[Cracked Sidewalks] An early look at NCAA possibilities.

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

An early look at NCAA possibilities.

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Steve Susina)

As the message boards are starting to buzz with talk about how many bids the Big East teams may receive, it is interesting to note this observation:

Since expansion in 2006, there have been zero Big East teams with more than four non-conference losses that were subsequently invited to the NCAA tournament.

[/b][/i]Bad news for the league is that we have five conference teams that have already tallied five non-con losses: Notre Dame, Villanova, Rutgers, South Florida and St. Johns. If history is any indication, these teams are likely out of the race for an NCAA bid. And with the possible exception of Rutgers' win over Florida--there isn't much evidence to date that one can use to mount a counter-argument.

Strip away the reputation of Villanova and Notre Dame based on prior Big East success and you find that there are only 3 wins over current RPI* top 100 teams: the aforementioned Rutgers upset of Florida, USF's win over #65 Cleveland State and St. Johns win over #99 Lehigh. VU and ND have a combined zero non-conference victories over a current top 100 RPI opponent.

In the past, the league separated itself into a handful of elite teams, and handful of laggards, and bunch of teams in the middle fighting for fan NCAA bid.  It appears the same is happening this year as well.

In:  UConn, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse

Some have questioned whether UL belongs up here, but they have more top 50 RPI wins than anyone in the league.  UConn has not been truly tested yet (and even suffered an upset at the hand of UCF). Some might question MU given the losses to Vanderbilt and LSU. Nonetheless, there seems to be consensus based on non-conference play that these are the top five teams in the conference, and Syracuse stands alone as the team to beat.

This is not to say that these teams can't play their way out of the tournament.  However, each of them have the talent and have demonstrated a level of play which separates them from the rest of the league.
Bubble:  Pitt, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, West Virginia
Not all four of these teams will make the tournament.  Most likely, two of them, perhaps with a greater chance of three making it (8 total bids) than one (6 total bids).  But each of them still has some work to do.

• Pittsburgh: Ordinarily, one would be writing off the tournament possibilities for a team with the body of work that Pitt has put forth to date.  However, as long as Tray Woodall has a chance to return, the Panthers remain alive if they put together some strong wins once he returns.
• Cincinnati: The Bearcats haven't distinguished themselves in non-conference play (leading to imponderables like: which is uglier--the brawl against Xavier or the loss to Presbyterian?).  UC has a chance to separate themselves from the bottom over the next two weeks.  3 of their next four games are at home against ND, Villanova and St. Johns.
• Seton Hall is the 2012 version of 2011 Cincinnati. Nice non-conference record, but they will remain suspect until they beat someone of note.  The blowout loss to Syracuse doesn't do it, but the blowout win over WVU might be an indication that SHU is at the head of the middle of the pack.  However, questions of legitimacy will dog the Pirates unless they pull an upset over Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, UConn or Georgetown.
• West Virginia gives you just enough good (wins over K-State, Missouri State and Miami)  to think they're bordering on the upper-division.  But they lost their two best chances for a quality non-con win losing to Mississippi State and Baylor, and the loss to Seton Hall puts them at an early disadvantage in the middle.  

Out:  Notre Dame, Villanova, Rutgers, USF, St. Johns, Providence, DePaul
Some will argue that ND or Villanova still have a chance to make the tournament despite 5 non-conference losses.  However, history suggests that if a team hasn't won in non-conference play, its a pretty good indication that they won't be able to win in Big East play either. If a team can't beat teams like Georgia, Maryland, St. Louis or St. Joseph's, they're going to have a hard time against WVU or Cincinnati (not to mention Marquette, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown or Louisville).  
More importantly, aside from Rutgers, none of these teams have compelling non-conference victories that would cause the committee to fight for them come Selection Sunday.  Absent multiple upsets of the top teams in the league, one simply can't make the case for ND, VIllanova, and to a lesser extent PC, DePaul, St. Johns, Rutgers or USF).

*RPI source: Statsheet.com

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/early-look-at-ncaa-possibilities.html

[bilsu]

MU belongs with the bubble teams.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

MU belongs with the bubble teams.

hahaha. MU could go .500 in the Big East and virtually be a lock for the tournament.

[CTWarrior]

hahaha. MU could go .500 in the Big East and virtually be a lock for the tournament.

Don't think so this year.  I think 11-7 required for lock status.  Big East is down this year.  Wins over the bottom 7 from the original (excellent) post aren't going to impress anybody.  Go 9-9 with a 7-1 or 6-2 against those teams (therefore 2-8 or 3-7 vs the better teams) and we are most certainly looking at NIT, with our only non-con win against an NCAA tournament caliber team being Wisconsin.

[Hards Alumni]

MU belongs with the bubble teams.

Where do you come up with half the stuff you say man?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Is the Big East down or is there a changing of the guard?  The Hall is vastly improved, Rutgers was able to beat Florida, DePaul is more competitive.  Pitt and Nova need to turn it around.  Notre Dame and UCONN will be developing as the season goes on.  Cinci has turned the fight adversity into a determination and seem to be on a roll.  Cuse will run away with the BE, Gtown is solid, and UL is deep, play great D and Blackshear is returning soon.  

