Could MU wind up being Duke's Best Win This Year?

[Tugg Speedman]

Using Realtime RPI here are Dukes' best wins this year ...

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_123_Men.html

KSU #38
Butler #42
BC #43
MSU #44
UAB #45
MU #61

0-0 against top 25 teams!

They still have UNC to play (twice) which is #13 and Temple at #37.

If we get hot the rest of the way (say 6-2), and KSU, Butler and MSU continue to struggle as they have (BC and UAB schedules suck and they are not moving up if they win), it is conceivable that the highest rated Duke's win this year will be MU! Otherwise is Coach K going around gloating "we beat Butler?"

I say better than 50% that we are one of Duke's top three wins by the end of the year.

Schedule matters and Duke doesn't have one.  They have no business being #5.  They are not tested like BE teams.

[mu_hilltopper]

If MU goes 6-2, our RPI will be 59, so says RPIForecast.  I doubt it's possible to leapfrog those 5 other teams.  Even 7-1 would probably only raise us < 10 spots .. so my guess is we're locked into Duke's 9th best win (if they sweep UNC/Temple) .. 6th if they do not.

[HouWarrior]

Agree. But this is like almost every year for them.

Duke has historically managed their ranking, seeding and tourney locations with smart, self serving scheduling to enhance themselves.

Prior to the conference season, they usually only play one good competition tourney, and always on neutral courts.

This year, Duke played  at home or on neutrals for 14, of their first 15 games(fattening up to 15-0). Their first true away game on real competition's home court, was FSU.. ..their first loss(15-1).

Duke is not much better than 50%(59%)(including the easier ACC road wins), in all true road games...so they avoid scheduling  them. See:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/590900-duke-basketball-loss-to-st-johns-exposes-blue-devils-road-problems-again

Rarely do they EVER play a non neutral, away from home game, against stiff non conference competition, at most one -two games per year---(see UW loss last season). It is unlikely they worried over this year's  away game with St John's, but rather planned on arguing they beat a BE team on an away court--ooops,surprise(their second loss).

The Acc gives them many relatively easy wins(home and away)...so except for UNC (7miles from home) and the likes of Maryland, Wake(in state), their away conf games/losses are minimized. Duke sets themselves up every year with no more than 3-5 tough road games. Cameron home court advantage(92%), and ACC scheduling locks up the rest of a perrenially good record.

Then, with the carefully crafted record, and their tourney history, they lobby hard to be seeded/placed in good locations for NCAA tourney rounds--one year they never left NC, until the final 4!

I would argue, in comparison to BE, and many B10, and B12 teams, who face tougher scheduling, they are over rated, almost every year. But by this careful schedule crafting, and the history that they produce enough ultimate success on two weekends per year (NCAA rounds Sweet 16 to finals), the press/coaches fawn over the success, and Duke always gets the benefits of any doubt on ranking, seeding, and locations.


Duke is the (blue) devil, and must be destroyed!!

[Tugg Speedman]

Using KenPom Rankings Duke's best win this year are:

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

21 = Maryland (Twice)
26 = MU
44 = MSU
45 = KSU

Still to play

14 = UNC
36 = Temple
30 Clemson

So KenPom has MU as Duke's second best win.  Worst case is third (if they beat UNC).

So are they walking around Durham saying they deserve a #1 seed because they beat MU?

[Marquette84]

Agree. But this is like almost every year for them.

Duke has historically managed their ranking, seeding and tourney locations with smart, self serving scheduling to enhance themselves.

Prior to the conference season, they usually only play one good competition tourney, and always on neutral courts.

This year, Duke played  at home or on neutrals for 14, of their first 15 games(fattening up to 15-0). Their first true away game on real competition's home court, was FSU.. ..their first loss(15-1).

Duke is not much better than 50%(59%)(including the easier ACC road wins), in all true road games...so they avoid scheduling  them. See:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/590900-duke-basketball-loss-to-st-johns-exposes-blue-devils-road-problems-again

Rarely do they EVER play a non neutral, away from home game, against stiff non conference competition, at most one -two games per year---(see UW loss last season). It is unlikely they worried over this year's  away game with St John's, but rather planned on arguing they beat a BE team on an away court--ooops,surprise(their second loss).

The Acc gives them many relatively easy wins(home and away)...so except for UNC (7miles from home) and the likes of Maryland, Wake(in state), their away conf games/losses are minimized. Duke sets themselves up every year with no more than 3-5 tough road games. Cameron home court advantage(92%), and ACC scheduling locks up the rest of a perrenially good record.

