Nova Stats

[MU82]

And of course you have done an in-depth study of Junior's versus Derrick's assists?  

I'm way too effen lazy, but I'd love to see Paint Touches or somebody else do something on this.

[MUfan12]

Making passes on time and on target to me = an assist.  Maybe you meant a pass on time and on target that didn't lead to a score?  Doesn't make much sense but that could be what you meant I guess.  

Derrick this year and Junior last year are averaging the same number of assists per game.  Not sure in what other way you could argue that one is better at creating offense for others than by the number of assists they get.  

Creating offense is more than assists, which is why I mentioned attacking and transition play as well.

Obviously, assists are a part of it. Sometimes, the pass that sets up the assist is just as important, when it comes to getting guys in position to score. The "hockey assist," which coaches are starting to track now. Junior was pretty good at that. Derrick tends to take a couple extra dribbles before making a decision. That's why I said on time and on target.

MU isn't getting as many buckets in transition. Part of that is on the PG, and some on the personnel around him. I think Derrick doesn't see where he's going with the ball as quickly as Junior did. Conversely, Wilson is stuck with Jake floating to the wing, instead of Vander attacking the hoop.

As far as attacking seams goes, Junior got really good at getting into the paint. Take last year's UW game as an example... Junior found gaps and made some big baskets in the paint. Did the same against Butler in the NCAAs. To his credit, Wilson has been better with that of late.

Look, I'm not blaming everything on Derrick. If you want to simplify "creating offense" to the assists per game number, that's fine. I watch the games very closely, and have seen a marked difference in those areas from last year to this one.

[NersEllenson]

getting an assist for passing to Davante who is 10' from the basket and backs his man down to the hoop for a layup or passing to Todd who drives,steps back ,creating space, and drains a three are not equal to passing to a cutting ST or driving the lane and  passing out to an open shooter. there are assists and then there are assists.

Truth.

What's also true is the opposition guarded Junior on the perimeter and in the mid range.  We also had a transition game last year.  Our fast break points scored this year is abysmal.

[brandx]

Facts might get in the way of blaming everything on Derrick.

Again, I don't think anyone has blamed everything on Derrick. Says something about your argument when you need to make something up to prove your point.

Saying DW is the biggest weakness is a very, very far cry from placing all blame on Derrick.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Creating offense is more than assists, which is why I mentioned attacking and transition play as well.

Obviously, assists are a part of it. Sometimes, the pass that sets up the assist is just as important, when it comes to getting guys in position to score. The "hockey assist," which coaches are starting to track now. Junior was pretty good at that. Derrick tends to take a couple extra dribbles before making a decision. That's why I said on time and on target.

MU isn't getting as many buckets in transition. Part of that is on the PG, and some on the personnel around him. I think Derrick doesn't see where he's going with the ball as quickly as Junior did. Conversely, Wilson is stuck with Jake floating to the wing, instead of Vander attacking the hoop.

As far as attacking seams goes, Junior got really good at getting into the paint. Take last year's UW game as an example... Junior found gaps and made some big baskets in the paint. Did the same against Butler in the NCAAs. To his credit, Wilson has been better with that of late.

Look, I'm not blaming everything on Derrick. If you want to simplify "creating offense" to the assists per game number, that's fine. I watch the games very closely, and have seen a marked difference in those areas from last year to this one.

Fair enough.  Thanks for the explanation

[willie warrior]

Facts might get in the way of blaming everything on Derrick.

MU last year: Elite 8; 26-9
MU this year: Toilet Bowl; 11-9
Just the facts M'am.

[4everwarriors]

Could go on a 15 game win streak, aina?

[jesmu84]

getting an assist for passing to Davante who is 10' from the basket and backs his man down to the hoop for a layup or passing to Todd who drives,steps back ,creating space, and drains a three are not equal to passing to a cutting ST or driving the lane and  passing out to an open shooter. there are assists and then there are assists.

In another thread, someone checked the game play-by-play and found all of derrick's assists. None of them came from Davante backing down his defender. I can't remember if one came from a Mayo 3.

[rocky_warrior]

Assist breakdown done by ATL MU Warrior...

You and I tend to fall on the same "side" of this debate or at least see things the same way.  However, according to the play by play on espn.com, Derrick's assists break down like this:

REGULATION
- Chris for dunk.  Good post-entry pass (thought Derrick couldn't do this) to Chris
- Steve for layup.  Don't remember this play but must have been another interior pass which derrick cannot do
- Jamil for layup.  same comment as for steve
- Jamil for jumper
- Todd Mayo layup
- Todd Mayo 3-pointer

OT
- Gardner for jumper

So in regulation, 4 out of 6 assists were for layups/dunks to four different guys.  I don't remember the particulars for some of them, but as is usually the case, the bashers are making up their own facts (Derrick's assists are BS, Gardner backed his guy down and did all the work, etc., etc.).  Total fantasy made up by a bunch of frustrated fans looking for someone to blame. 

BTW, 6-9 of Gardners buckets were credited an assist, mostly by Jamil.

