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Author Topic: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread  (Read 3986 times)

jeffreyweee

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2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« on: March 27, 2011, 01:14:23 PM »
Predict the 5 starters and significant bench contributions

Predict the Big East record for MU (An expected value and a 'dream' value.)

Predict how far we go in the tournament (Both expected and dream.)


I'll start:
PG: Cadougan 28-30 mpg Vander/Derrick Wilson 10-12 mpg
SG: DJO 28-30 mpg Vander/Mayo/Jamail 10-12 mpg
SF: Jamil Wilson 25 mpg Juan/Jamail 15 mpg
PF: Eric Williams 12-15 mpg  Jae Crowder 25-28mpg      (Seeing the same idea here as last year to keep Jae out of foul trouble.)
C: Chris Otule 20 mpg    Davante Gardner 20 mpg         (Defense and tip to start the game.)


Breakout years for Vander and E Wil


11-7 year in BE with 13-5 potential.

Expected sweet 16 with Elite 8 potential.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2011, 03:09:01 PM by jeffreyweee »

willie warrior

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2011, 01:31:52 PM »
No way vander has a break out year splitting 20-24 minutes with 3 other guys at two different positions

No way Crowder does not start as a Senior.

Haven't seen the schedule yet, but Buzz better go 11-5 in conference to justify an alleged $2 million per year.
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marquette09

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2011, 01:33:11 PM »

11-5 year in BE with 13-3 potential.


18 games in the BE

Shack

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2011, 01:34:16 PM »
I don't know about starters but I think you'll see a very deep team with 9 guys getting 15+mins every game some way some how.  

Frontcourt:  Gardner, OTule, Wilson, Williams, Crowder
Backcourt:  DJO, Cadougan, Blue, Jones

Odd men out:  Freshman

Biggest concern is PG.

BE record: 10-8
6 Seed in tourney.  

Who knows how far depending on matchups but the Sweet 16 should be the expectation and Elite 8 being the ceiling the next 3 years based on what the known roster is.  

willie warrior

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2011, 01:51:11 PM »
10-8 is about what we averaged past 3 years. Two million per year demands much more; 12-6 minimum, and top 5 in conference.
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brewcity77

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2011, 01:53:10 PM »
Starters

PG: Cadougan 27 mpg
SG: DJO 32 mpg
SF: Wilson 25 mpg
PF: Crowder 30 mpg
C: Otule 18 mpg

Total Starter minutes: 132/200

Bench Players

Blue 24 mpg (1-3)
Gardner 14 mpg (5)
Jones 10 mpg (2-3)
Williams 10 mpg (3-5)
D. Wilson 3 mpg (1)
Anderson 3 mpg (3-4)
Mayo 2 mpg (1-2)
Singleton 2 mpg (1-2)

My expectation is that we generally run 9 deep, with Blue, Gardner, Jones, and Williams being our major bench contributors. Wilson, Anderson, Mayo, and Singleton I expect to actually average more minutes per game but to likely get DNPs in about half their games which will reduce the numbers.

Record

Non-conference: I expect us to go 12-1. Win 3 at the Paradise Jam, beat UW-M, UW-GB, and the 5 unnamed cupcakes at home for 10 wins. Then I am calling for 2-1 in our games at LSU, at Wisconsin, and against Vandy. Not sure which we drop, but I'm guessing we drop one. 13-0 is not impossible, depending on players declaring for our big 3 opponents (cough, Jordan Taylor, cough).

Conference: I think we go 12-6, which should get us the 4 or 5 seed. Best case I see would be 14-4. But with 12-6, I also expect us to go 2-1 in the Big East tournament. Loss in the final or semifinals. That sends us into the NCAA Tournament with an overall record of 26-8 and probably a 3 or 4 seed.

NCAA Tournament: Going again with a 2-1 record, making the Sweet 16, with the Final Four possible based on match-ups. But as a 3 or 4 seed, you are likely coming up against a buzzsaw team in the Sweet 16, so I'm tempering expectations to there.
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HoopsMalone

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2011, 02:17:09 PM »
In general:

1-  Dominate pre-conference against non-cupcakes (sweep the 3 Wisconsin schools, win the relatively easy Thanksgiving Tourney, toss-up against Vandy at home)

2- 18 games in the Big East.  Depends on our mirror games.  I'd go for 11-7.

3-  Final Four of the Big East Tourney

4-  4 seed.  Repeat the Sweet Sixteen, but lose a close one to a 1 seed.

