When does an upset stop being an upset?

[MU82]

So-called expert after so-called expert is picking Davidson to upset Marquette.

Millions upon millions of fans no doubt are picking Davidson in their brackets, thinking they're picking a huge upset.

Even Vegas only has us as a 3- or 4-point favorite, a ridiculously narrow spread for a 3-vs-14 matchup.

So the question is: How much of an "upset" would this really be? 3 points? That's the kind of spread an 8-vs.-9 game might have; would that be deemed a major upset should the "underdog" win?

I live in NC and have seen Davidson a lot, and I have some trepidation about this game. (For the record, I said MU 81-74 on another thread.) But to tell you the truth, somehow being viewed as the most likely "upset victim" by so many so-called experts makes me feel a little less insecure.

When so many people keep parroting the same thing -- especially so many people who probably haven't seen Marquette often and probably have not seen Davidson play since Curry left -- it's time to take the contrarian viewpoint.

Hell, at this point, it would be an upset if Marquette wins!

[madtownwarrior]

if enough lazy journalists copy the same story line and enough parrots repeat it - it must be true....

I am sure playing Wofford, Elon, Furman, Georgia Southern and Citadel has prepared them well for a team that plays Lousiville, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, ND...

[TJ]

Marquette will dictate whether they win or lose this game.  If they play well, they will win.  Simple as that.  14 seeds only win with the 3 seed is caught off guard and plays poorly.  This is certainly possible, but MU's fate is in its own hands.

[Jam Chowder]

if enough lazy journalists copy the same story line and enough parrots repeat it - it must be true....

I am sure playing Wofford, Elon, Furman, Georgia Southern and Citadel has prepared them well for a team that plays Lousiville, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, ND...

+1

This is Marquette's game to lose. No matter what the clowns in the media say, this would be a huge upset if Marquette lost. MU SHOULD be a S16 team. If they don't make it, it will be because they failed to play the kind of basketball they are capable of.

[Warriors10]

It's an upset.  Just because writers say it over and over again doesn't mean it isn't one.  You look on ESPN and Yahoo's bracket challenges, ~90 percent are picking Marquette to still win.  Compare that to ~82 percent having Arizona over Belmont and ~78 percent having Butler over Bucknell.

[brewcity77]

Ever notice how when everyone picks the same upset, that upset usually doesn't happen? Last year, everyone touted Belmont as the team that would beat Georgetown. The Bruins got rolled by 15. Two years ago it was UConn who would be too tired after playing 5 games in 5 days to handle Bucknell. How's their national title looking? In 2010, it was Siena who was going to take down Purdue, a -3.5 favorite that was 0-4-1 ATS going into the tourney. Purdue beat them by 8 and only lost to eventual national champion Duke.

The trendy upsets are usually the ones you want to avoid. Maybe that's not always the case, but I think when a heavy favorite hears all week how vulnerable they are, it motivates them. Buzz has a week to gameplan and play the underdog card with these guys. Every time ESPN, or USA Today, or SI picks against us, I guarantee Buzz will let these guys hear it. He's been saying all year long that we aren't that good and all this team did was go out and win the Big East. Here's more ammo for him to say "see, all these guys know you aren't that good, you can't even beat Davidson" and I think our Warriors will come out like a pack of rabid dogs.

But what do I know?

[NavinRJohnson]

There is going to be some upsets, but despite all the talk and second guessing, in general the committee usually gets it right.

I find this extremely interesting...in the past thirteen years, a 14 seed has beaten a 3 seed three times. In the prior thirteen years, the number is three times that at 9, so history shows us that a 3 seed will win about one out of every 7 or 8 times out. More recent history shows that number to be closer to 1 out of every 20. Where it seemed to be common in the 90s, it appears to be a significant exception since.