It looks like the Pac 12 is way down, is the BIG deep, the ACC is underachieving so far, SEC and B12 look very solid.  No way 10-8 in the BE is a bubble team, though.

[brewcity77]

Don't think so this year.  I think 11-7 required for lock status.  Big East is down this year.  Wins over the bottom 7 from the original (excellent) post aren't going to impress anybody.  Go 9-9 with a 7-1 or 6-2 against those teams (therefore 2-8 or 3-7 vs the better teams) and we are most certainly looking at NIT, with our only non-con win against an NCAA tournament caliber team being Wisconsin.

SEC teams with a .500 conference record were in last year. The 68-team field may not seem like a big change, but it's a lot easier to get in. My guess is that 9-9 and in the top half of the league with our non-con will be enough to get us in.

[tower912]

.500 in the Beast gets us to 20-11.   Somebody thinks that won't get in?    Put down the crack pipe. 

[CTWarrior]

SEC teams with a .500 conference record were in last year. The 68-team field may not seem like a big change, but it's a lot easier to get in. My guess is that 9-9 and in the top half of the league with our non-con will be enough to get us in.

We were 9-9 a year ago in a much stronger Big East and were clearly on the bubble (fortunately on the right side).  The committee doesn't look at teams per conference, they look at who you beat.  If we go 9-9 with only 2 or 3 wins against NCAA tournament quality Big East teams plus Wisconsin, that is not a strong resume.  10 wins (plus one in BET) probably gets us in, but I'm still thinking 11 needed for lock status.

[tower912]

20-11, and 9-9 in the BEast, and the committee is going to be able to find 35 better at-large teams?    C'mon, man.   

[madtownwarrior]

going .500 in conference may be the issue actually - I have them at 10 - 8 but could easily swing to 8 - 10 or 12 - 6 with breaks going the wrong or right ways...

hahaha. MU could go .500 in the Big East and virtually be a lock for the tournament.

[brewcity77]

Everyone likes to say the SC doesn't look at conference, but I don't believe it. With the expanded bids, it's a lot easier to make the Dance provided you go .500 in conference with a solid non-con. With Norfolk State projecting as top-100 RPI, that gives us 5 non-con top-100 wins and only 3 sub-200 RPI drains. If we only win the games Pomeroy has us at 70%+ on, we go 9-9 with another 3 quality wins.

There is no way there will be 35 teams with better resumes than that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Don't think so this year.  I think 11-7 required for lock status.  Big East is down this year.  Wins over the bottom 7 from the original (excellent) post aren't going to impress anybody.  Go 9-9 with a 7-1 or 6-2 against those teams (therefore 2-8 or 3-7 vs the better teams) and we are most certainly looking at NIT, with our only non-con win against an NCAA tournament caliber team being Wisconsin.

I disagree. I think at 9-9 MU is a lock. Just look at last season...we got in at 9-9 without one good out of conference win. Every chance we had to beat a good team out of conference, we lost. If MU goes .500, and I think they'll do better by the way, they'll safely make the big dance.

[77ncaachamps]

I disagree. I think at 9-9 MU is a lock. Just look at last season...we got in at 9-9 without one good out of conference win. Every chance we had to beat a good team out of conference, we lost. If MU goes .500, and I think they'll do better by the way, they'll safely make the big dance.

Well, if Wisconsin and Washington keep sucking, you can drop them from our OOC "quality" wins.

[tower912]

They will be good enough wins.   I think we do better than 9-9, but .500 in conference will be enough. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Well, if Wisconsin and Washington keep sucking, you can drop them from our OOC "quality" wins.

I am no Wisconsin fan, but they'll be right there in the end. They'll finish the regular season in the top 25 and receive a nice seed to the dance.

I have only watched Washington twice, but they were very impressive against us. I watch a ton of college hoops, and that showing was quite impressive. They'll put up a nice record in a very down PAC-12, and also make the dance.

Any way you shake it, MU is in a much better position now than they were a year ago. I am not at all concerned with making the tournament at this point. I will not be at all concerned if we drop our next two games, either.

[hoyasincebirth]

Still think the BE gets between 8-10 teams in. Look at the current RPI:

Syracuse 1
Seton Hall 3
Uconn 5
Georgetown 9
Louisville 11
Marquette 22
WV 24
Pitt 74
Nova 96
Cinci 118
ND 125
Providence 128
USF 135
DePaul 173
St. John's 193
Rutgers 215

I think the 7 teams in the top 25 of the RPI are a lock.

It'll depend on how many of Pitt, Nova, Cinci, and ND can turn things around enough to get a bid. I think at least Pitt and Cinci will.

[bilsu]

I am no Wisconsin fan, but they'll be right there in the end. They'll finish the regular season in the top 25 and receive a nice seed to the dance.

I have only watched Washington twice, but they were very impressive against us. I watch a ton of college hoops, and that showing was quite impressive. They'll put up a nice record in a very down PAC-12, and also make the dance.

Any way you shake it, MU is in a much better position now than they were a year ago. I am not at all concerned with making the tournament at this point. I will not be at all concerned if we drop our next two games, either.

I am not so sure about Wisconsin. They already have two home Big 10 losses. They could end up lossing a lot of games in Big 10, if they continue to shoot poorly from three.