Starters
1- Cadougan
2- DJO
3- Wilson
4- Crowder
5- Otule

Blue/Gardner/Jones/EWill see significant minutes. 
Blue ends up handling it a little more than we think.  D Wilson gets spot minutes to complete Buzz's 9.5 man rotation.

DJO second round pick
Crowder gets a few tryouts and goes D-League rather than International

Aughnanure

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2011, 02:32:27 PM »
Thinking about this made me more concerned about the PG position than I thought I'd be. Could Blue be making PG play a priority in the off season? At least be able to take 6-8 minutes a game?

Most Minutes by Position
5. Gardner/ Otule (Tie)
4. Wilson/ EWill (Tie)
3. Crowder
2. DJO
1. Cadougan

Most Minutes off Bench (in order)
1. Juan Anderson (2-4)
2. Blue (1-3?)
3. Jones (2-4)
4. D Wilson (1)
5. Mayo (2-3)

Big East Record
Expect: 11-7 (top 6)
Dream: 14-4 (top 2)

NCAA Tournament

Expect: Sweet 16
Dream:  Final Four
« Last Edit: March 27, 2011, 03:04:53 PM by Aughnanure »
“All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act out their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible.” - T.E. Lawrence

Aughnanure

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2011, 02:44:40 PM »
10-8 is about what we averaged past 3 years. Two million per year demands much more; 12-6 minimum, and top 5 in conference.

Stop putting arbitrary expectations on the team. Every year of college basketball is different and fluid, and our league is too deep and talented to come in every year thinking that if we aren't in the top 5 then it is a failure. Its just stupid in a league with this many teams with such potential every year. Should we expect to achieve top 8 finishes every year, and a top 4 finish once every 3-4 years? I think that is much more realistic.

Marquette, and other basketball-only schools, will always have to overpay to keep our coach...and guess what? A lot of teams are overpaying their coach as well ($2 million is about what one should expect tp keep your coach if other teams are wanting him).
“All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act out their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible.” - T.E. Lawrence

DCWarriors04

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2011, 02:49:39 PM »
Starters
PG: Cadougan
SG: DJO
SF: Jamil Wilson
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Chris Otule begins the season as our starter, but I can see Gardner becoming the starter mid way through the BEast season...Otule is good, but Gardner has a lot of potential and will become very consistent as the season progresses.

Off the bench I think E Will, Vander, and Gardner will show a lot of development between this year and next. I also think we will see some significant contributions from our freshman...expect Mayo and Anderson to be big contributors.

Out of Conference Next year
I think we win the Paradise Jam tournament
LSU will be tough, but I think we win this for a key non conference road win
Despite being at home, I think Vandy is a toss up
Bucky is always tough at home, but if Jordan Taylor leaves I think winning in Madison will be possible.

Conference
12-6 or 13-5 and top 4 in the BEast. If things go our way with a young and hungry team 14-4 or 15-3 and a BEast Conference Championship is very possible.

BEast Tournament
Semi-Finals or an appearance in the Finals is possible.

NCAA Tournament
All depends on match ups, but Sweet 16 or Elite 8 is very possible

Ari Gold

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2011, 03:02:34 PM »
I think I'm in the same boat as virtually every other person here.
Starers Come big east time will be (baring injury)
PG: Cadougan
SG: DJO
SF: Jamil Wilson
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Chris Otule
Prediction: EWill, Gardner, Blue and Jones will all start at least one non-conference game. Can't hurt to give those guys significant time during the non-con cupcakes. I think I'm being extra optimistic there. Buzz doesn't seem like the type that'll do that

I think we'll drop 2 games in the non-con season
We'll win 11+ games in conference. As many as 14.

Post season:
two or three wins in the BET seems to be expected, but it depends on where we start that tournament. Bold prediction puts us in the finals.
A Sweet 16 seems like a good place to end up in the NCAA, I certainly hope we werent spoiled this year. Bold prediction is a final 4

Coleman

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2011, 03:04:54 PM »

Haven't seen the schedule yet, but Buzz better go 11-5 in conference to justify an alleged $2 million per year.

11-7, yes.

Coleman

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2011, 03:09:52 PM »
My heart wants to go bolder but this is what my brain says...

2 losses in the non-con.

11-7 in Big East.

1-1 in BET

Sweet 16.

willie warrior

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2011, 03:44:02 PM »
Stop putting arbitrary expectations on the team. Every year of college basketball is different and fluid, and our league is too deep and talented to come in every year thinking that if we aren't in the top 5 then it is a failure. Its just stupid in a league with this many teams with such potential every year. Should we expect to achieve top 8 finishes every year, and a top 4 finish once every 3-4 years? I think that is much more realistic.

