NIT Blound

[MU82]

This was our 2010-2011 full non conference slate:

Prairie View AM - W
Bucknell - W (barely)
Green Bay - W
South Dakota - W
Duke - L
Gonzaga - L
@ Milwaukee - W
Longwood - W
Texas AMCC - W
Wisconsin - L
Centenary - W
Miss Valley State - W
@Vandy - L

For a total non conference record of 9-4. We then proceeded to go 9-9 in conference for a 18-13 record. We ended up in the sweet 16.

I don't think all hope is lost and I don't necessarily think we are NIT Blound, but 9-9 in the NBE will not be the RPI equivalent of going 9-9 in the 2011 Big East. We are probably going to have to win a dozen or so league games to get into the NCAAs, and that's if we win out in nonconference play by beating New Mexico and the cupcakes.

[jesmu84]

Relying on that precident could be dangerous.

True. But someone asked him to prove that it happened. And he did.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wow....losing a close one to the Badgers really tied some people's panties into knots.

We WILL beat New Mexico in two weeks
We WILL finish in the top four of the BEast
We WILL be dancing in March

Not really trying to analyze here, just going on the record. Three road losses to RPI top 50 teams and one home loss to a top 5 team does not mean the season is over. Sheesh people

[ChicosBailBonds]

This was our 2010-2011 full non conference slate:

Prairie View AM - W
Bucknell - W (barely)
Green Bay - W
South Dakota - W
Duke - L
Gonzaga - L
@ Milwaukee - W
Longwood - W
Texas AMCC - W
Wisconsin - L
Centenary - W
Miss Valley State - W
@Vandy - L

For a total non conference record of 9-4. We then proceeded to go 9-9 in conference for a 18-13 record. We ended up in the sweet 16.

We were also one of the last teams in and some argued outside the bubble prior to the Big East tournament that year.  Joe Lunardi had us I believe the 2nd to last team in prior to the BET.

We got a lot of benefit that year from a very powerful conference which we don't play in any longer.

Not saying you aren't right with your potential prediction, but that season record and this season's record are not apples to apples due to who we played and the conference we played in.

[MU82]

Wow....losing a close one to the Badgers really tied some people's panties into knots.

We WILL beat New Mexico in two weeks
We WILL finish in the top four of the BEast
We WILL be dancing in March

Not really trying to analyze here, just going on the record. Three road losses to RPI top 50 teams and one home loss to a top 5 team does not mean the season is over. Sheesh people

Fact: We have lost to the only four good teams on our schedule to date (or 4 of 5 if one considers GW good, which is still to be seen). We also struggled to beat Southern and New Hampshire.

Opinion: We will beat New Mexico, finish in Big East top four and be dancing in March.

None of this means the season is over, but the facts offer at least some reason for concern. Meanwhile, the opinions are, well, opinions. Curious, TAMU, was it also your opinion that we would lose to Ohio State, Arizona State, San Diego State and Wisconsin State? If so, these more recent opinions will have more credibility!

[chapman]

I don't think all hope is lost and I don't necessarily think we are NIT Blound, but 9-9 in the NBE will not be the RPI equivalent of going 9-9 in the 2011 Big East. We are probably going to have to win a dozen or so league games to get into the NCAAs, and that's if we win out in nonconference play by beating New Mexico and the cupcakes.

Yep, 9-9 in the best season for a single conference ever can do wonders - we played an elite team pretty much every night out.  The new conference's 9/16 or ~6th place team probably won't make the tournament, much less win the national title, and its 11/16 or ~7th place team may not get an NIT invite rather than going to the S16. 

The old conference was a gift from that standpoint - a great resume game almost every time out.  We beat two top 10 teams at home, a top 15 team on the road, and since six of our road games were against top 20 teams so many of the losses were almost a free shot from a resume standpoint - this year, @Villanova is currently the only game that fits that category.  Unlike the 9-9 year where showing up some nights and not others was okay, this year you really do need to show up every night out since you can't undo all of the bad and more from dropping a game against a middle of the pack team just by winning the next one.  We tried to get a few mulligans for later by scheduling some challenges before conference play, and that has failed.  Really going to need to show up every night, regardless of opponent.

[brewcity77]

Fact: We have lost to the only four good teams on our schedule to date (or 4 of 5 if one considers GW good, which is still to be seen). We also struggled to beat Southern and New Hampshire.

Opinion: We will beat New Mexico, finish in Big East top four and be dancing in March.

None of this means the season is over, but the facts offer at least some reason for concern. Meanwhile, the opinions are, well, opinions. Curious, TAMU, was it also your opinion that we would lose to Ohio State, Arizona State, San Diego State and Wisconsin State? If so, these more recent opinions will have more credibility!

Fact: Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.

[ronald dragon]

These threads will be great to read in March.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Fact: We have lost to the only four good teams on our schedule to date (or 4 of 5 if one considers GW good, which is still to be seen). We also struggled to beat Southern and New Hampshire.

Opinion: We will beat New Mexico, finish in Big East top four and be dancing in March.

None of this means the season is over, but the facts offer at least some reason for concern. Meanwhile, the opinions are, well, opinions. Curious, TAMU, was it also your opinion that we would lose to Ohio State, Arizona State, San Diego State and Wisconsin State? If so, these more recent opinions will have more credibility!

I thought we would beat Arizona State but lose to Ohio State, Creighton (didn't expect SDSU to be there) and Wisconsin. When it ended up being SDSU I expected to win.

I'm not trying to pass opinions off as facts, just logging predictions.

[NotAnAlum]

I think there are a LOT of similarities between this team and the 2010-2011 team.  That year Junior didn't really play well until the end of the season.  In fact he had his best game against WVU.  Lots of new parts then had to jell, just like now.  If Duane W plays so that Derrick doesn't have to play as much and we get some scoring from the point.  If JJJ and Burton mature so that they can give you some solid minutes and Jake can go back to being a situational player (and hopefully a better situational player than last year).  If Steve Taylor truly gets healthy.  This team could be really playing well in late Feb.  Go to the championship of the BE tourney.  They probably get in as a 9-12 seed.  True we don't have as much margin for error as before.  But its been along time since we were on the bubble and we've forgotten has flawed those bubble teams usually are.  Buzz has worked his magic too many times for me to lose hope this early.  Enjoy the ride. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

These threads will be great to read in March.

One way or another

[MU82]

I thought we would beat Arizona State but lose to Ohio State, Creighton (didn't expect SDSU to be there) and Wisconsin. When it ended up being SDSU I expected to win.

I'm not trying to pass opinions off as facts, just logging predictions.

Reasonably explained. Thanks.

[MUFlutieEffect]

This is a great post. Thanks.

I think this is the first time I, quite literally, laughed out loud at an MUScoop post.  Well said.