68% chance of beating BYU?

[rocky_warrior]

That's Ken Pomeroy's calculation, he has MU with an 80-75 W.  FWIW, he has their defense only one spot below Marquette's (#22 vs #21) but their offense not nearly as efficient (#107 vs #26)

[StillWarriors]

I would've expected a bit higher for a 3-14 matchup, which may make sense given the previous indications BYU more likely should have been a 12 or so.

How does the 68% compare to the other 3-14 games?

[jsglow]

Thanks Rock.  I really think we can shut them down and blitz them with transition points off forced turnovers.  I think back to our two recent losses.  Both Cincy and Louisville played with an intensity that we couldn't match.  I simply can't see BYU being able to do that.

[rocky_warrior]

How does the 68% compare to the other 3-14 games?

Good Question...turns out we've got the second best (in favor of the good guys) 3/14 matchup...
73% Baylor 75-68 W over S Dakota St
68% Marquette 80-75 W over BYU
66% FSU 68-64 W over St Bonaventure
59% Georgetown 68-66 W over Belmont

[StillWarriors]

Interesting. Thanks.

[NavinRJohnson]

Well, those percentages would seem to suggest that 1 of the 4 is likely to go down.

[Dawson Rental]

Thanks Rock.  I really think we can shut them down and blitz them with transition points off forced turnovers.  I think back to our two recent losses.  Both Cincy and Louisville played with an intensity that we couldn't match.  I simply can't see BYU being able to do that.

Unfortunately, that's exactly what Iona did to them in building a 25 point first half lead.  BYU then righted the ship and came back.  I'm really concerned that Iona may have been the perfect practice game for any team to learn how to deal with our pressure.  We have Davante which gives us a dimension that Iona didn't have, but we've probably lost the chance to build a quick early lead on BYU.  I expect to see them hustling back on defense from the get go and throwing a two-three zone at us from the start to slow us down.  We're a better team than Iona, but BYU is far better prepared for us then they would have been without the Iona tuneup.

[Dawson Rental]

Well, those percentages would seem to suggest that 1 of the 4 is likely to go down.

Which would seem to be in line with what typically happens.

[MU B2002]

 I expect to see them hustling back on defense from the get go and throwing a two-three zone at us from the start to slow us down.  We're a better team than Iona, but BYU is far better prepared for us then they would have been without the Iona tuneup.

They can hustle all they want.  I just don't believe they are fast enough to do that for 40 minutes. We also have shown that we know how to attack the 2-3 zone.(Sometimes) 

[MUMac]

Unfortunately, that's exactly what Iona did to them in building a 25 point first half lead.  BYU then righted the ship and came back.  I'm really concerned that Iona may have been the perfect practice game for any team to learn how to deal with our pressure.  We have Davante which gives us a dimension that Iona didn't have, but we've probably lost the chance to build a quick early lead on BYU.  I expect to see them hustling back on defense from the get go and throwing a two-three zone at us from the start to slow us down.  We're a better team than Iona, but BYU is far better prepared for us then they would have been without the Iona tuneup.

I thought Iona looked helter skelter on offense and when it finally came down to playing basketball, they could not adjust.  they hit 68% to get that lead.  Everyone knew they could not maintain that.  What they did not do, that MU does VERY well, is attack the lane. 

BYU may have been prepared for MU's speed by playing Iona, but definitely not MU's style.

[tower912]

I think BYU zones us.   Fortunately, MU has seen enough zones, and better ones, to know how to attack it. 

[NavinRJohnson]

I realize it is not the same, but to put some perspective around it...if BYU was coming to play a game at the BC in Mid-December, would anyone expect anything but a win, and likely a comfortable win? The better team doesn't always win, but they usually do.

[paulpogo]

Anyone see an actual line for the game yet?

[Pakuni]

Good Question...turns out we've got the second best (in favor of the good guys) 3/14 matchup...
73% Baylor 75-68 W over S Dakota St
68% Marquette 80-75 W over BYU
66% FSU 68-64 W over St Bonaventure
59% Georgetown 68-66 W over Belmont

If those were the lines in Vegas, I'd be betting big on the chalk and end up a very happy man.

[Badgerhater]

Iona didn't have DJO and Jae.

[6Under20]

Line in the paper this morning said MU giving 4.  We should cover.

[lab_warrior]

Iona didn't have DJO and Jae.

+1

Or Davante and Jamil to score down low.  Or Blue and DWilson to shut down their best perimeter scorers.  Or anyone like Mayo coming off the bench.

[MDMU04]

I think BYU zones us.   Fortunately, MU has seen enough zones, and better ones, to know how to attack it. 

I agree completely.

MU managed to hang pretty tough against Syracuse in their gym.  I'll take my chances against BYU's zone over SU's 2-3 any day of the week.

If BYU wants to play zone, which I suspect they may, there could be an opportunity to get BYU into some foul trouble.

[Pakuni]

I agree completely.

MU managed to hang pretty tough against Syracuse in their gym.  I'll take my chances against BYU's zone over SU's 2-3 any day of the week.

If BYU wants to play zone, which I suspect they may, there could be an opportunity to get BYU into some foul trouble.

Probably doesn't hurt that BYU won't have Fab Melo protecting the center of their zone.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Anyone see an actual line for the game yet?

Vegas APP on my phone says MU giving 5.5.