Ners/Sultan and the point of no return

[mattyv1908]

First off, this is a great board.  I've read it for many years and decided to join this year due to the exasperating nature of this year's team.

I feel like this whole debate regarding playing time and minutes needs to be viewed through the point of view as where we were when the season started and where we are now.  Here's some questions hopefully to move the discussion forward amongst the board and not just continue the typical dialogue that devolves into lowest common denominator arguments.

1.  At 11-9 and barring going undefeated the rest of the way in conference or winning the BET we're going to miss the NCAAT.  That's a fact.  At what point does seeing what you have in your guys who will be here next year come into play?  Can we do that without our upperclassmen who are playing their hearts out (Gardner) giving up on the season?

2.  I think the board is for the most part in agreement that Gardner, J Wilson, Mayo and Taylor Jr. are our most offensively talented guys.  It makes sense to have 2-3 of those names on the court at all times.  What combination of pieces bring out the best/worst in our most important players?  Can the supporting/role players be utilized differently to increase the effectiveness of the above mentioned players?

3.  Is a wasted offensive possession due to ineffective play from players with some offensive limitations equal to that of an ineffective defensive possession due to ineffective play from players with some defensive limitations?  Is an inexperienced turnover from a ball handler (bad pass, bad decision) worse than a desparation shot as time expires on a shot clock from a terrible shooter after a sputtering offense failed to generate any offense on that possession?

4.  Can tweaking a few things with the lineup make us any worse?  I don't think anybody here has had championship aspirations in Buzz's entire tenure with the team, but I do think most of us expected an at large bid this year.  I don't think anyone here would trade coach Williams, but I think it's safe to say that our lineup through today is 11-9 and headed towards a .500 record and therefore can we see some experimentation to a) attempt to improve our record moving forward and b) not waste potential game experience on a season that hasn't turned out how expected.

Your thoughts...

[GooooMarquette]

Great questions.  My thoughts:

1.  You never give up on a season - it simply isn't fair to the seniors not to try to win as much as you can NOW...even when you get to the point where, as you said, the BET is our only path to the Dance.

2.  Yes...and most of the debate here has been about how best to use the "role" players like Derrick, Jake, John, et al.

3.  A wasted possession is a wasted possession.  Beginning of the game, end of the game.  That said, I'd rather have a missed shot - desperation or not - over a TO.  At least a missed desperation shot has a chance to go in. 

4.  Buzz is already constantly tweaking things - game to game, possession to possession.  The bigger the debate here is whether MAJOR changes should be made (i.e., giving Dawson the keys to the car for 25+ mpg).  I trust Buzz in believing that major changes could make things even worse.

[mattyv1908]

I appreciate the answers.  In follow up to your answer regarding my second question.

If D. Wilson, Thomas and Dawson are role players how come the first two are eating up huge minutes?  I wouldn't bench Wilson but I would utilize two distinct offensive strategies when splitting time between Wilson and Dawson.

I'd utilize Wilson in a small lineup which consists of Mayo, Thomas, J Wilson and Gardner/Otule.  I think this would minimize opposing teams ability to not play him honestly because you would have three players capable of knocking down the outside shot.  Having J Wilson play the 4 in this line up would force another teams big to guard the perimeter and give D Wilson a better opportunity to attack and find a shooter.  Playing him with a bigger line up makes his offensive shortcomings worse as teams pack it in so much that he can't even operate in the lane.

I'd utilize Dawson with a bigger line up consisting of Mayo/Thomas, J Wilson, Taylor Jr. and Gardner/Otule.  This would allow our team to operate the high/low because of proper spacing from the threat at PG to knock down the three or beat you off the dribble.  It also makes a pick and roll game more than just semantics like it is with Derrick on the floor.

It seems to me that where I think Buzz deserves some criticism is not that of his rotations but rather that he has stuck to the fact we have a quality front court and hasn't tried different things offensively such as a three guard offense to space the floor.  You can still utilize the bigs by going small on the perimeter.

[BM1090]

Good post. One point that I disagree with is the need to win out to make the tournament. 9-2 would put us at 20-11 (12-6). That would do it. Maybe as a fanbase we have a distorted view of what it takes to make the tournament because we've been a 3 seed for the past 2 years

[mattyv1908]

I think with this years team 20-11 leaves us on the outside looking in.  Those 9 remaining wins need Providence (both games), Villanova, Creighton, Xavier and Georgetown in that column for us to have an at large.

