Vegas line down to 4

[79Warrior]

Opened at 5.5

looks like some money moving over to MU

[MountainCreekHouse]

I'm not too familiar with gambling.. does this mean that UNC is now a 4 pt favorite?

[Benny B]

I'm not too familiar with gambling.. does this mean that UNC is now a 4 pt favorite?

Yes, it does mean that Vegas believes UNC will win by 4 points.

I'm showing -4.5 this morning.  Regardless, let's put this in perspective:

Kansas (1) is a 10.5 pt favorite over Richmond (12)
Duke (1) is a 8.5 pt favorite over Arizona (5)

While Richmond and Arizona have a daunting task ahead (as does Marquette), Marquette is nowhere near the underdog that Arizona and Richmond are considered to be.

OSU (1) is a 5.5 pt favorite over Kentucky (4)

You could loosely translate this into "Vegas thinks it's more likely that Marquette beats UNC than Kentucky beats OSU."

In any event... with it's fan base, name recognition, and seed advantage, for UNC to lose 1-1.5 points after opening at 5 is a pretty significant movement.  Granted, they're still favored, but Vegas doesn't consider this game a "lock" any more than Wisconsin is a "lock" to beat Butler.

Don't call MU Cinderella; call us Sleeping Beauty... and may God help you if you wake us up.

[NersEllenson]

Interesting on Ken Pomroy:

Number 11 - Syracuse
12 - North Carolina
13- UCONN
14 - LVILLE
15 - Notre Dame

Just saying..there is NO reason MU should think for a minute it cannot compete with UNC.  We absolutely can beat these guys if we are on our game..

Incidentally - MU is 26

[texaswarrior74]

Yes, it does mean that Vegas believes UNC will win by 4 points.

I'm showing -4.5 this morning.  Regardless, let's put this in perspective:

Kansas (1) is a 10.5 pt favorite over Richmond (12)
Duke (1) is a 8.5 pt favorite over Arizona (5)

While Richmond and Arizona have a daunting task ahead (as does Marquette), Marquette is nowhere near the underdog that Arizona and Richmond are considered to be.

OSU (1) is a 5.5 pt favorite over Kentucky (4)

You could loosely translate this into "Vegas thinks it's more likely that Marquette beats UNC than Kentucky beats OSU."

In any event... with it's fan base, name recognition, and seed advantage, for UNC to lose 1-1.5 points after opening at 5 is a pretty significant movement.  Granted, they're still favored, but Vegas doesn't consider this game a "lock" any more than Wisconsin is a "lock" to beat Butler.

Don't call MU Cinderella; call us Sleeping Beauty... and may God help you if you wake us up.

You also have to remember that Vegas oddsmakers are trying to make money for the house.....at the very least they want to break even.

It probably means that early money is getting too heavy in one direction and they need to "balance" their books by getting more action the other way......that is usually what causes swings like this midweek...

[NersEllenson]

You also have to remember that Vegas oddsmakers are trying to make money for the house.....at the very least they want to break even.

It probably means that early money is getting too heavy in one direction and they need to "balance" their books by getting more action the other way......that is usually what causes swings like this midweek...

Yeah...too many people were taking Marquette and the points...so they have to get more fans picking UNC..thus the drop in line..

[96warrior]

Don't call MU Cinderella; call us Sleeping Beauty... and may God help you if you wake us up.

I like. May steal.

[Benny B]

You also have to remember that Vegas oddsmakers are trying to make money for the house.....at the very least they want to break even.

It probably means that early money is getting too heavy in one direction and they need to "balance" their books by getting more action the other way......that is usually what causes swings like this midweek...

My bad... I skipped over that part, but yes, that is the whole basis here.  And considering that the inefficient money (the bets that are not influenced by the line, e.g. "homer" and "name-only" bets) is going to be top heavy to UNC, that means the efficient money (the rational bets) has to be that much more active on Marquette's side for that kind of mid-week swing to occur.  That, or Vegas was expecting more inefficient money on UNC and that simply hasn't occurred.

[klyrish]

Don't call MU Cinderella; call us Sleeping Beauty... and may God help you if you wake us up.

Love it!

[bamamarquettefan]

You also have to remember that Vegas oddsmakers are trying to make money for the house.....at the very least they want to break even.

It probably means that early money is getting too heavy in one direction and they need to "balance" their books by getting more action the other way......that is usually what causes swings like this midweek...

This is true, but this is part of what Vegas does to get the point spreads close.  People who know more generally wager early.  Therefore, when a lot of people start wagering one way it moves teh line one way because Vegas "knows" many people in the know are looking at their initial line and believing it is too far in one direction and therefore going the other way.