MU and Bigs

[RJax55]

However, on the flip side Gardner and Wilson are benefiting greatly by the increased responsibility. It hurts in the short run, but we will see the benefit of this next year.

I agree with this, especially on Gardner. I'm excited to watch him develop and hope he can continue to progress as the season goes along.

[4everwarriors]

Is this gonna be the season folks claim we would've been a Final Four team with a healthy Otule like they did when DJ broke his foot?

[g0lden3agle]

Is this gonna be the season folks claim we would've been a Final Four team with a healthy Otule like they did when DJ broke his foot?

I wouldn't go final four, but I'd say a legitimate repeat to get to the second weekend and at least be competitive in our sweet 16 match up.

[Danny Noonan]

Is this gonna be the season folks claim we would've been a Final Four team with a healthy Otule like they did when DJ broke his foot?

I wouldn't go final four, but I'd say a legitimate repeat to get to the second weekend and at least be competitive in our sweet 16 match up.

Nice one 4ever as it made me laugh but MU defintitely misses Otule this year but camparing his injury to the loss of DJ in '09 is apples and oranges. I still think that team had a solid chance to make a run to the FF but we'll never know.

[Golden Avalanche]

He was also blocking shots at a level only bettered by Melo, Drummond, and Dieng, the Big East's premier defensive centers.  Not that that should be considered in the evaluation or anything.

Plus we're starved for height and at 6' 11" he's our only player over 6' 8".  Not that that should be considered in the evaluation or anything.

We also have to play Jamil Wilson, a 3/4 switchable at center for 15-20 mpg now.  Not that that should be considered in the evaluation or anything. 

I love numbers and appreciate Sugar's evaluations, but hypothesis testing through regressions can't explain everything in basketball or life.

Wow. A 6'11' guy blocking 1.5/game. That's not that impressive. It's pretty much what you'd expect, especially since it mostly came against second-rate opposition in the non-con schedule.

Also, Otule doesn't even play half of the game. Assuming he was healthy, and his playing time was handled the same way by Buzz, what's the excuse for the other 23 minutes he's not on the court when MU is beaten?

You should also consider MU is a decidedly average rebounding team. We have been the last 72 seasons. Otule's played more then half the games this season so you can't only chalk up that terrible standing to his injury.

I like Otule. I think he's marginally improved in his time at MU. He is a serviceable 5 which is all we typically need. But for the many people here to claim that his absence is a large factor in MU's swoon is misplaced.

[Silkk the Shaka]

So your point is that regression analysis has limitations?  Not disputing that.

Because what I thought you were saying was, "I know that right now there's no proof of a relationship between Otule being gone and Marquette playing worse, but I believe it to be true even though the numbers don't agree with me".

I'm saying that we started playing taller more athletic teams.  Naturally, you're going to miss your starting 6' 11" center in those scenarios.  I get that you love Gardner.  I love Gardner too.  I'm not making an either/or argument.  I want both.  Neither plays the whole game, but when both can man the 5 we are a better team.  No one has to play out of position in that case.  We can't play a single guy over 6' 8" now.  When Gardner sits, our center is now a 6' 7" switchable.  That's not a recipe for success in the Big East.  We look a lot more like the 2009-2010 team on defense now except we lack their ability to bomb it from three.  Why is it even debatable that we're better with Otule?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Wow. A 6'11' guy blocking 1.5/game. That's not that impressive. It's pretty much what you'd expect, especially since it mostly came against second-rate opposition in the non-con schedule.

Also, Otule doesn't even play half of the game. Assuming he was healthy, and his playing time was handled the same way by Buzz, what's the excuse for the other 23 minutes he's not on the court when MU is beaten?

You should also consider MU is a decidedly average rebounding team. We have been the last 72 seasons. Otule's played more then half the games this season so you can't only chalk up that terrible standing to his injury.

I like Otule. I think he's marginally improved in his time at MU. He is a serviceable 5 which is all we typically need. But for the many people here to claim that his absence is a large factor in MU's swoon is misplaced.