Marquette, and other basketball-only schools, will always have to overpay to keep our coach...and guess what? A lot of teams are overpaying their coach as well ($2 million is about what one should expect tp keep your coach if other teams are wanting him).
You set your expectations, and I will set mine!
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mklenn

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2011, 04:59:28 PM »
Most Minutes off Bench (in order)
1. Juan Anderson (2-4)
2. Blue (1-3?)
3. Jones (2-4)
4. D Wilson (1)
5. Mayo (2-3)

You really think Juan Anderson is going to play more than Blue, Jones, and Singleton (who you didn't include)? No way that happens. Since you have O'tule/Gardner splitting and EWILL/Wilson/Crowder already in your regulars, Anderson as the top sub means our first 3 guys off the bench will be bigs? Again, no way.

We all need to cool our expectations for Juan Anderson and freshmen in general. The reason people are big critics of Vander is that expectations were too high. Whether this was because of his ranking or the de-commit from Madison I don't think it matters. Harrison Barnes was TERRIBLE at the beginning of the season and he was the #1 recruit. Josh Shelby and Brandon Knight have also been disappointments. Wouldn't you rather have a freshman come in and totally surprise the way Devante did?

We should be better next year, get a single bye in the BE tourney and be well positioned for another Sweet Sixteen run but it all comes down to match ups so way too tough to call how far we will advance next year. I do think we should be in the preseason top 25 next year.

Aughnanure

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2011, 11:12:17 AM »
You really think Juan Anderson is going to play more than Blue, Jones, and Singleton (who you didn't include)? No way that happens. Since you have O'tule/Gardner splitting and EWILL/Wilson/Crowder already in your regulars, Anderson as the top sub means our first 3 guys off the bench will be bigs? Again, no way.

We all need to cool our expectations for Juan Anderson and freshmen in general. The reason people are big critics of Vander is that expectations were too high. Whether this was because of his ranking or the de-commit from Madison I don't think it matters. Harrison Barnes was TERRIBLE at the beginning of the season and he was the #1 recruit. Josh Shelby and Brandon Knight have also been disappointments. Wouldn't you rather have a freshman come in and totally surprise the way Devante did?

We should be better next year, get a single bye in the BE tourney and be well positioned for another Sweet Sixteen run but it all comes down to match ups so way too tough to call how far we will advance next year. I do think we should be in the preseason top 25 next year.

I completely understand your criticism, and how we shouldn't expect too much from Juan. However, I was not one who expected the world of Vander, his season didn't surprise me too much and I never criticized him the way you are describing. Also, I have been on Juan's bandwagon for a while, and yes I think by the end of the year he will be the #1 guy off the bench (not considering the 4 players who will split no.s 4-5 positions 'coming off the bench' per say). Am I getting my hopes up? Sure, but I really do think he can be 'special.' Also, Juan is not a "big." He will more than likely play the 2-3.

Oh, and how were Brandon Knight and Selby disappointments. Fab Melo? Yes. Just cause they arent John Wall/Black Griffin doesnt make them disappointments.

Now, will I go crazy if Juan doestnt live up to what I just wrote down? No, I won't be too surprised if he struggles actually. I just truly believe he will more useful to this team down the stretch than Vander, Jones, D Wilson, Singleton and Mayo.

“All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act out their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible.” - T.E. Lawrence

murambler

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2011, 12:07:10 PM »
FWIW, here's a pretty solid breakdown of Marquette for 2011-12. 

http://www.thesportsbank.net/college-bball/marquette-looking-ahead-to-the-2011-2012-season/

Rather than dwell on the embarrassment that was Marquette’s Sweet 16 performance against North Carolina, I prefer to take the glass half-full approach and look ahead to next season.  Since it looks like Buzz Williams will not be fleeing the Brew City for Oklahoma, Missouri, or any of the other rumored coaching vacancies that his name has been linked to in the past couple weeks, the Golden Eagles only have to replace three seniors; Jimmy Butler, Dwight Buycks, and Joe Fulce.  (I guess four if you count Rob Frozena.)  Here is a look at how the 2011-2012 Marquette roster is shaping up and what I like and the role I would like to see each player have next season.

