It's the Johnnies

[MUrugger]

That will finish 3rd in the BE and who we need to wish ill will towards for all kinds of NCAA Tourney related reasons. IMHO.

Through no official assessment other than the one I've just taken a few minutes to consider, there are 5 teams in the Big East chasing however many bids the conference is awarded by the committee. These are: MU, XU, Prov, SJU, G'Town.  A Big East Tourney FF of Cray, Nova, SJU, MU would be a very good goal.

Team---Remaining Schedule---Record Now---Predicted Finish---Place in Big East
MU---(Gtwn, @Nova,@Prov, SJU)---8-6---2-2 = 10-8---4th
XU---(@SJU, Cray, @Hall, Nova)---8-6---1-3 = 9-9---T5th
Prov---(@Hall, MU, @Cray)---8-7---1-2 = 9-9---T5th
SJU---(XU, DeP, @MU)---8-7---3-0 = 11-7---3rd behind Cray & Nova
G'TWN---(@MU, Cray, @Nova)---7-8---0-3 = 7-11---7th

In my view the biggest stretch in the thoughts above is MU squeezing 2-2 out of it's last 4.  I could be wrong about Gtown being done, but I don't know which of those last 3 they win.  It can't come against us, in Milwaukee.  You gotta figure the Johnnies will be helped by the BE Tourney with home court, fans, media.  We have to finish 4th in the league and make the BE Final Four in New York.  Two pickets to Tittsburgh if that happens. 

[PGsHeroes32]

Were beating SJU.


Jamil is going for 23 and 8

Ox 19 and 6

Jake 14 on 4-6 from 3

Chris 9 and 6

And Todd since he is older than half our seniors is going to think it is his senior day as well and go for 21 and 6(assists)

We win a laugher 97-53.

[brandx]

That will finish 3rd in the BE and who we need to wish ill will towards for all kinds of NCAA Tourney related reasons. IMHO.

Through no official assessment other than the one I've just taken a few minutes to consider, there are 5 teams in the Big East chasing however many bids the conference is awarded by the committee. These are: MU, XU, Prov, SJU, G'Town.  A Big East Tourney FF of Cray, Nova, SJU, MU would be a very good goal.

Team---Remaining Schedule---Record Now---Predicted Finish---Place in Big East
MU---(Gtwn, @Nova,@Prov, SJU)---8-6---2-2 = 10-8---4th
XU---(@SJU, Cray, @Hall, Nova)---8-6---1-3 = 9-9---T5th
Prov---(@Hall, MU, @Cray)---8-7---1-2 = 9-9---T5th
SJU---(XU, DeP, @MU)---8-7---3-0 = 11-7---3rd behind Cray & Nova
G'TWN---(@MU, Cray, @Nova)---7-8---0-3 = 7-11---7th

In my view the biggest stretch in the thoughts above is MU squeezing 2-2 out of it's last 4.  I could be wrong about Gtown being done, but I don't know which of those last 3 they win.  It can't come against us, in Milwaukee.  You gotta figure the Johnnies will be helped by the BE Tourney with home court, fans, media.  We have to finish 4th in the league and make the BE Final Four in New York.  Two pickets to Tittsburgh if that happens. 

Problem is that 2-2 would leave us off the bubble - we would be about the 10th team out. Which means we would have to win the BET.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Problem is that 2-2 would leave us off the bubble - we would be about the 10th team out. Which means we would have to win the BET.

Thing is, winning this BET is way easier than winning the BET of the last 7 years.  It could actually be done. 

[Coleman]

Thing is, winning this BET is way easier than winning the BET of the last 7 years.  It could actually be done. 

Yup. 3 straight wins. Even this team has already done that this year in the Big East

[brandx]

Thing is, winning this BET is way easier than winning the BET of the last 7 years.  It could actually be done. 

Agreed. I think if someone can upset Creighton, MU would have a chance to squeak it out. They are the only team where I see no path to winning.

[PGsHeroes32]

I still think we can beat Creighton. But Davante has to play. They have no answer for him.

SHU let Teague run wild and he was a force.

[MUrugger]

I guess my vote is in.  Now a poll is available to weigh in as well.

[Archies Bat]

Thing is, winning this BET is way easier than winning the BET of the last 7 years.  It could actually be done.  

And I suspect in the past several years, Buzz did not think it was worth the effort to win, leaving the team worn out.  We were in with a decent seed either way.  Different this year.

[bilsu]

Problem is that 2-2 would leave us off the bubble - we would be about the 10th team out. Which means we would have to win the BET.

I think beating Georgetown and Providence eliminates them unless they take us. It would be hard to justify taking them over us when we finish higher in standings and sweep them. Win those two and first round game and we are in. I think we are out if we lose to the above and beat St. John's and Villanova unless we win two conference tournament games.

[MerrittsMustache]

I think beating Georgetown and Providence eliminates them unless they take us. It would be hard to justify taking them over us when we finish higher in standings and sweep them. Win those two and first round game and we are in. I think we are out if we lose to the above and beat St. John's and Villanova unless we win two conference tournament games.

PC and StJ's each have a win over Creighton.

Gtown has wins over VCU (RPI 23) and Michigan State and another shot at Creighton and Nova.

Marquette has no marquee wins.

All 4 teams will likely end up with similar RPIs (50s). To make the tournament, a lot would depend on what the committee values - head-to-head wins or "quality wins."

[chapman]

I think beating Georgetown and Providence eliminates them unless they take us. It would be hard to justify taking them over us when we finish higher in standings and sweep them. Win those two and first round game and we are in. I think we are out if we lose to the above and beat St. John's and Villanova unless we win two conference tournament games.