[jesmu84]

Good stuff Matt. Keep posting.

[We R Final Four]

I appreciate the answers.  In follow up to your answer regarding my second question.

If D. Wilson, Thomas and Dawson are role players how come the first two are eating up huge minutes? 

I think Ners has been asking this same question for what seems like a lifetime.  How come? How come?

[Eye]

Agree 9-2 or better the rest of the way and MU is probably in. 8-3 would require some damage in the BET. 7-4 or worse only in if win BET.

I'd rather have an above-average offensive team and below-average defensive team than the alternative. More margin for error in a higher-possession game than a lower-possession game.

And another request to keep posting. Your thoughts on using Wilson with the smaller lineup and Dawson with the bigger lineup are excellent.

[mattyv1908]

I guess here's my point.

Can anyone honestly say that Acker and Cubillan were a more talented backcourt than what we have this year?  They shot the three as a tandem better and Acker got into the lane but that's it.  We had Heyward playing out of position and Butler still developing but this team is way more talented top to bottom than that team.

I want Buzz to maximize what this team has.  If you don't have a point guard that is a threat to shoot and you don't have a shooting guard who can create his own shot then you better well have a guy like Mayo in the line up who can do both.

Not many NCAA teams have dominant front courts and therefore our primary post scorer Gardner doesn't need two other bigs on the court at the same time to be effective.  Our perimeter players are being limited because we don't give teams any difficult defensive matchups.  Putting Mayo on the floor with both Wilson and Thomas while moving J Wilson to the four makes our team much more difficult to guard.  Assuming teams put their two best perimeter defenders on Mayo and Thomas it now leaves D Wilson being guarded by a guy he might be able to take off the dribble creating rotation problems leaving shots for Thomas and Mayo.

It seems the obvious move to me.

[GooooMarquette]

If D. Wilson, Thomas and Dawson are role players how come the first two are eating up huge minutes?  I wouldn't bench Wilson but I would utilize two distinct offensive strategies when splitting time between Wilson and Dawson.

I would have no problem with Derrick and Jake getting fewer minutes, with the minutes basically divided among Todd, John and perhaps JJJ.  IMHO, Derrick might be better off at around 25 mpg and Jake at 20 (freeing up 12 mpg).  Assuming most of the residual minutes would go to Todd and John (JJJ's injury seems to have held him back), this would put Todd at around 27 and John at around 16.

I won't go into all of your situational rotations (but agree there are some good thoughts there), except to say I'd be reluctant to play John and Todd together too much.  John's defense clearly still needs work, and while Todd sometimes plays solid on-ball defense, he also gets caught napping occasionally.  To accomplish that, it might require occasionally playing John at SG (when Derrick is in), and Todd at PG (when Jake is in).

[mattyv1908]

Agree 9-2 or better the rest of the way and MU is probably in. 8-3 would require some damage in the BET. 7-4 or worse only in if win BET.

I'd rather have an above-average offensive team and below-average defensive team than the alternative. More margin for error in a higher-possession game than a lower-possession game.

And another request to keep posting. Your thoughts on using Wilson with the smaller lineup and Dawson with the bigger lineup are excellent.

I would like to add that with Dawson in the game I'd make sure J Wilson assisted as the 3 on the floor with bringing the ball up against quality pressure and to help facilitate were Dawson to get into a poor situation on the floor.

[mattyv1908]

All players have value.  All players have weaknesses.  This is not a simple take player X out and insert player Y and the season will turn around.  I'm glad this post hasn't turned into that.

I do feel like that this team is missing something from previous Buzz teams.  I don't think he has utilized his roster as effectively as it could have been used.  I think we've left 4-5 wins on the table because of this.

I've simply offered my thoughts on what I think could improve this.  Isn't that what all the frustration on this board is stemming from?  We all feel like this team, despite it's limitations, isn't living up to it's potential.

In the past it has seemed like every year our team's sum was greater than it's parts.  This year it's the parts that are greater than the sum.

One more comment about team defense.  What made us good defensive teams in the past was not our ability to shut teams down as we have always been prone to giving up a few easy buckets in the half court.  What made us so good defensively was our ability to force turnovers and turn them into transition baskets.  While Derrick and Jake may be our best on ball defenders, this team has far too few transition baskets and I think that more than anything is why this team is 11-9.

[PGsHeroes32]

Realistically we should just play Jamil, Ox and Todd til heart failure kicks in.

