Creighton Stat Projection

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Big game for the Warriors tomorrow. We can afford to lose but this could be the marquee win we have been looking for.

Again, stat projection is based on performance against teams at the same venue (home, away, neutral), last 5 games, and similar defenses. The numbers generated are the stats you can reasonably expect each player to produce.

Team Name: Creighton
Starters:
G: Austin Chatman 6-0 180 JR
G: Jahenns Manigat 6-1 180 SR
G-F: Grant Gibbs 6-5 210 SR
F: Ethan Wragge 6-7 225 SR
F: Doug McDermott 6-8 225 SR

Reserves:
Devin Brooks 6-2 175 JR
Avery Dingman 6-6 215 JR
Will Artino 6-11 230 JR
Issiah Zierden 6-2 180 FR

Stat Projection:
McDermott: 35 minutes, 29 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 0 steals, 2 fouls, 2 turnovers, 3-6 from 3
Chatman: 31 mins, 8 pts, 2 rbds, 5 asts, 0 blks, 0 stls, 3 PFs, 2 TOs, 1-3 3P
Manigat: 30 mins, 7 pts, 3 rbds, 3 asts, 0 blks, 1 stl, 2 PFs, 1 TO, 2-4 3P
Wragge: 28 mins, 8 pts, 3 rbds, 1 ast, 0 blks, 1 stl, 3 PFs, 1 TO, 2-6 3P
Gibbs: 26 mins, 7 pts, 5 rbds, 5 asts, 0 blks, 1 stl, 3 PFs, 2 TOs, 1-1 3P
Brooks: 14 mins, 5 pts, 3 rbds, 1 ast, 0 blks, 0 stls, 1 PF, 2 TOs, 0-1 3P
Dingman: 13 mins, 2 pts, 3 rbds, 1 ast, 0 blks, 0 stls, 2 PFs, 1 TO, 0-1 3P
Artino: 13 mins, 6 pts, 4 rbds, 0 asts, 0 blks, 0 stls, 2 PFs, 0 TOs, 0-0  3P
Zierdan: 10 mins, 2 pts, 0 rbds, 1 ast, 0 blks, 0 stls, 1 PF, 0 TO, 0-1 3P
TOTALS: 74 pts, 30 rbds, 18 asts, 0 blks, 3 stls, 19 PFs, 11 TOs, 9-23 3P

Team: Marquette

Stat Projection:
D Wilson: 31 mins, 5 pts, 3 rbds, 5 asts, 0 blks, 3 stls, 2 PFs, 1 TO, 0-0 3P
Thomas: 30 mins, 8 pts, 3 rbds, 1 ast, 0 blks, 0 stls, 3 PFs, 1 TO, 2-6 3P
J Wilson: 28 min, 13 pts, 5 rbds, 3 asts, 1 blk, 1 stl, 3 PFs, 2 TOs, 1-3 3P
Gardner: 27 mins, 15 pts, 5 rbds, 1 ast, 0 blks, 0 stl, 2 PFs, 1 TO, 0-1 3P
Mayo: 25 mins, 10 pts, 3 rbds, 3 asts, 0 blk, 1 stl, 2 PFs, 3 TOs, 1-2 3P
Otule: 16 mins, 4 pts, 3 rbds, 0 asts, 1 blk, 0 stls, 2 PFs, 1 TO, 0-0 3P
Burton: 10 mins, 6 pts, 2 rbds, 1 ast, 0 blks, 1 stl, 2 PFs, 0 TOs, 0-0 3P
Taylor: 9 mins, 2 pts, 3 rbds, 0 asts, 0 blks, 0 stls, 1 PF, 1 TO, 0-1 3P
Anderson: 9 mins, 1 pt, 2 rbds, 0 ast, 0 blks, 1 stl, 1 PF, 1 TO, 0-0 3P
Johnson 8 mins, 2 pts, 1 rbd, 1 ast, 0 blks,  stls, 1 PF, 0 TOs, 0-1 3P
Dawson 7 mins, 4 pts, 1 rbd, 1 ast, 0 blks, 0 stls, 2 PFs, 1 TO, 1-2 3P
TOTAL: 70 pts, 31 rbds, 16 asts, 2 blks, 7 stls, 21 PFs, 12 TOs, 5-16 3P

Interesting Observations:
Dougie McBuckets has been on an absolute tear averaging 32.2 points over the last 5 games with 17-34 3P shooting.

Chatman scores nearly 4 ppg and 2 apg less on the road but also holds onto the ball better.

Manigat has been a ghost in the last 5 games, only avering 3.8 ppg

Wragge has also struggled in the last 5 only scoring 5 ppg and only sink 1.2 3P per game.

Derrick Wilson is averaging 7.2 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.2 spg, and 1.4 tpg over the last 5...all better than his season averages

Thomas loves himself some Creighton defense. Against similar defenses he is averaging 11.6 ppg and 3.6 3PM per game

Jamil is averaging 14 ppg and 2 made 3s per game over the last 5...and that includes the SJU mess

Summary
Milwaukee is about to be treated to the Dougie McBuckets show. He has been on fire and is projected to post a 29 and 7 game. Wow. Just wow. In my two years of doing this, I've never seen a projection that high. Unfortunately for him, his teammates tend to struggle on the road, against similar defenses, and in the last 5 games. Everyone but McDerrmott is slotted to have a tough game. Can the Warriors slow down the likely NPOY enough to win? I hope so.

The stat projection predicts a 4 point Warrior loss. But it predicted 5 point loss to Xavier and look what happen. The model has no way to account for changes in rotations like Buzz made at the start of this win streak. I think we can pull this victory out.

RING OUT AHOYA!!!