Then, with the carefully crafted record, and their tourney history, they lobby hard to be seeded/placed in good locations for NCAA tourney rounds--one year they never left NC, until the final 4!

I would argue, in comparison to BE, and many B10, and B12 teams, who face tougher scheduling, they are over rated, almost every year. But by this careful schedule crafting, and the history that they produce enough ultimate success on two weekends per year (NCAA rounds Sweet 16 to finals), the press/coaches fawn over the success, and Duke always gets the benefits of any doubt on ranking, seeding, and locations.


Duke is the (blue) devil, and must be destroyed!!

Its not just Duke.  Syracuse & Pitt do the same thing, and routinely get rewarded with high seeds.

[chren21]

I'm looking at our schedule and I don't see such a tuff non-conf away schedule.  Maybe every other year when we are at Wisco.  Otherwise how is our's different?  @UWM and @Vandy.  I really dont count @UWM as a qualifer to what you stated... 

"a non neutral, away from home game, against stiff non conference competition, at most one -two games per year"........   That pretty much sums up our scheduling, right?

The difference is that we dont make it past the first weekend of the NCAA's.  What twice in 30 or so years?

Didn't the national perception of Gonzaga and Mich State totally change based on consistent success?  Bottom line is when you win in the tourney you EARN respect.  Not sure how the BE teams can get more rewarded than just by the pure number of teams that get in the tourney every year. 

[KipsBayEagle]

Agree. But this is like almost every year for them.

Duke has historically managed their ranking, seeding and tourney locations with smart, self serving scheduling to enhance themselves.

Prior to the conference season, they usually only play one good competition tourney, and always on neutral courts.

This year, Duke played  at home or on neutrals for 14, of their first 15 games(fattening up to 15-0). Their first true away game on real competition's home court, was FSU.. ..their first loss(15-1).

Duke is not much better than 50%(59%)(including the easier ACC road wins), in all true road games...so they avoid scheduling  them. See:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/590900-duke-basketball-loss-to-st-johns-exposes-blue-devils-road-problems-again

Rarely do they EVER play a non neutral, away from home game, against stiff non conference competition, at most one -two games per year---(see UW loss last season). It is unlikely they worried over this year's  away game with St John's, but rather planned on arguing they beat a BE team on an away court--ooops,surprise(their second loss).

The Acc gives them many relatively easy wins(home and away)...so except for UNC (7miles from home) and the likes of Maryland, Wake(in state), their away conf games/losses are minimized. Duke sets themselves up every year with no more than 3-5 tough road games. Cameron home court advantage(92%), and ACC scheduling locks up the rest of a perrenially good record.

Then, with the carefully crafted record, and their tourney history, they lobby hard to be seeded/placed in good locations for NCAA tourney rounds--one year they never left NC, until the final 4!

I would argue, in comparison to BE, and many B10, and B12 teams, who face tougher scheduling, they are over rated, almost every year. But by this careful schedule crafting, and the history that they produce enough ultimate success on two weekends per year (NCAA rounds Sweet 16 to finals), the press/coaches fawn over the success, and Duke always gets the benefits of any doubt on ranking, seeding, and locations.


Duke is the (blue) devil, and must be destroyed!!

As much as I love bashing duke, it's not their fault Michigan state, butler, and kansas State crashed and burned this year, and that the acc only has one other halfway decent team.

[Tugg Speedman]

As much as I love bashing duke, it's not their fault Michigan state, butler, and kansas State crashed and burned this year, and that the acc only has one other halfway decent team.

True, but this also means they are not as battle tested as they have been in recent years.  Yet given their light schedule, the pollsters are ranking them on reputation and not on results.

[ATL MU Warrior]

True, but this also means they are not as battle tested as they have been in recent years.  Yet given their light schedule, the pollsters are ranking them on reputation and not on results.

Not sure I agree with this.  There are four teams in the current Top 25 that have two losses:

#2 - Pitt
#5 - Duke
#7 - BYU
#21 - Utah State

That looks about right to me.  The teams ahead of them have fewer losses except Texas with 3.  No team ranked behind Duke has fewer than 4 losses. 

Based on results (which I presume you mean to be W/L) where else would you rank them?

[HouWarrior]

Based on results (which I presume you mean to be W/L) where else would you rank them?

Actually, mere win loss ranking is the very point--- such can be deceptive, and NOT always a true measure of a team's strength...When sdsu or Cincinatti were undefeated, did they merit their rankings? Does anyone think sdsu and BYU are 6th and 7th best in the USA?