By: David Kay

Projected Depth Chart:
C: Chris Otule/Davante Gardner
F: Erik Williams/Jae Crowder
G/F: Vander Blue or Jamil Wilson/Juan Anderson/Jamail Jones
SG: Darius Johnson-Odom/Blue or Jones/Todd Mayo
PG: Junior Cadougan/Derrick Wilson/ Dave Singleton

Vander Blue, G/F, Soph.
What I like:
His ability and willingness to defend was the only reason Vander saw any playing time during Big East play as his offensive abilities became practically non-existent.  He brought great energy and athleticism to the floor and is the early candidate to replace Jimmy as Marquette’s lockdown defender next season.  I also think his court vision and ability to find the open man can be a major asset next season, and think the more MU gets out in transition, the more dangerous Vander can be.

What I want to see improve:
After the DePaul game in which he scored 12 points, Blue only scored 27 points in Marquette’s final eighteen games shooting just 8-49 from the field.  Everything about his offensive game needs to improve; shooting, ball-handling, finishing, hanging on to the rock while driving.  Re-gaining the confidence that he had during the non-conference schedule and adding strength to his thin frame would also help him in all of those areas.

Junior Cadougan, PG, Jr.
What I like:
I will admit, I was a big Junior hater at the beginning of the season.  But as the year wore on, Cadougan showed tremendous improvement and became a huge part of our offensive success.  A big part of that was his sudden desire to attack the basket and become more than just a facilitator on the perimeter.  He has also re-shaped his body to become more athletic which is crucial to his success as a defender especially in the Big East where he will match-up against extremely quick point guards.

What I want to see improve:
Cadougan was only 2-13 from three this season and needs to become a more reliable and consistent outside shooter.  His 63.8 free throw percentage also needs to improve particularly since the point guard has the ball in his hands so frequently in end of the game situations.  I would also like to see Cadougan improve his quickness on the defensive end.  He is going to be critical to Marquette’s success next season since he is the only point guard on the roster with major Division One college experience.  If he continues to develop as a player and leader, my faith in Junior will only increase.

Jae Crowder, PF, Sr.
What I like:
The parallels were drawn to Lazar Hayward before the season and it is easy to see why due to his inside/outside game, strength, terrific hands, toughness on the glass, and ability to play bigger than he actually is.  Crowder also became the emotional leader of Marquette this season and a guy who Buzz said early in the season, “could not be taken off the floor.”  He has a great feel for the game on both ends and can really be a tough match-up for opposing teams.

What I want to see improve:
Crowder really hit a rough patch in the second half of Big East play and more times than not, when he struggled; the entire team struggled specifically when he got into early foul trouble.  I would like to see Crowder develop an attack game where he can take defenders off the dribble especially since he is often matched up against bigger, slower power forwards who are not comfortable guarding out on the perimeter.  Improving on his 61-percent rate from the free throw line would also help since he gets so many looks on the inside.

Davante Gardner, C, Soph.
What I like:
Though inconsistent for too long of stretches, Gardner flashed some of his potential as a back to the basket scorer which is very encouraging for a team that has severely lacked a legit offensive post presence in quite some time.  He knows how to throw his body around and has a great touch around the hoop.

What I want to see improve:
It would be nice to see Gardner actually develop a vertical of more than three inches.  That will come with getting his body into better shape and becoming more athletic and quicker which will serve as a benefit especially on the defensive end.  His body language also drives me insane.  It looks like he is half asleep when he is playing.



Darius Johnson-Odom, SG, Sr.
What I like:
DJO proved to be Marquette’s most dangerous scoring weapon and is more than capable of being a 20 point per game type performer next season.  He can shoot the three ball (though his percentage dipped 11% from his sophomore season) and also use his quickness and strength to get to the rim.  He has the best shot fake in college basketball that certainly gives Bob Knight goose bumps.  DJO also showed some fire and at times, was MU’s vocal leader on the floor.

What I want to see improve:
Too often, DJO would only show up for a few minutes a half when he went into takeover mode and would then disappear the rest of the half.  That takeover mode would sometimes spiral out of control as he would put his head down and try to take a defense 1-on-5 off the bounce which rarely turned into a positive end result.  If he can become a more consistent scorer and better ball-handler, he has a legit chance to be an All-Big East First Team selection.

Jamail Jones, G/F, Soph.
What I like:
The little we saw of him, specifically in during Big East play, I liked Jones energy on the floor and his ability to play several positions.  He has great athleticism and seems to be a capable three-point shooter.  The potential definitely seems to be there, now hopefully he can continue to develop his all-around game and become a constant contributor next season.