Well, if we beat Georgetown but they win their last two (vs. Creighton, @Nova) they'd finish 18-12 (9-9), estimated  RPI of 45, SOS of 14, with neutral wins over MSU, VCU, K-State, home vs. Creighton, and @Villanova with no win worse than 263. 

If we beat Georgetown and lose to Nova, we're 19-12 (11-7), estimated RPI of 56, SOS of 47, GW and two Georgetown wins as our best and six wins worse than their worst.  We wouldn't get in over them.  But they might just lose all three and end up at 16-14.

[79Warrior]

I still think we can beat Creighton. But Davante has to play. They have no answer for him.

SHU let Teague run wild and he was a force.

We have no answer for their 3 point shooting.

[PGsHeroes32]

We have no answer for their 3 point shooting.

And they have no answer for Ox. That's why you bang it at them all game long.

[GooooMarquette]

And they have no answer for Ox. That's why you bang it at them all game long.

I fear that if we trade Ox's layups for Wragge's 3s, we'll come out on the short end again.

Hate to say it, but I think the only way we beat Creighton is if they go cold on 3s.  Our best perimeter defenders (Derrick, Jake and Todd) simply don't have the length to cover McDermott and Wragge, and I don't see Ox and Otule getting out there.  That basically leaves it up to Jamil and Juan...and that hasn't worked very well for us in the first two meetings.

I do agree, however, that we beat SJU at home....

[PGsHeroes32]

I fear that if we trade Ox's layups for Wragge's 3s, we'll come out on the short end again.

Hate to say it, but I think the only way we beat Creighton is if they go cold on 3s.  Our best perimeter defenders (Derrick, Jake and Todd) simply don't have the length to cover McDermott and Wragge, and I don't see Ox and Otule getting out there.  That basically leaves it up to Jamil and Juan...and that hasn't worked very well for us in the first two meetings.

I do agree, however, that we beat SJU at home....

They were 8-15 against SHU.

They shoot 3s no matter who is on the floor so sitting Ox makes no damn sense. Ox got great opportunites the bit he did play vs them. Chris even got them a will but he can't make fts so it does nothing.

The only way to beat Creighton is to pound them down low.

[jsheim]

... there are 5 teams in the Big East chasing however many bids the conference is awarded by the committee.

MUrugger, I like doing speculation like you have done...good food for thought....but I have one quibble.

I've seen thoughts like the one above in different threads...in particular that the committee will grant a conference "N" number of bids as a conference. I don't see MU fighting other Big East teams for bids any more than they are competing with any other schools outside the BE. The committee has de-emphasized conferences as a unit and looks at schools individually. A few years back the PAC-10 had 1 school make the tourney. They weren't fighting for a PAC-10 allocation...they were fighting for their individual lives.

So to sum up what I'm saying is....it really doesn't matter what St. Johns does or anyone else....just MU (of course beating STJ)...they need to finish 3-1 to have any consideration regardless of BE regular season finish...Further I think they need 3-1 and a 1-1 or better BE tourny to make it....its these three things:
* Season Record
* RPI
* Quality wins

Right now they are weak in all three...but 3-1/1-1 might make them viable.

Just a quibble....enjoyed your thoughts.

[BallBoy]

And they have no answer for Ox. That's why you bang it at them all game long.

Disagree. Creighton is not a good matchup for Ox.

1.  Ox is not a perimeter defender. Wragge is a perimeter 5 who will bring Ox outside
2.  Ox is not the swiftest of defenders so any pick and roll he will need to fully commit to leaving and outside shot. If he does move they will go passed him
3.  Creighton will move the mismatch to the post. This will be McDermott and Gardner will not be able to double and get back to his defender
4.  Creighton also gets out on the run, which Gardner is slow to get back on
5.  Gardner is a below the rim offensive player and he does do well against athletic defenses.
6.  In both games, Gardner was a non-factor. I know you are going to say if that fool Buzz would play him then he would have but Creighton is not a good matchup for Gardner.

Best option for Gardner is to bang it down low and he picks up fouls on Wragge but Creighton is too well coached to pick up cheap fouls, etc.  so he is going to get exposed on defense more than the value on offense.

OTule is a slightly better option and Taylor is also slightly better.

[NavinRJohnson]

And they have no answer for Ox. That's why you bang it at them all game long.

They do. Their offense...when Gardner tries to play defense. They find him every time.

[PGsHeroes32]

They do. Their offense...when Gardner tries to play defense. They find him every time.

And again. They are going to do what they do on offense no matter who is out there.

Teams only beat these guys down low. It's the only possible way. There is a reason we got beat down twice against them.

Playing Ox is the only way to even have a chance. SDSU, Batts for Prov, Teague for SHU. Damn even obpeka for SJU.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

And again. They are going to do what they do on offense no matter who is out there.

Teams only beat these guys down low. It's the only possible way. There is a reason we got beat down twice against them.

Playing Ox is the only way to even have a chance. SDSU, Batts for Prov, Teague for SHU. Damn even obpeka for SJU.

They will do what they do, but that doesn't mean that you give up trying to defend it. Obekpa is much more like Otule than Davante.

[MUSF]

I fear that if we trade Ox's layups for Wragge's 3s, we'll come out on the short end again.

Hate to say it, but I think the only way we beat Creighton is if they go cold on 3s. 

It's highly unlikely that the entire team will go cold. I think we need to get either McDermott or Wragge in foul trouble and hammer the paint through post-ups and or penetration. Either way, it's very unlikely that MU wins against Creighton. If we played each other 10 times this season, I think they would win 7 or 8.