[Cracked Sidewalks] Buzz unmatched in turning non-prospects into NBA players, and now 8 of current players/signees are top 100 recruits

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Buzz unmatched in turning non-prospects into NBA players, and now 8 of current players/signees are top 100 recruits

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

In just two years Marquette has had three players drafted who were not ranked in the RSCI top 200 [color=white;">out]
[color=white;">[color=white;">I]here[/url], but here is the math for the players who have come and gone at Marquette since the RSCI ratings started in 1998.[/color]




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RSCI rankRSCI of ex-MU players%NBALikely NBAActual NBAMade NBA/Did not[/tr]

1 to 9	0	0.88	0	0
10 to 30	0	0.45	0	0
31 to 40	1	0.22	0.22	0	None / James
41 to 70	6	0.15	0.9	3	Diener, Novak, Matthews / McNeal, Maymon, J.Jones
71 to 100	4	0.1	0.4	0	None / Mason, E.Williams, Merritt, Mbakwe
101 to 140	6	0.08	0.48	2	Wade, Hayward / Howard, Bell, Henry, Bradley
141 to 200	1	0.03	0.03	0	None / Blankson
NR	36	0.01	0.36	3	Butler, Crowder, DJO /33
Total	54		2.39	8

Dominic James is MUs highest recruit WHO HAS FINISHED PLAYING since RSCI started, but only 22% of players ranked between 31st and 40th like James was make the NBA.

Marquette has had six players ranked 41st to 70th, and normally only 15% of them are drafted, so you would expect just one of the six to have been drafted.  If we fudge a little to count Wesley Matthews, then he joins Travis Diener and Steve Novak to give MU three produced.  Jerel McNeal almost gave MU an amazing 4 of 6, and actually Jeronne Maymon and Jamail Jones could still make it, but since they have left MU I count them as gone.

MUs success continues to grow as both Dwyane Wade and Lazar Hayward were in the 101st to 140th spots that usually only gives you an 8% chance to make it, so on average you have less than a 50/50 to get an NBA player out of six players in this category, and MU is way ahead of the curve with two - one of them still being the 3rd best player in the NBA according to ESPN/Hollinger.  So let's give Tom Crean credit for finding or developing diamonds in the rough.

However, I'm pretty sure that statistically there is no coach in the nation nearly as good as Buzz Williams has been at turning players into NBA players over the past few years.  In addition to the huge jump Matthews took in his one year with Buzz at the helm, with only 1% of non-RSCI players making the draft, a team with 36 such players would normally not have even one make the NBA - but certainly not three.  And when you consider that these three were actually in just two years, I almost doubt any coach has EVER turned three non-top 200 players into NBA players in just two drafts.

Add it all up, and based on the recruits MU has had since 1998, you would expect MU to have produced 2.39 NBA players and instead MU has produced 8.

Current Roster and Recruits

Now let's look at where the current roster ranked on the same table:



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[color=white;">
RSCI rankRSCI of current%NBALikely NBACurrent & Recruits[/tr]

1 to 9	0	0.88	0	None
10 to 30	1	0.45	0.45	Blue
31 to 40	0	0.22	0	None
41 to 70	4	0.15	0.6	J. Wilson, Cadougan (2014 Du. Wilson, Burton)
71 to 100	3	0.1	0.3	Lockett, Anderson, S. Taylor
101 to 140	1	0.08	0.08	Ferguson
141 to 200	1	0.03	0.03	D. Wilson
NR	5	0.01	0.05	Otule, Gardner, Thomas, Mayo (2014 McKay)
Total	15		1.51

Vander Blue is MUs highest RSCI player ever, squeezing into the second category at 30th - where almost half of players have been drafted.  Blue is not projected to be drafted now, BUT the new piece on Wages of Wins shows any NBA Scout watching that players improve dramatically each year until they are 25.  At the beginning of this month, Blue was still 19 and Crowder was 21 - both very young for a sophomore and senior respectively.  As a rising sophomore, Todd Mayo turned 21 in March.

So while players normally make their biggest jump after their sophomore, based on age it could still be coming this year for Blue.

Not only does MU have it's highest RSCI recruit ever in Blue with two years of eligibility left, but of the 19 RSCI top 100 players MU has signed in 16 years, an amazing 8 are either on the MU team now or have signed.  MU has put together top 25 teams with rosters that were not Top 25 rosters by finding diamonds and coaching them up.  Now MU has crafted a true top 10 roster moving forward, and if Buzz can coach up high 4-star players the way he has coached up 3-stars and low 4-stars, the future could truly be bright.

Then you start to look down to the bottom of the table and see players like Gardner who could be All-Big East and McKay who could follow in Crowder's footsteps as JUCO player of the year, and a 2014 run looks realistic.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/07/buzz-unmatched-in-turning-non-prospects.html

[Dr. Blackheart]

So, not to start a flame war, but to start a flame war, Brian Butch (7) is one of the few top 9 who did not get drafted.  Can you explain why he and Krabbenhoft (29) didn't get the call in numbers while Stiemsma and Leuer did?  How does Dekker look at 13?  Or Steve Taylor as #1 out of Illinois but down the list on RSCI?  It seems RSCI is a very accurate predictor so trying to understand the outliers.

