Weird Year? Non-Con versus Con record

[MarquetteDano]

Looking at the high major conferences there are quite a few teams that did very well in their non-con portion but are really struggling in conference....

UMass was 13-1 and ranked quite high (7-4 in the A10 which is a fifth place tie)

Pitt was 12-1 though an easy non-con sched (8-5 in the ACC good for fifth place)

Oklahoma State was 12-1 and ranked quite high (4-8 in Big12 which is for second to last... quite a few losses even with Smart)
Baylor was 12-1 and ranked (4-8 in Big12, tied for Oklahoma State at second to last)

Wisconsin was 13-0 and ranked very high (only 7-5 in Big10, good for fourth place)
Ohio State was 13-0 and ranked very high (only 7-6 in Big 10, fifth place)

Colorado was 11-2 and ranked (only 7-5, tie for fifth place in PAC-12)
Oregon was 12-0 and ranked high (only 3-8, tenth place in PAC-12)

Mizzou was 12-1 and ranked high (only 6-6, four way tie for fifth place in SEC)

Seems like an unusually large number of teams doing well in non-con and doing poorly in conference.  It is going to make the tournament seeding and who makes it in even harder this year.

[PGsHeroes32]

I'm saying it right now.

If Baylor or Ok state make the effing tourney and we don't Im going to be pissed.

7-11 conference record is completely unacceptable for a tourney team.

[wardle2wade]

I'm saying it right now.

If Baylor or Ok state make the effing tourney and we don't Im going to be pissed.

7-11 conference record is completely unacceptable for a tourney team.

Completely agree.  Last night Baylor unfortunately hit a three at the buzzer to force ot vs KSU in Waco.  If they had lost, theyd be in even worse shape.

[PGsHeroes32]

Completely agree.  Last night Baylor unfortunately hit a three at the buzzer to force ot vs KSU in Waco.  If they had lost, theyd be in even worse shape.

Yeah that sucked.

the two play each other as well so one team is winning. So one of those two may work there way to a justifiable conference record but 7-11 is just not acceptable. I know its technical 1 win difference but I could work with 8-10 even thoug I think it should be .500 or better in conference.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yeah that sucked.

the two play each other as well so one team is winning. So one of those two may work there way to a justifiable conference record but 7-11 is just not acceptable. I know its technical 1 win difference but I could work with 8-10 even thoug I think it should be .500 or better in conference.

Problem with that is some conferences are so good, you end up putting in a team that plays in a weak conference vs another team that is better, but has to go through a juggernaut.

It has happened many many times before where a team under .500 has made the NCAA tournament as an at-large because the committee deemed them better than someone .500 or better that played in a softer conference.

10 times since the 2000's.  UCONN was the most recent in 2012 at 8-10.  If you go back to the 1990's, there were examples like FSU with a 6-10 ACC record.  Iowa State at 5-9.  Most examples, however, have been 7-9, 8-10, 6-8, etc.

[PGsHeroes32]

Problem with that is some conferences are so good, you end up putting in a team that plays in a weak conference vs another team that is better, but has to go through a juggernaut.

It has happened many many times before where a team under .500 has made the NCAA tournament as an at-large because the committee deemed them better than someone .500 or better that played in a softer conference.

10 times since the 2000's.  UCONN was the most recent in 2012 at 8-10.  If you go back to the 1990's, there were examples like FSU with a 6-10 ACC record.  Iowa State at 5-9.  Most examples, however, have been 7-9, 8-10, 6-8, etc.

Yeah FSU in 98 was the last time a team made the tourney 4 games under .500 in conference. I understand some conferences are tougher but I'm talking them getting in over another major conference team(possibly us, yes the BE is still a major conference). The big 12 is deep this year, but a lot of it has been piliing up wins on each other. A team like ISU has proven nothing away from home except that OSU thriller(we now no that wasn't all that impressive)

Also, seeing OSU's resume numbers against good teams, its bad.

