How valuable is Jerel McNeal?Anybody up for some legit statistical analysis of Jerel McNeal's productivity and value to Marquette? The guys over at Villanova by the Numbers posted an exceptional evaluation of the talented Mr. McNeal earlier this week.
As any MU fan knows, McNeal is a box score stuffer extraordinaire - - which is generally good (steals, rebounds, points) and sometimes bad (turnovers, low shooting percentage, and propensity to take too many shots at the expense of more efficient teammeates like Fitzgerald and Cubillan). Their analysis, using fairly standard metrics employed by Pomeroy and others, suggests that McNeal is a drag on offense and a boon on defense for the Golden Eagles. Turnovers and poor shot selection played a role in the offensive liability, but McNeal's sublime defense more than makes up for any marginal shortcomings on offense. Still, the analysis points out that if McNeal can improve his offensive efficiency (ie, hit a higher % of shots by taking better shots), MU could see a spike in overall offensive production.
Their analysis is purely a statistical exercise however, and fails to account for McNeal's 'presence' on the court (the guys over at FireJoeMorgan just threw up in their mouths). By 'presence' I don't mean to imply that MU benefits just from McNeal showing up -- but his ability to break down a defense off the dribble does in fact allow MU to have a more dynamic, wide-open attack.
While McNeal's absence late in the season plots out as a net gain in offensive efficiency for MU -- anybody who saw the St Johns or Michigan State games knows that MU was crippled in those games, unable to break down defenses or create easy shot opportunities as a result of defensive pressure. I'd argue that the spike in offensive efficiency in those final games had more to do with higher percentage shooters like Cubillan, Fitzgerald and Matthews taking more shots in McNeal's absence -- more than MU suddenly becoming a better offensive team (they were not ...... unless you are a fan of the Mike Deane weave, that is)Read their analysis here.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2007/08/how-valuable-is-jerel-mcneal.html