Rankings are to rank the best, to the lesser. On such level, Duke is not yet proven to be 5th best in USA, especially as true road losses to FSU, and St. John's (T-9 in BE), leave serious doubts. I do not begrudge Duke's smart scheduling of neutrals and its advantage of playing in the weaker ACC, ...a good record is admired, even if it may mask the true strength of the team.

The real reason to call it out, as to its possible deception, is when it results in an easy 1 or 2 NCAA seed, when other "better" teams get lesser seeds, simply because they played more tough away games, or in a tougher conference, resulting in more losses.

Except for last year, previously, Duke was getting regularly exposed...as... twice as a No. 1 seed and once as a No. 2, the Blue Devils had lost to lower-seeded teams four straight years. Losing four straight years to lower seeds, leads to the question of whether it merits the seed, or whether  it gets in higher seeds than its deserved, ...i.e., more on good scheduling and prior reputation.

Duke is 5th ranked now-- but they will not be in the elite 8.This will be another year in which they lose to a lesser ranked team.  Mark it down.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Actually, mere win loss ranking is the very point--- such can be deceptive, and NOT always a true measure of a team's strength...When sdsu or Cincinatti were undefeated, did they merit their rankings? Does anyone think sdsu and BYU are 6th and 7th best in the USA?

Rankings are to rank the best, to the lesser. On such level, Duke is not yet proven to be 5th best in USA, especially as true road losses to FSU, and St. John's (T-9 in BE), leave serious doubts. I do not begrudge Duke's smart scheduling of neutrals and its advantage of playing in the weaker ACC, ...a good record is admired, even if it may mask the true strength of the team.

The real reason to call it out, as to its possible deception, is when it results in an easy 1 or 2 NCAA seed, when other "better" teams get lesser seeds, simply because they played more tough away games, or in a tougher conference, resulting in more losses.

Except for last year, previously, Duke was getting regularly exposed...as... twice as a No. 1 seed and once as a No. 2, the Blue Devils had lost to lower-seeded teams four straight years. Losing four straight years to lower seeds, leads to the question of whether it merits the seed, or whether  it gets in higher seeds than its deserved, ...i.e., more on good scheduling and prior reputation.

Duke is 5th ranked now-- but they will not be in the elite 8.This will be another year in which they lose to a lesser ranked team.  Mark it down.

OK so who should be ranked ahead of them?  Just curious to see your take.

[HouWarrior]

Almost exactly as was reviewed some time ago---a typical duke year--Only one tough true away game in nonconf-- they lose. The rest non conf were carefully crafted as nuetrals. The ACC allowed for a hideout. They play in Charlotte NC for the first weekend. Then finally, in weekend 2 they travel to pac 10 country, in Anaheim, and BOOM... AZ knocks them out.

Beleive it or not if we beat UNC and advance, some dookies may actually argue MU was one of their biggest wins of the year.

[jesmu84]

Almost exactly as was reviewed some time ago---a typical duke year--Only one tough true away game in nonconf-- they lose. The rest non conf were carefully crafted as nuetrals. The ACC allowed for a hideout. They play in Charlotte NC for the first weekend. Then finally, in weekend 2 they travel to pac 10 country, in Anaheim, and BOOM... AZ knocks them out.

+1. Tony reali mentioned today That coach K's Duke teams are winless in West region sweet 16 games

[groove]

Almost exactly as was reviewed some time ago---a typical duke year--Only one tough true away game in nonconf-- they lose. The rest non conf were carefully crafted as nuetrals. The ACC allowed for a hideout. They play in Charlotte NC for the first weekend. Then finally, in weekend 2 they travel to pac 10 country, in Anaheim, and BOOM... AZ knocks them out.

Beleive it or not if we beat UNC and advance, some dookies may actually argue MU was one of their biggest wins of the year.

Typical duke year except for those years when they win the title

[HouWarrior]

Typical duke year except for those years when they win the title

they only advance when they play/stay close to home---their advancing is best predicted as to whether they are going into hostile areas ....review the years they win, and you'll still see the point holds...when they come out of NC regional sites, and play at, or close to home they advance....and have won...exactly as pointed out.

Duke has been assigned to the West region in 5 seasons, including this year, and it is 0-5 ...never having advanced out of the region.

Pull out a year in which they were a West seed or played above their seed or well outside the region, and you'd be showing a  defect in the point---I dont think there is one.