possessions the team averages about nine points a game better with Wilson at the helm compared to Dawson.

And both Wilson and Dawson have played with the starters as well as in garbage time, so you can't make the argument Dawson doesn't play with the best players as most of his minutes have come with our better guys.

[GGGG]

And you can look at these head to head stats and they have value to an extent...yet what can't be measured is how does Derrick's complete lack of any kind of perimeter game, negatively affect the other 4 guys on the floor??  I'd say GREATLY...and evidence of where this could be said was the Seton Hall game where everyone agreed Dawson was TERRIBLE - the one true game he looked awful - yet in his time on the floor..a 12 minute stretch...our lead didn't shrink..and we grew it by 2 points over when he entered the game.  Why??  Because the THREAT alone of a guy being able to make a 3, much less take one keeps the defense honest.

Oh good lord.

This is exactly why no one should engage you.  When Dawson plays like sh*t, his "threat" still makes the team better.  When Derrick actually plays well, his teammates excel despite him.

The stats show it.  Buzz knows it.  Derrick is better right now. 

He might not be next year...but next year isn't here yet.

[Lennys Tap]

Sultan and Ners,

Derrick Wilson:

Offensive Rtg:  100.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 69.5 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  102.7 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 68.1 pts/game with Wilson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  43.2%

John Dawson:

Offensive Rtg:  87.6 - Marquette averages 69.1 possessions/game meaning the team would score 60.5 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
Defensive Rtg:  105.2 - Marquette allows 66.3 possessions/game meaning the team would give up 69.7 pts/game with Dawson at PG.
True shooting % (an efficient shooting % that accounts for the difficulty of 2pt, 3pt, and FT shots):  42.7%

Now we know that there are other players that play along side these guys but the numbers are pretty soundly in Derrick Wilson's favor as far as who deserves the vast majority of minutes this year at PG.

That may point to a bigger problem but still here's the data.  I included the true shooting percentage stat as it accounts for both the difficulty and difference between the three types of shots a player could take and comes up with a percentage reflecting their overall shooting.

Thanks for theses numbers, Matty. They paint the picture I've seen all year - Derrick is very limited, John more so. The myth that John would give us more "O" is just that. They both average just over 7 points per 40 minutes on bad shooting (Derrick 43% on 2s, 8% on 3s, John 30% on 2s and 29% on 3s). John is a much better free throw shooter, but assists and rebounds at a lower rate and turns it over at a higher one. Add to that the fact that Derrick is a much better on ball and help defender and in less than 4 times John's minutes has 12 times more steals (36 to 3). In the ideal world, Derrick would be a back up point playing 15 minutes and John would be learning with mop up minutes. Sadly, we don't have the guy who can effectively be the 25 minute guy, so that role falls to Derrick. With him filling that role we're an average team. Give that role to John (potential sure, but all the numbers say he's not ready) we're a below average, sub .500 conference team IMO.

[MU82]

You should probably jump on the Deonte stock right now.  He is going to be a monster next year.  Would not surprise me in the least if he was able to leave MU after junior year and get drafted in first round. 

I hope you're right. But I also remember lots of folks here worrying that Mayo might leave early because he was going to be so dominant.

[Lennys Tap]

And you can look at these head to head stats and they have value to an extent...yet what can't be measured is how does Derrick's complete lack of any kind of perimeter game, negatively affect the other 4 guys on the floor??  I'd say GREATLY...and evidence of where this could be said was the Seton Hall game where everyone agreed Dawson was TERRIBLE - the one true game he looked awful - yet in his time on the floor..a 12 minute stretch...our lead didn't shrink..and we grew it by 2 points over when he entered the game.  Why??  Because the THREAT alone of a guy being able to make a 3, much less take one keeps the defense honest.

This is total BS. We "grew our lead" by 2 points because the other team threw the ball away multiple times, missed easy shots and blew 4 straight free throws after John Dawson turnovers were followed by dumb John Dawson fouls. Giving John credit for good D on those missed free throws and those unforced TOs (the reason he was +2) would, of course, be ridiculous, but no more ridiculous than crediting the +2 to his mere presence "spacing the floor". You're on a quest for an imaginary grail, Ners, but the facts are overwhelming that John is much less ready to be a D1 point guard than Derrick despite Derrick's glaring deficiencies. The problem isn't who Buzz is playing, it's that Buzz has given himself no better alternatives.

[brandx]

Well....at least I learned a little more about DW vs. JD

Now, excuse me for a sec while I go blow my brains out!!

[avid1010]

That very well might be the case.  But that is a different argument entirely.  That isn't the argument that Buzz is simply sitting his better players...that is that those with a higher ceiling haven't done what they need to do.  That might be coaching.  It might be on them.

it's on buzz when every freshman is having the same issue...either he can't coach 'em up, or he can't recruit.  if you're going to keep players with higher ceilings on the bench, you better have a competitive team. 

the offense sucks this year, and i think buzz has always believed that if his teams play solid defense, he's good enough to figure out ways (offensively) to win games.  he did it with a midget backcourt, with poor outside shooting, with no front court, etc. over many different years.  he's failed to do it this year, and the saving grace (in my opinion) is that this is the first time it's happened.  it's also the first time since the three amigos we didn't have an impact JUCO or two.

[GGGG]

avid, the offense wasn't very good last year either.  They simply need better and more consistent outside shooting because this is the second year in a row where that has been completely dismal.

[BCHoopster]

it's on buzz when every freshman is having the same issue...either he can't coach 'em up, or he can't recruit.  if you're going to keep players with higher ceilings on the bench, you better have a competitive team. 

the offense sucks this year, and i think buzz has always believed that if his teams play solid defense, he's good enough to figure out ways (offensively) to win games.  he did it with a midget backcourt, with poor outside shooting, with no front court, etc. over many different years.  he's failed to do it this year, and the saving grace (in my opinion) is that this is the first time it's happened.  it's also the first time since the three amigos we didn't have an impact JUCO or two.

This is the first year he did not have a potential pro player, Jamil and Devante probably will play in Europe, but not the NBA

[Sunbelt15]

So Juan will start but Derrick and Todd won't?  I'm curious what makes you think that.  

If Derrick starts next year, my hopes will fall drastically for John, Duane, and the season.

[GGGG]

Derrick will start next year and will be marginally improved from this year.  Hopefully one of the other guards can step up.  It really is up to them.

[jesmu84]

it's on buzz when every freshman is having the same issue...either he can't coach 'em up, or he can't recruit.  if you're going to keep players with higher ceilings on the bench, you better have a competitive team. 

the offense sucks this year, and i think buzz has always believed that if his teams play solid defense, he's good enough to figure out ways (offensively) to win games.  he did it with a midget backcourt, with poor outside shooting, with no front court, etc. over many different years.  he's failed to do it this year, and the saving grace (in my opinion) is that this is the first time it's happened.  it's also the first time since the three amigos we didn't have an impact JUCO or two.

Thanks Larry/Pilarz