In the tourney you are playing teams that are good. Just like in your conference. If you are 7-11 in conference why the heck should you be given a chance to rattle off 6 in a row?

[ChicosBailBonds]

In the tourney you are playing teams that are good. Just like in your conference. If you are 7-11 in conference why the heck should you be given a chance to rattle off 6 in a row?

It's a fair question.  My answer would be that the committee is trying to put the best teams in the tournament from an at-large perspective.  If they felt that 7-11 team in the ACC would be 10-8 in the Big 12, for example, they may feel that team is more worthy. 

But I totally get your point. 

Just for giggles, let's look at OSU vs MU   http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/OKLAST/MARQET

OSU's conference record sucks.  If one were to dig a little deeper into their top 50 losses, however, they have lost to Kansas by 2, Iowa State by 1, Oklahoma by 3, K State by 3, Baylor by 6.  Blown out twice.

MU vs top 50, lost to ASU by 2 and Wisconsin by 6.  UNM and Xavier by 7. Every other loss by big margins.  We also have a blowout loss to St. John's and they don't have any losses for a team 51 to 100.  Each team has a bad loss at 100+, though OSU's is to 104 T. Tech who might still get back below the 100 line.

SOS much tougher for OSU, etc.   

This is where the committee will have to decide, like you said, what impact that conference record has.  If OSU played in the Big East, would they have a better conference record than they do today?  If MU played in the Big 12, what would MU's conference record be?  I don't know the answer, that will be decisions that the committee and such will have to make if it comes down to those types of comparisons.

[Jay Bee]

Just for giggles, let's look at OSU vs MU   http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/OKLAST/MARQET

OSU's conference record sucks.  If one were to dig a little deeper into their top 50 losses, however, they have lost to Kansas by 2, Iowa State by 1, Oklahoma by 3, K State by 3, Baylor by 6.  Blown out twice.

MU vs top 50, lost to ASU by 2 and Wisconsin by 6.  UNM and Xavier by 7. Every other loss by big margins.  We also have a blowout loss to St. John's and they don't have any losses for a team 51 to 100.  Each team has a bad loss at 100+, though OSU's is to 104 T. Tech who might still get back below the 100 line.

SOS much tougher for OSU, etc.   

But again.. here's another place where the SOS is stupid and limited.

OkSt is 3-8 against the top 50.
MU is 2-8 against the top 50 (and 2-1 against 51-55 as they currently sit).

OkSt vs. top 20 RPI teams? 0-2
MU vs. top 20 RPI teams? 0-5

Yet the "SOS" per RPI says OkSt has had it WAY more tough. It's silly.

But OkSt played more crappy teams without ultra-awful records than MU and that's where they catch up.

---------
But.. on this specific comparison - they can point to Smart being out for some of their losses... assuming he is expected to be playing in mid-March, those losses can be somewhat forgiven.. it's a "different team" without him.

For MU... the argument is more difficult though I do believe a strong finish helps (I realize the old 'last 12 games' crap isn't listed any longer, but no doubt the recent play of teams is considered to varying degrees by different committee members)... if say, Duane Wilson came back a few weeks ago and we kept winning... some of those missteps early on (against a tough schedule) would be forgiven to a degree.

[PGsHeroes32]

It's a fair question.  My answer would be that the committee is trying to put the best teams in the tournament from an at-large perspective.  If they felt that 7-11 team in the ACC would be 10-8 in the Big 12, for example, they may feel that team is more worthy. 

But I totally get your point. 

Just for giggles, let's look at OSU vs MU   http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/OKLAST/MARQET

OSU's conference record sucks.  If one were to dig a little deeper into their top 50 losses, however, they have lost to Kansas by 2, Iowa State by 1, Oklahoma by 3, K State by 3, Baylor by 6.  Blown out twice.

MU vs top 50, lost to ASU by 2 and Wisconsin by 6.  UNM and Xavier by 7. Every other loss by big margins.  We also have a blowout loss to St. John's and they don't have any losses for a team 51 to 100.  Each team has a bad loss at 100+, though OSU's is to 104 T. Tech who might still get back below the 100 line.

