[Cracked Sidewalks] Defense and Projections

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Defense and Projections

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

Last year, in early January, I wrote an article wondering if Defense was Marquette's Achilles Heel.  It's worth re-reading, but here is an update.

Teams that are elite have good defenses.  In particular, over the past five years, here are the average defensive rankings of teams at each level of the NCAA tourney.

• Won their first game (#34)
• Sweet Sixteen (#26)
• Elite Eight (#20)
• Final Four (#17)

It was the exception rather than the norm for a team like Marquette (defensive rank of #61) to make the Sweet Sixteen last year.  In fact, over the last five years, only twelve teams with a defensive rank worse than 50 (15% of teams) make the Sweet Sixteen.  Only three teams with a defensive rank worse than 50 made the Elite Eight (8%), and one of them was VCU!  It happens, but the odds are against you.  This was a giant concern for Buzz's teams, which had never been better than a defensive rank of 50 over three years.  Tangent - it was a total freak that the 2003 team (defensive rank of #101) made the Final Four... helps that they were #1 offensively.
Not all aspects of defense are the same.  In particular, defensive eFG% is twice as important as forcing turnovers, three times as important as preventing offensive rebounds, and fourteen times more important than not letting your opponent get to the free throw line.  Marquette's defense under Buzz has been weakest in the most important area (eFG%) and strongest in the least important area (free throw rate)
Last night's result against South Florida was the best Big East defensive game in Buzz's tenure.  Marquette held the Bulls to 0.71 ppp on 40% eFG and a turnover rate of 37%.  More importantly, although this was a great result defensively, it wasn't a particularly unique result this year.  Here's where things currently stand defensively for Marquette, in comparison to the last three years.  




Marquette has turned their defense into the #24 overall unit.  In other words, MU's defense is playing somewhere between the average Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight defense for the first time under Buzz.  There's also a marked difference in the defensive priorities, with our strengths now in the two most important aspects of defense.  Note that at this time last year, Marquette's defense was ranked #70.  Finally, as Pudner wrote a week ago, the defense is ranked higher than the offense for the first time under Buzz.  
Should expectations be high for the remainder of the season?  Consider this, according to the Pomeroy projections (subscription required - but seriously, it's the best value on the Internets).

• Marquette has about a 93% chance of finishing with 11+ wins (5-5 down the stretch)
• About an 80% of finishing with 12+ wins (6-4)
• ~50% of finishing with 13+ wins
• and for you real optimists, about a 20% of finishing with 14 wins or more

A winnable road opportunity awaits this weekend at Villanova.  Saturday's game will prove an additional marker of how good Marquette can be this season, both overall and defensively.  Here's to continued defensive success for the rest of the season and beyond.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/defense-and-projections.html

[tower912]

Good stuff.  And they are doing it without Otule.  In your opinion, why the difference?    From my perspective, it looks like the guards are doing a better job of not getting beat off of the dribble and we are doing an excellent job of double teaming the low post.     We are still pressuring 30 ft from the hoop, but it looks like the team has a better understanding of the help and rotations.   

[LloydMooresLegs]

Agreed on help D.  Much more rare that 1) their point beats our guy off the dribble and either drives and kicks out to the spot left open by the help D (due to good rotation) for uncontested three, or 2) a feed to a solid post player results in an easy one on one bucket, because our guys rotate to the right spot to help and make it extremely difficult for the post player to do anything other than pass it back out.

[jesmu84]

I love statistics because they're objective and factual (most of the time).

Now for a related subjective question:

Why the difference/improvement in the defense?

I ask because this is something we'd like to further improve upon or at least maintain. Is the the players maturing/better freshman? Is it a tweak to Buzz's defensive philosophy? Is it worse competition? Is it luck? Is it a combination?

Anyone have better bball insight than my crappy knowledge?

[UticaBusBarn]

This fan does not have any particular insight, but will offer a series of considerations.

1. The Otule defense was "better" in the traditional sense. The present defense, because of certain compensations/adjustments Coach Williams has had to devise is more "confusing" and dangerous for other teams because it can be 100 percent fast and switchable. (Plus, it could be that Coach Williams is a better small than big team coach, as the midget team of two years seems to attest.)

2. Gardner, who according to Coach Williams, needs to lose 30 pounds and learn to play ball screen defense, actually adds to the defense in two ways. One, he draws fouls, which allows the defense to set-up (no transition for the other team). Two, in drawing fouls, he has put other bigs and "real" bigs on the bench and out of play early in the game, setting-up better match-ups/defense for the Warriors.

3. Gardner, has also changed the more, or less, two dimensional pre-Outle offense (transition and slash to the basket), to a more complex and complete offense (transition, slash to the basket, into the post, scoring from the post, etc.), particularly when the other side has some foul trouble.

4. Crowder, bad shoot selection and all, seems to be playing with an intensity and will that is hard to even characterize. Steals here, rebounds there, imprinting the word "Wilson" on opponents foreheads with his blocks, getting position under the boards, hitting the open man, muscling opponents aside, etc.

5. There is more dept, speed and talent on this Warrior team than any recent team. The team is starting to fit the vision of what Coach Williams believes his team should be ... fast, long, switchable, hard working, and totally committed.

6. Finally, Coach Wiliams, for all the data he carries in his head, and all the data he digests before breakfast, is, in reality, a trial and error, "let's see if this works", type of coach, who tends, as did Coach Raymonds, to stick to some basic concepts (transition, paint touches, transition, steals, transition, and getting fouled, for instance). As a result, the Warriors have finished the season strong the last two years, and it would appear to be the case (fingers crossed) this year.

Regardless, defense, or no defense, these last few years have been great fun to watch!

[RJax55]

Looks to me that MU has backed off a bit on the ball pressure up top. Instead of extending the pressure way beyond the 3-point line, it seems our guards are now picking up right at the line.

Also, J. Wilson is really doing a nice job on the defensive end. He's holding his position on the block, drawing charges, blocking shots and hedging the screen extremely well. 

[Silkk the Shaka]

Does this mean Buzz fixed the f*cking defense?

[Henry Sugar]

Does this mean Buzz fixed the f*cking defense?

finally!