Year   Winner   Loser   Score
2010   Ohio   Georgetown   97-83
2006   Northwestern State   Iowa   64-63
2005   Bucknell   Kansas   64-63
1999   Weber State   North Carolina   76-74
1998   Richmond   South Carolina   62-61
1997   Chattanooga   Georgia   73-70
1995   Old Dominion   Villanova   89-81 (3OT)
1995   Weber State   Michigan State   79-72
1992   East Tennessee State   Arizona   87-80
1991   Xavier   Nebraska   89-84
1990   Northern Iowa   Missouri   74-71
1989   Siena   Stanford   80-78
1988   Murray State   NC State   78-75
1987   Austin Peay   Illinois   68-67
1986   Cleveland State   Indiana   83-79
1986   Arkansas-Little Rock   Notre Dame   90-83

As much as everyone (myself included)  talks about parity, it makes me wonder if that is a little bit of a myth, at least where the ends of the spectrum a concerened, or if the increased usage of RPI in the selection and seeding process has had the desired effect (dont really know when rpi came into use or how it's evolved). Has the growth and strenthening of power conferences widened the gap, or is it all just coincidence?

[We R Final Four]

Ever notice how when everyone picks the same upset, that upset usually doesn't happen? Last year, everyone touted Belmont as the team that would beat Georgetown. The Bruins got rolled by 15. Two years ago it was UConn who would be too tired after playing 5 games in 5 days to handle Bucknell. How's their national title looking? In 2010, it was Siena who was going to take down Purdue, a -3.5 favorite that was 0-4-1 ATS going into the tourney. Purdue beat them by 8 and only lost to eventual national champion Duke.

The trendy upsets are usually the ones you want to avoid. Maybe that's not always the case, but I think when a heavy favorite hears all week how vulnerable they are, it motivates them. Buzz has a week to gameplan and play the underdog card with these guys. Every time ESPN, or USA Today, or SI picks against us, I guarantee Buzz will let these guys hear it. He's been saying all year long that we aren't that good and all this team did was go out and win the Big East. Here's more ammo for him to say "see, all these guys know you aren't that good, you can't even beat Davidson" and I think our Warriors will come out like a pack of rabid dogs.

But what do I know?

+1.  This is the perfect scenario for Buzz.  We are the #3 seed and Buzz still is allowed to use the 'us against the world' mantra.  What could be better?  I would be more concerned if the talking heads said that MU won't be tested until the S16 , etc.  that is not a fovorable position for us.  Buzz will have them ready.

[MU82]

Ever notice how when everyone picks the same upset, that upset usually doesn't happen? Last year, everyone touted Belmont as the team that would beat Georgetown. The Bruins got rolled by 15. Two years ago it was UConn who would be too tired after playing 5 games in 5 days to handle Bucknell. How's their national title looking? In 2010, it was Siena who was going to take down Purdue, a -3.5 favorite that was 0-4-1 ATS going into the tourney. Purdue beat them by 8 and only lost to eventual national champion Duke.

The trendy upsets are usually the ones you want to avoid. Maybe that's not always the case, but I think when a heavy favorite hears all week how vulnerable they are, it motivates them. Buzz has a week to gameplan and play the underdog card with these guys. Every time ESPN, or USA Today, or SI picks against us, I guarantee Buzz will let these guys hear it. He's been saying all year long that we aren't that good and all this team did was go out and win the Big East. Here's more ammo for him to say "see, all these guys know you aren't that good, you can't even beat Davidson" and I think our Warriors will come out like a pack of rabid dogs.

But what do I know?

I have noticed this; I was just too lazy to look up all the examples. Thanks for doing the work, brew!!!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Hanley from the SCORE has MU winning it all...all homers should follow his blind lead.   

[MerrittsMustache]

Most national college basketball journalists don't know very many teams in-depth. I'd be willing to guess that very, very few of them have watched a Davidson game from beginning to end and most of them have probably watched, at most, parts of Marquette games.

If you consider that and look at the very surface level, Marquette has been inconsistent this season especially away from home while Davidson has won 17 straight games and they gave a Final Four team a decent game in the 1st round last season. Not to mention, Davidson's E8 run is still relatively fresh in people's minds while Marquette's MO is that they play hard. That's the equation for a semi-informed upset pick.