SOS much tougher for OSU, etc.   

This is where the committee will have to decide, like you said, what impact that conference record has.  If OSU played in the Big East, would they have a better conference record than they do today?  If MU played in the Big 12, what would MU's conference record be?  I don't know the answer, that will be decisions that the committee and such will have to make if it comes down to those types of comparisons.

Yeah you bring up very fair points but I would like to add the SDSU loss. That was also close and on top of that looking at the scores of SDSU, Xavier and UNM don't do justice. Those games were dog fights throughout. Especially the two mountain west games. The OSU(ohio version), Crieghton and St. Johns games were ugly blow outs no doubt.

But, if you looks at OSU resume completely. They are 3-11 against teams that you would even consider worthy of discussion.

There is a lot to look at. On the outside even if they finish 7-11 they will probably have the RPI and SOS to make it. A bulk of top 100 wins. Good neutral court numbers but then if you take the time to look at it deeply you see major, major flaws.

[PGsHeroes32]

But.. on this specific comparison - they can point to Smart being out for some of their losses... assuming he is expected to be playing in mid-March, those losses can be somewhat forgiven.. it's a "different team" without him.

It is definitely true that they take into consideration players being out but the Smart case I think is different then most. First off, he caused this by being an idiot and not getting hurt and second they were into a tailspin before these two losses without him.

If they were playing well and then lost a bunch without him, that works way better.\

Also agree with you about the stupidity of RPI and SOS regarding non conference due to proper cupcake scheduling.

[PGsHeroes32]

But.. on this specific comparison - they can point to Smart being out for some of their losses... assuming he is expected to be playing in mid-March, those losses can be somewhat forgiven.. it's a "different team" without him.

It is definitely true that they take into consideration players being out but the Smart case I think is different then most. First off, he caused this by being an idiot and not getting hurt and second they were into a tailspin before these two losses without him.

If they were playing well and then lost a bunch without him, that works way better.\

Also agree with you about the stupidity of RPI and SOS regarding non conference due to proper cupcake scheduling.

[PGsHeroes32]

But.. on this specific comparison - they can point to Smart being out for some of their losses... assuming he is expected to be playing in mid-March, those losses can be somewhat forgiven.. it's a "different team" without him.

It is definitely true that they take into consideration players being out but the Smart case I think is different then most. First off, he caused this by being an idiot and not getting hurt and second they were into a tailspin before these two losses without him.

If they were playing well and then lost a bunch without him, that works way better.\

Also agree with you about the stupidity of RPI and SOS regarding non conference due to proper cupcake scheduling.

[ChicosBailBonds]

But again.. here's another place where the SOS is stupid and limited.

OkSt is 3-8 against the top 50.
MU is 2-8 against the top 50 (and 2-1 against 51-55 as they currently sit).

OkSt vs. top 20 RPI teams? 0-2
MU vs. top 20 RPI teams? 0-5

Yet the "SOS" per RPI says OkSt has had it WAY more tough. It's silly.

But OkSt played more crappy teams without ultra-awful records than MU and that's where they catch up.

---------
But.. on this specific comparison - they can point to Smart being out for some of their losses... assuming he is expected to be playing in mid-March, those losses can be somewhat forgiven.. it's a "different team" without him.

For MU... the argument is more difficult though I do believe a strong finish helps (I realize the old 'last 12 games' crap isn't listed any longer, but no doubt the recent play of teams is considered to varying degrees by different committee members)... if say, Duane Wilson came back a few weeks ago and we kept winning... some of those missteps early on (against a tough schedule) would be forgiven to a degree.

I don't think it is that silly for the following reason.  SOS factors in each team played, and MU playing 6 teams 200+ vs OSU's 3, is going to hurt MU's SOS.  That's why I like how Jerry is organizing the data here...the SOS for MU in their out of conference is 133.  OSU's is 15.  MU has a better SOS in conference than OSU, but when factoring conference and out of conference, OSU's SOS is much better.  As you stated, OSU played fewer teams with ultra crappy records, but that matters.