What I want to see improve:
At 6-6, 210 pounds Jones certainly looks the part of a Division One wing player, but clearly struggled grasping the defensive philosophies in his freshman season which is why he was often the odd man out in the rotation. He just needs to have a better understanding of the game and I think he will be fine.

Chris Otule, C, Jr.
What I like:
For the first time in his three years at Marquette, Otule was finally healthy and provided a shot-blocking presence in the paint.  He also demonstrated the ability to be a difference maker on the glass and that he is developing a solid post-up game.  Otule works hard to establish position on the block (just ask Jay Bilas) and that is an encouraging sign moving forward.

What I want to see improve:
Too often if Otule did not get an early bucket or two, he became a complete non-factor on the offensive end.  Maybe that was the guards fault for not getting him enough touches during the course of a game but either way, he needs to a viable option from the opening tip to the final whistle for Marquette to be a complete team.  Foul trouble was also a concern this past season and I wish he had better hands or at the very least, his teammates learned not to whip quick passes his way.  But if Otule can continue to develop his all-around game, he and Gardner actually make an intriguing center combo.

Erik Williams, F, Jr.
What I like:
Williams has nice athleticism, was an okay rebounder, and displayed an ability to knock down the mid-range jump shot when he did see sparing minutes.  Plus, Marquette is 1-0 all-time when he scores the first two points of each half (he did so versus Xavier.)   Umm… that’s about it.

What I want to see improve:
I will tread lightly here… Is it me or did Williams seem like chicken with its head cut off when he was on the floor?  From what I have heard, the biggest thing holding Williams back is his understanding of the offense and the team concept on defense.  If Williams is going to be more than a “play the first three minutes of each half” type of player, I would also like to see him get a little stronger and more physical since those minutes will more than likely come at the four.  I am not sure what recruiting analysts saw when he was a top-100 recruit two years ago, but hopefully some of that begins to shine through now that he will be an upperclassman.

NEWCOMERS:
Jamil Wilson, SF, Soph.
The Racine native and Oregon transfer could be the x-factor for Marquette next season.  He was a consensus top-100 recruit coming out of high school due to his athleticism and versatility, and should be knowledgable about what the team is trying to do since he has the experience of practicing with the team while sitting out per NCAA transfer rules.  He has “switchability” as Buzz calls it meaning he could fit into a Jimmy Butler like role being able to play and guard multiple positions.  I would not at all be surprised if was in the starting line-up from game one.

Dave Singleton, G, Jr.
After transferring from High Point and sitting out this past season, I am interested to see what kind of impact the walk-on will have for Marquette.  At 6-4, he has nice size for a combo guard and especially for a point guard, a position he spent a lot of minutes playing at High Point.  I would imagine he will be more than just a Rob Frozena-type walk-on, but I am curious to see what type of role he will have next season.

Juan Anderson, SF, Fr.
Besides having the greatest the twitter handle ever (juanonjuan10), Anderson is another player who possesses tremendous “switchability.”  I have only seen clips on Youtube of Anderson playing, but he appears to have a fairly well-round offensive game to compliment his size (6’7”, 210 pounds) and a solid frame that should only become stronger as he gets into a college strength and conditioning program.  I am excited about his future at Marquette.

Todd Mayo, SG, Fr.
From what I’ve seen of Mayo, he reminds me a little bit of Syracuse freshman guard Dion Waiters.  He has good strength for a 6-3, 190 pound off guard and can stroke it from the outside which is outstanding since Marquette does not have a lot of consistent perimeter threats on their roster for next year.

Derrick Wilson, PG, Fr.
Wilson, who was also a great football player in high school, seems like a perfect Buzz Williams recruit due to his toughness.  He is built like a rock at 6-1, 190 pounds, uses his quickness and strength to get to the basket, but needs to improve his outside shot.  He and Singleton figure to compete for minutes backing up Junior at the point.

Marquette has one scholarship remaining for the 2011-2012 season.  Ideally I would like to see Buzz land a true power forward but with most prospects already signed for next season, MU might be better off sitting on an open scholarship.  Unless of course Buzz has another JUCO prospect up his sleeve, can land another transfer, or capitalize on a player who has de-committed due to an end of the season coaching change.

Whatever the case may be with that final scholarship, the Golden Eagles should once again be competing for a spot in the tournament and in my totally unbiased opinion, finish somewhere between fifth-seventh in the Big East.


Stuckin1977

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Re: 2011-2012 MU Prediction Thread
« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2011, 12:29:17 PM »
11-7 and another trip to the Sweet 16.  We also knock off Wisconsin next year in Madison.