I agree that Derrick isn't great.  I would like to see him split time with John Dawson.  But, he's not as bad as most here make him out to be.  A simple review of the facts tells you that. 

[MU82]

Again, I don't think anyone has blamed everything on Derrick.

I don't blame Derrick for a single thing.

Derrick is who he is. It is not his fault he isn't John Stockton or Chris Paul or even Junior Cadougan. He obviously works hard and plays hard and does his best.

I'm a big Buzz fan, but he makes mistakes, too. His over-reliance on a guy who should be an 8-15 mpg backup PG is his fault and his alone. Oh sure, Vander leaving and Duane's injury were unlucky, but the buck stops at Buzz, and he didn't give his team the best chance of winning right from the start this season because he didn't give his team a true high-major PG. And now he doesn't give Derrick the best chance to succeed because he plays Derrick too many minutes and asks him to do too much offensively.

[CTWarrior]

There have been comments that MU lost due to offensive rebounds. I disagree. MU lost eFG%, Turnover Rate, AND offensive rebounding. The overall OR% was not significantly in Nova's favor.

Thanks for the stats.  Just because our good offensive rebounding offset our bad defensive rebounding, it doesn't mean our defensive rebounding wasn't bad.  From following the game log on ESPN,com (don't know how reliable that is), I counted 16 second chance points scored and 16 second chance points allowed.  Gardner was a monster on the offensive boards, as most of those 16 came on his offensive rebounds.

[Henry Sugar]

Thanks for the stats.  Just because our good offensive rebounding offset our bad defensive rebounding, it doesn't mean our defensive rebounding wasn't bad.  From following the game log on ESPN,com (don't know how reliable that is), I counted 16 second chance points scored and 16 second chance points allowed.  Gardner was a monster on the offensive boards, as most of those 16 came on his offensive rebounds.

I'm not arguing that defensive rebounding was good. It wasn't.

My point is that defensive rebounding is not the best culprit for why MU lost. MU lost all three of the most important Factors. They lost eFG% AND TORate AND Offensive Rebounding Percentage.

I'll put it another way. MU lost by 0.10 ppp
eFG% - 0.06
TO - 0.02
OR - 0.02

Arguing that defensive rebounding was the problem obfuscates the truth. The biggest culprit on the margin of loss was the eFG% difference. In particular, I argue they lost because Villanova took 28 threes and hit 10 of them.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Assist breakdown done by ATL MU Warrior.

Thanks for the credit Rocky. 

I actually spent some time at work yesterday (for shame I know) going through each of our games this year on ESPN.com and breaking down all of Derrick's assists by the type of score they generated.  I did this using espn.com's play by play which has three categories of scores:  Dunk/layup, jumper, 3-pointer.  There were a few games where the total assists credited to Derrick didn't jive with the play-by-play so in those cases I grouped the assist into an "unknown" category.

So, the first thing I noticed is that Derrick has accounted for 25.6% of MU's assists so far this year.  To me this is important because it is the primary way in which you can see (statistically at least) his ability as a PG to be the catalyst in creating offense for others.  In our wins (for the most part lesser opponents where DW likely got fewer minutes) that number drops to 22.5%.  In our losses (quality opponents, DW plays more minutes) that number increases to 32%.  Cupcakes removed, the number is 27.2%.

For comparison sake, I went back and looked at previous MU PGs to see what their full season totals were:
Junior 12-13       27.5%
Junior 11-12       29.0%
Junior 10-11       20.0%
Dwight 10-11      21.0%
Acker 09-10        24.6%
DJ 08-09            27.3%
DJ 07-08            29.9%
DJ 06-07            35.2%
DJ 05-06            34.6%
Diener 04-05      37.7%
Diener 03-04      47.1%
Diener 02-03      34.3%

I have bolded the PGs/years that seem to be far and away the leaders (Diener *wow* and DJ's first two years) in generating team offense.  At first glance, it appears that Derrick's performance so far this year isn't terribly inconsistent with Junior or DJ's last couple of years.  If you look at his performance against only our best opponents, his numbers equal/surpass Junior and DJ's last couple of years.  Of course, we are not winning any of those games.  But, those losses don't appear to be due to our PG's ability to generate team offense, at least in comparison to earlier MU PG's and the % of team assists they generated.

Now, on to Derrick's # and % of assists by type of basket scored:

          Dunk/Layup     Jumper     3-Pointer    Unknown    Total
#             22                 15            33               6            76
%           29%               20%        43%            8%          100%

So, the eyeball test is pretty accurate in this area as the largest # of DW's assists have been on 3-pointers  (still not sure how that's a bad thing, especially since this team is so god awful at 3-point shooting).  BUT, nearly a 3rd of his assists are on baskets scored at the rim which is something that many think Derrick isn't capable of doing.

I didn't have time to do this same exercise for Junior, but I think it would be a very interesting comparison.  Hopefully I will be able to get to it later this week, but duty calls at work for the next couple of days. 

Now, for those that are more statistically savvy than I am...feel free to rip to shreds!