Let's also not forget OSU is 3-7 against top 35 RPI teams.  MU is 0-7.  MU's best RPI win is against #36. MU's only other top 50 win is against #49 Xavier, who could easily slip below that top 50 line.  OSU has three better wins than #36, including over #22 and #26...both may end up top #25 wins.  This is why I'm on my soapbox about Grambling.  They finished dead last in the RPI last year.  Even if you think they would improve their win total by 5 games, that is still only 5 wins and that is an RPI KILLER.  They have no business being on our schedule knowing how bad they were last year.  Knowing the formula of the RPI, you just can't schedule someone that bad regardless of how much one thinks they will improve.  Fact of the matter is, they didn't improve.  They only have one DI win this year.

I agree with you on the Smart stuff. 

[PGsHeroes32]

FU CK sorry for the triple post


My comp is messed up its getting obnoxious.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Also agree with you about the stupidity of RPI and SOS regarding non conference due to proper cupcake scheduling.

Just for giggles, say we were OSU fans and it came down to us and Marquette and we saw MU's schedule, the cupcakes, etc.  Would you feel the same way?  Or would you feel like OSU scheduled properly, took on tougher teams, didn't schedule so many teams that ended up so badly?

[PGsHeroes32]

Just for giggles, say we were OSU fans and it came down to us and Marquette and we saw MU's schedule, the cupcakes, etc.  Would you feel the same way?  Or would you feel like OSU scheduled properly, took on tougher teams, didn't schedule so many teams that ended up so badly?

Nope my opinion wouldn't change. On universal message boards many other college bball fans have the same line of thinking regarding OSU.

Like I said, if you look deeply we didn't schedule bad. OSU(ohio version again), at Wisco, as ASU, GW, SDSU(basically a road game) and UNM(another not so neutral).

Sure, we didn't win them but we challenged ourselves(probably expecting Vander to be around).

I just think the cupcake inflation is ridiciulous. Either way you are winning and probably by a lot. I also think is stupid the RPI of the A-10 teams. Sure because of who they are they have to play some road non conference games but they are most against bad teams. They win, and the RPI is way better then the teams really are.

I am not surprised GW is now losing. If that team does make the tourney they probably get abused first game. They have two solid players and a good d. We absolutely punished them and couldn't even punish southern. There prayer is for a once in a generation Doug McDermott awful game.

Got off course but illustrating the point of how badly some numbers tell the story on the surface.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If I were an OSU fan, I would be arguing that we played a tougher schedule, beat more top teams, lost to fewer "bad teams", played in the best conference in the country.  That's just anecdotally speaking.  Then I would pull out the RPI comparison tool, and it basically confirms the anecdotal evidence with numbers. 

We agree with how the RPI can be "played"...the A10 has done a good job of that, to their credit.  MU needs to do a better job with their cupcakes...this was not one of those years.

[willie warrior]

Nope my opinion wouldn't change. On universal message boards many other college bball fans have the same line of thinking regarding OSU.

Like I said, if you look deeply we didn't schedule bad. OSU(ohio version again), at Wisco, as ASU, GW, SDSU(basically a road game) and UNM(another not so neutral).

Sure, we didn't win them but we challenged ourselves(probably expecting Vander to be around).

I just think the cupcake inflation is ridiciulous. Either way you are winning and probably by a lot. I also think is stupid the RPI of the A-10 teams. Sure because of who they are they have to play some road non conference games but they are most against bad teams. They win, and the RPI is way better then the teams really are.

I am not surprised GW is now losing. If that team does make the tourney they probably get abused first game. They have two solid players and a good d. We absolutely punished them and couldn't even punish southern. There prayer is for a once in a generation Doug McDermott awful game.

Got off course but illustrating the point of how badly some numbers tell the story on the surface.

And of course, that is why GWashington is not a Quality Win, although some have insisted it was Right now, charitably, our only quality win is GTown.