+/- Georgetown Game

[BenCat12]

Name         Plus           Minus          Game      Min.        P/M per Min
J. Wilson           80             68              12        44           0.27
D. Gardner         75             51              24        40           0.6
C. Otule           19             31             -12        15          -0.8
J. Thomas          62             51              11        35           0.31
D. Wilson          23             24              -1        12          -0.08
J. Anderson      2              5               -3         4            -0.75
D. Burton          7             11              -4         6            -0.67
Mayo                20             27              -7        15          -0.47
Dawson           66             48              18        31           0.58
S. Taylor          44             44                0        23             0

[Silkk the Shaka]

Confirms the eye test - the Dawson, Thomas, JWilson, Taylor, Gardner lineup looked great in D.C. Hope there's more to come there.

[Lennys Tap]

Name         Plus           Minus          Game      Min.        P/M per Min
J. Wilson           80             68              12        44           0.27
D. Gardner         75             51              24        40           0.6
C. Otule           19             31             -12        15          -0.8
J. Thomas          62             51              11        35           0.31
D. Wilson          23             24              -1        12          -0.08
J. Anderson      2              5               -3         4            -0.75
D. Burton          7             11              -4         6            -0.67
Mayo                20             27              -7        15          -0.47
Dawson           66             48              18        31           0.58
S. Taylor          44             44                0        23             0

Interesting, but aren't the guys (Chris, Derrick) who play defense in the D/O switch going to do worse than the guys subbed in for offense (Davante, John)? Can the figures be adjusted to give a better picture? Thanks.

[BenCat12]

Interesting, but aren't the guys (Chris, Derrick) who play defense in the D/O switch going to do worse than the guys subbed in for offense (Davante, John)? Can the figures be adjusted to give a better picture? Thanks.

Surprisingly, the only game there was a large discrepancy was the game against Georgetown.  Otherwise the offense defense switch doesn't happen as much as we think it does.  Obviously sample size, in the case of JuJuan and Steve, and late game situations do effect the data slightly.  After re-watching the games, Mayo and Dawson's numbers are skewed positively because of Mayo's late game FT shooting ability and because of Buzz playing offense defense with Dawson in the Georgetown game.  For example, in OT against Georgetown Dawson was +13. 

Despite all the debate over D. Wilson vs Dawson, the real question that needs to be answered is why does Anderson get any minutes at this point?  An argument can also be made that a lineup of D. Wilson at point, Dawson at 2, Jake at 3 J.Wilson at 4 and Davante at 5, may be the best overall lineup.  Jake's ability to guard a "3" and rebound would be the question.  Another argument could be made that Otule and Mayo are seeing too many minutes.  Obviously the +/- stat is not an end all be all in regards to deserved playing time, but it is a different way at looking at how the team performs when certain individuals are on the court.

[Windyplayer]

Jake's ability to guard a "3" and rebound would be the question.

Big question. I'm guessing the answer would overwhelmingly be no against most opponents.

EDIT: I love Jake, and it's in no way a slight against him. This guy has hit one big shot after another over the last few games including two monster 3s in the last 6 minutes of the G-town game (third rattled out from way out). He's becoming a real threat beyond the arc, but to ask him to guard a 3 and rebound more often is unrealistic. I'd rather put my faith in Dawson figuring out on defense, put Jake at the 2 for 15-20 minutes, and have Taylor, Gardner, Wilson, and Otule occupy the 3-4-5. Obviously, we can play smaller sometimes, but if so, put Mayo at the 3--more athletic, better defender. 

[BenCat12]

Big question. I'm guessing the answer would overwhelmingly be no against most opponents.

EDIT: I love Jake, and it's in no way a slight against him. This guy has hit one big shot after another over the last few games including two monster 3s in the last 6 minutes of the G-town game (third rattled out from way out). He's becoming a real threat beyond the arc, but to ask him to guard a 3 and rebound more often is unrealistic. I'd rather put my faith in Dawson figuring out on defense, put Jake at the 2 for 15-20 minutes, and have Taylor, Gardner, Wilson, and Otule occupy the 3-4-5. Obviously, we can play smaller sometimes, but if so, put Mayo at the 3--more athletic, better defender. 

My point was that based strictly on the +/- of the last 5 games, the lineup I proposed would be the best overall....obviously Jake guarding a "3" could be difficult, but perhaps more zone could be used.  Right now there seems to be fairly strong statistical evidence that proves Anderson and Otule are killing this team right now.  That means more minutes for guards and perhaps playing smaller lineups like the one I mentioned.  Obviously if JuJuan and STjr are healthy and ready to play they could and probably should take minutes from Otule, Anderson and Mayo. 

[Windyplayer]

My point was that based strictly on the +/- of the last 5 games, the lineup I proposed would be the best overall....obviously Jake guarding a "3" could be difficult, but perhaps more zone could be used.  Right now there seems to be fairly strong statistical evidence that proves Anderson and Otule are killing this team right now.  That means more minutes for guards and perhaps playing smaller lineups like the one I mentioned.  Obviously if JuJuan and STjr are healthy and ready to play they could and probably should take minutes from Otule, Anderson and Mayo. 

I feel you.

[forgetful]

Name         Plus           Minus          Game      Min.        P/M per Min
J. Wilson           80             68              12        44           0.27
D. Gardner         75             51              24        40           0.6
C. Otule           19             31             -12        15          -0.8
J. Thomas          62             51              11        35           0.31
D. Wilson          23             24              -1        12          -0.08
J. Anderson      2              5               -3         4            -0.75
D. Burton          7             11              -4         6            -0.67
Mayo                20             27              -7        15          -0.47
Dawson           66             48              18        31           0.58
S. Taylor          44             44                0        23             0

Nice stats.  Another interesting way to look at the +/- is the roland rating, which is a comparison to the +/- when they are on the court compared to the +/- when they are off the court.

For Georgetown game.

Player                                 RR
J. Wilson                             +16
D. Gardner                          +38
C. Otule                              -22
D. Wilson                            -30
J. Thomas                            +8
J. Dawson                           +34
T. Mayo                              -20
J. Anderson                         -16
S. Taylor                              0
D. Burton                            -18

Gives a great perspective of the how much impact some players had. 

[rocky_warrior]

Similarly, sorted for decreasing PM/min...
Name         Plus           Minus          Game      Min.        P/M per Min
D. Gardner    75             51              24       40           0.6
Dawson        66             48              18       31           0.58
J. Thomas     62             51              11       35           0.31
J. Wilson     80             68              12       44           0.27
S. Taylor     44             44               0       23           0.0
D. Wilson     23             24             -1        12          -0.08
Mayo          20             27             -7        15          -0.47
D. Burton      7             11             -4         6          -0.67
J. Anderson    2              5             -3         4          -0.75
C. Otule      19             31             -12       15          -0.8