Everyone else fights for the other 80 minutes available.

[MerrittsMustache]

I appreciate the answers.  In follow up to your answer regarding my second question.

If D. Wilson, Thomas and Dawson are role players how come the first two are eating up huge minutes?  I wouldn't bench Wilson but I would utilize two distinct offensive strategies when splitting time between Wilson and Dawson.

I'd utilize Wilson in a small lineup which consists of Mayo, Thomas, J Wilson and Gardner/Otule.  I think this would minimize opposing teams ability to not play him honestly because you would have three players capable of knocking down the outside shot.  Having J Wilson play the 4 in this line up would force another teams big to guard the perimeter and give D Wilson a better opportunity to attack and find a shooter.  Playing him with a bigger line up makes his offensive shortcomings worse as teams pack it in so much that he can't even operate in the lane.

I'd utilize Dawson with a bigger line up consisting of Mayo/Thomas, J Wilson, Taylor Jr. and Gardner/Otule.  This would allow our team to operate the high/low because of proper spacing from the threat at PG to knock down the three or beat you off the dribble.  It also makes a pick and roll game more than just semantics like it is with Derrick on the floor.

It seems to me that where I think Buzz deserves some criticism is not that of his rotations but rather that he has stuck to the fact we have a quality front court and hasn't tried different things offensively such as a three guard offense to space the floor.  You can still utilize the bigs by going small on the perimeter.

Welcome to the posting world, matty. I like that you're bringing in some fresh ideas. However, I do see some issues with your line-ups, particularly defensively.

The 3-guard line-up with Derrick, Jake, Mayo, Jamil and Gardner would be greatly undersized defensively. PC, for instance, goes 6-1, 6-5, 6-6, 6-9, 6-9 with a 7-footer getting 20 min/game off the bench. With that line-up MU would get eaten alive on the interior, which is the team's strength. St. John's has some similar size, but more depth. I realize that this wouldn't necessarily be the primary line-up but it would be a mismatch for stretches of time.

The bigger line-up may also struggle defensively as Dawson, Taylor and Gardner are average at best defensively, Thomas can be exploited by quicker guards and Jamil has struggled with on-ball D, specifically buying too many shot fakes. That said, I liked the Dawson/Taylor combo together in the Gtown game, particularly with STJr in the high post. I'd also like to see Otule on the floor with STJr to have a strong defender in the post. If Gardner is on the bench, Mayo should be in the game as he's really the team's second-best scorer.

For at least a stretch, I feel like a line-up of Dawson, Mayo, Jamil, Taylor and Otule would have a good offense/defense balance. For the sake of argument, a counter offense/defense line-up could be Derrick, Jake, Burton, Jamil and Gardner.

The wild cards in all of this are Juan and JJJ. If either of those two, particularly JJJ, can come in and hit an outside shot with any sort of consistency, he could really make a huge difference down the stretch. Well, I suppose if Mayo or Jamil could start hitting with more consistency that would be a bonus too.

[Benny B]

Three wins is all it takes to dance.  Just three.  March 13th, 14th and 15th.  

The rest of the season, shall we say, is merely an exercise to determine the best way to maximize your chances of winning those three games.  If it means running every permutation of a lineup out there resulting in 11 losses just to figure out how to win three games in three days, I'm perfectly content with a 3-15 BE record... I'll be even happier if we can land on the 13-seed line.

[mattyv1908]

Obviously who you play can alter your lineups.

In our last three games against Butler, Georgetown and Villanova we were by far the bigger team in every game.  Generally speaking most teams don't have three guys going 6'9" across the front court at the collegiate level.

This is the most size Buzz has had since he got here.  Jamil played the 5 two years ago when Otule hurt his ACL against Wisconsin and Gardner missed two weeks with a knee injury.  We competed against teams with plenty of size that year.

[brandx]

One more comment about team defense.  What made us good defensive teams in the past was not our ability to shut teams down as we have always been prone to giving up a few easy buckets in the half court.  What made us so good defensively was our ability to force turnovers and turn them into transition baskets.  While Derrick and Jake may be our best on ball defenders, this team has far too few transition baskets and I think that more than anything is why this team is 11-9.

I think Jake & Jamil are the best we have playing team defense, but as far as on-ball, I have to disagree about Jake and Derrick . Jake doesn't have the quickness and we have faced several good PGs and Derrick has had held none of them in check.