Doesn't even play half the game?  Against the only two legit teams we played in the non-con he got 27 mpg.  We have also changed the way we play defensively since he's been gone.  We weren't doubling down on the post when he was here.  Now we have to out of necessity.  A couple ball reversals and there's a wide open layup or three.  And you're right, he's a serviceable slightly above average Big East 5, which is all this team needs.  I'm not trying to make the dude out to be Superman.  I'm just saying we need 40 minutes of center play to reach our potential.  How is than an outlandish statement?  Name one team that challenged for a Big East title or made a deep tournament run without 40 minutes of solid center play?  You could say Villanova in '08-'09 but they had ridiculous guard play, which we don't.  We were a pretty well-balanced team this year with Otule/Gardner manning the 5.  Now we aren't.  Where is the argument against that?

[tower912]

I'm surprised by Henry's numbers.  They don't agree with the eyeball test, particularly on defense,  though with the competition being tougher, I can accept the possibility the eyeball test isn't accurate.   

[Henry Sugar]

I'm saying that we started playing taller more athletic teams.  Naturally, you're going to miss your starting 6' 11" center in those scenarios.  I get that you love Gardner.  I love Gardner too.  I'm not making an either/or argument.  I want both.  Neither plays the whole game, but when both can man the 5 we are a better team.  No one has to play out of position in that case.  We can't play a single guy over 6' 8" now.  When Gardner sits, our center is now a 6' 7" switchable.  That's not a recipe for success in the Big East.  We look a lot more like the 2009-2010 team on defense now except we lack their ability to bomb it from three.  Why is it even debatable that we're better with Otule?

I'm not discussing Gardner.  Nor am I disputing that we are a better team with Otule.  

The question was whether our offensive and defensive efficiencies were worse without Otule.  I answered that I do not see a statistically significant relationship between the absence of Otule and the decline in our efficiencies, when you consider the strength of our opponents.

Why does this matter?

Because I think that Otule has been chalked up as a panacea to cure all ills.  People want to say, "oh man, if only we had Otule none of this would be happening".  However, I believe there are more fundamental problems and getting Otule back isn't going to fix those issues.  

In particular, Buzz needs to fix the f*cking defense.

[Hoopaloop]

Is this gonna be the season folks claim we would've been a Final Four team with a healthy Otule like they did when DJ broke his foot?

MU had a Final Four type team the year DJ broke his foot.  The Big East was the best in college basketball history and our Warriors were right there going into the final five games.  What a team and league that was.  A very special team with three NBA players on it.  What a shame.

[RJax55]

Because I think that Otule has been chalked up as a panacea to cure all ills.  People want to say, "oh man, if only we had Otule none of this would be happening".  However, I believe there are more fundamental problems and getting Otule back isn't going to fix those issues.  

In particular, Buzz needs to fix the f*cking defense.

+1

The defense was poor last year and Otule played in every game.

[Golden Avalanche]

Doesn't even play half the game?  Against the only two legit teams we played in the non-con he got 27 mpg.  We have also changed the way we play defensively since he's been gone.  We weren't doubling down on the post when he was here.  Now we have to out of necessity.  A couple ball reversals and there's a wide open layup or three.  And you're right, he's a serviceable slightly above average Big East 5, which is all this team needs.  I'm not trying to make the dude out to be Superman.  I'm just saying we need 40 minutes of center play to reach our potential.  How is than an outlandish statement?  Name one team that challenged for a Big East title or made a deep tournament run without 40 minutes of solid center play?  You could say Villanova in '08-'09 but they had ridiculous guard play, which we don't.  We were a pretty well-balanced team this year with Otule/Gardner manning the 5.  Now we aren't.  Where is the argument against that?

He only played against one legit team in Wisconsin.

Color me a crank, but I think we can overcome not having a serviceable 5. Hell, 3/4 of the last guy's teams didn't even have a serviceable 5 when everyone was healthy. Besides, when Otule has been healthy like last season, the defense was still suspect whether we were allowed to play straight up post or double down or dive wildly in the hopes of stealing the ball or whatever crazy scheme was developed.

MU has done very well in the recent past playing hybrid 5s. I just don't see the claim that suddenly Buzz' gameplan has to be completely redrawn because an oft-injured, 5th option center is not available due to absence therefore the entire balance of the team is so disrupted they can be excused for their lack of smart play.