I think of the little I have seen Dekker on video, I struggle with that high RSCI.  Taylor, while a bit raw and over shadowed, seems to me to have an NBA body. Besides Blue, I think Jamil also has a chance. Knowing you guys, you are already working on this "why" article.  Thanks

[Jay Bee]

So, not to start a flame war, but to start a flame war, Brian Butch (7) is one of the few top 9 who did not get drafted.  Can you explain why he and Krabbenhoft (29) didn't get the call in numbers while Stiemsma and Leuer did?  How does Dekker look at 13?  Or Steve Taylor as #1 out of Illinois but down the list on RSCI?  It seems RSCI is a very accurate predictor so trying to understand the outliers.

I think of the little I have seen Dekker on video, I struggle with that high RSCI.  Taylor, while a bit raw and over shadowed, seems to me to have an NBA body. Besides Blue, I think Jamil also has a chance. Knowing you guys, you are already working on this "why" article.  Thanks

I find these questions and comments to be fair and reasonable.

[Benny B]

So, not to start a flame war, but to start a flame war, Brian Butch (7) is one of the few top 9 who did not get drafted.  Can you explain why he and Krabbenhoft (29) didn't get the call in numbers while Stiemsma and Leuer did?  How does Dekker look at 13?  Or Steve Taylor as #1 out of Illinois but down the list on RSCI?  It seems RSCI is a very accurate predictor so trying to understand the outliers.

I think of the little I have seen Dekker on video, I struggle with that high RSCI.  Taylor, while a bit raw and over shadowed, seems to me to have an NBA body. Besides Blue, I think Jamil also has a chance. Knowing you guys, you are already working on this "why" article.  Thanks

Maybe it's a false correlation, but every one of the names you mentioned as potential outliers hail from Wisconsin, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Wisconsin & Wisconsin.

A lot of people give credit to Bo Ryan for finding "diamonds in the rough," but I think it's much more likely that the recruiting services don't put one-tenth of the time into the upper-Midwest than they do Texas, Maryland/DC, New York, etc., a hypothesis that holds up when considering the fact that Bo's had more than his share of "flameouts" (i.e. players who didn't perform nearly to their ranking), too.

IOW - If the recruiting services spent as much time reviewing the upper-Midwest, then all of these guys would have potentially been rated more accurately (and some possibly wouldn't have played at UW as a result).

[bamamarquettefan]

great comments, and this might serve as a baseline to look at those kind of things.  Now that we have a record of just under half of 10 to 30 RSCI guys making the NBA, if we broke out just the Wisconsin, Upper Midwest players within that category and found that 70 percent of them were making it, and then half of the 41 to 70 were or something like that, then it would be clear the regions players were being rated too low.

My general impression is that Bo has a great system that works for the players he recruits, but neither the system or Bo's recruits are NBA-bound as often.  I haven't researched that, but remember I did another breakdown a few weeks back and the Big Ten had by far the fewest NBA minutes of any BCS conference, so they are putting great college teams on the floor BUT not producing NBA players nearly as well as any of the other 5 major conferences.

[DomJamesToTheBasket]

A lot of people give credit to Bo Ryan for finding "diamonds in the rough," but I think it's much more likely that the recruiting services don't put one-tenth of the time into the upper-Midwest than they do Texas, Maryland/DC, New York, etc., a hypothesis that holds up when considering the fact that Bo's had more than his share of "flameouts" (i.e. players who didn't perform nearly to their ranking), too.

IOW - If the recruiting services spent as much time reviewing the upper-Midwest, then all of these guys would have potentially been rated more accurately (and some possibly wouldn't have played at UW as a result).

Totally agree and would add that IMO "turning non-prospects into NBA players" by Buzz falls into this category as well.  Yes,  Buzz and the staff have done a fantastic job developing guys,  but they were ALL vastly underrated.  Crowder was JUCO POY.  Jimmy was a full year younger than his class and was an All-American his 1st year in JUCO.  DJO was an All-American his 1st year in Juco as well.  All were underrated and would have probably excelled anywhere (to varying degrees).  I will say Davante was a "diamond in the rough" due to his conditioning, but he was also the best center in the state of Virginia and put up monster numbers.

So maybe it's less "turning non-prospects" into NBA players and more recognizing who is underrated.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The B1G finding is interesting...in the last 23 years, that conference has had one national champion.  Yet, every year preseason, they have 3-4 teams in the Top 10. I think their style of play hasn't evolved as much for today's NBA game. With IU as #1, it will be an interesting year to see how they rack up to expectations.  I think Crean's more uptempo play that he brought with him, will allow IU to be more adaptable, and Zeller is a big who can run the floor as well as a 5 who can be active within his pro weave offense.  This will be a busy the year for the Crean Haters vs. Lovers--although I am stunned  UL is not the consensus #1 as a F4/BET Champ team that returns so much vs. a 5th place B1G/S16 team.

[bamamarquettefan]

That will be interesting.  I have iu no. 1 and Louisville number 2 in www.valueaddbasketball.com, but certainly could see lville.  Zeller just looks like by far the best returning player for poy to tip the balance - but sullinger did last year and none of us knew his back would act up and Anthony Davis would be so dominant, so websill see.