Lunardi has 7 teams in behind us

[drewm88]

Apologies is this is mentioned in a different thread.

Lunardi has an updated S-Curve out. We are #42.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=6150750

VTech, Memphis, Butler, BC, Gonzaga, Colorado State, and Richmond are behind us and in. Utah, Baylor, Gophers, and VCU are first four out.

Edit: Important to note that Memphis is probably getting an automatic bid. In Lunardi's mind, there are 21 bubble teams competing for 10 spots. We are 4th of those 21, behind Michigan State, Alabama, and Georgia.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Something's got to give.  Palm was 65 of 65 last year, Lunardi was 64 of 65 right last year.

Should be interesting in the coming weeks.

Palm has us out right now, Lunardi has us in with room to spare....something has to give.

[BrewCity83]

Lots of games still to be played before selection Sunday.  Things will become more clear over the next 18 days and I suspect the "experts" will come together during that time.

[JerryWizig]

Do Palm and Lunardi have different philosophies about predicting the bracket? Doesn't Palm go with the "If the tournament started today" mindset and Lunardi consider what might happen in the future?

Because if the tournament started today, Marquette's numbers don't look good. Go 3-1 and win a game in the BET, they'll look a lot better.

[dwaderoy2004]

Do Palm and Lunardi have different philosophies about predicting the bracket? Doesn't Palm go with the "If the tournament started today" mindset and Lunardi consider what might happen in the future?

Because if the tournament started today, Marquette's numbers don't look good. Go 3-1 and win a game in the BET, they'll look a lot better.

Other way around, I think.  At the very least, I know Lunardi definitely does it based on "if the season ended today."  Not as sure about Palm. 

Big game tomorrow...and Calhoun won't be coaching due to a death in the family. 

[ErickJD08]

All that means is that this friggin game is so important.  A win at UConn will give us some breathing room and might lock us in.

[SacWarrior]

The wide margin between Lunardi and Palm's picks indicate how "weak" the analysts seem to think the Bubble is this year.

Of course, the bubble is weak every year, and every February we get the same recycled columns about how weak the NCAAs are in general and how there is no dominant team. Same thing happens in the NFL every year when every sportswriter writes the same December article about how there's no Super Bowl frontrunner.

[ErickJD08]

The wide margin between Lunardi and Palm's picks indicate how "weak" the analysts seem to think the Bubble is this year.

Of course, the bubble is weak every year, and every February we get the same recycled columns about how weak the NCAAs are in general and how there is no dominant team. Same thing happens in the NFL every year when every sportswriter writes the same December article about how there's no Super Bowl frontrunner.

???  Don't remember that.  Last few years there have been dominant teams as the front runners and there have been teams with pretty good resumes being left out.  I think this year is pretty weak.  And let's not even talk about the NFL...

[kryza]

Other way around, I think.  At the very least, I know Lunardi definitely does it based on "if the season ended today."  Not as sure about Palm.  

Big game tomorrow...and Calhoun won't be coaching due to a death in the family.  

Palm has Michigan in right now and they will probably lose their last 3 games (no way they are "in" if the season ended today either). Which leads me to believe, that he doesn't have any standard philosophy...but he purely goes off personal preferences.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The wide margin between Lunardi and Palm's picks indicate how "weak" the analysts seem to think the Bubble is this year.

Of course, the bubble is weak every year, and every February we get the same recycled columns about how weak the NCAAs are in general and how there is no dominant team. Same thing happens in the NFL every year when every sportswriter writes the same December article about how there's no Super Bowl frontrunner.

Well, maybe.  In some years we've seen Big East teams with winning records not make the NCAA Tournament.  In those years, the bubble is hard.  Buzz's first year I don't think the bubble was very soft.  Last year it was soft, and this year even softer.  Depends on the year.  There have certainly been "snubs" in years past that were legit, but this year and last year snubs will be non-existent. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Palm has Michigan in right now and they will probably lose their last 3 games (no way they are "in" if the season ended today either). Which leads me to believe, that he doesn't have any standard philosophy...but he purely goes off personal preferences.

There's a science and an art to it, which he will clearly tell you.  His "personal preferences" have been pretty good barometer. 

I've been wondering about Michigan for awhile now.  MU is a better team than Michigan, but Michigan's RPI is better.  Palm will default to RPI for right now, but when he does his final picks he will sometimes pick someone with a worse RPI because of his eyeball test.

It does not surprise me that he has Michigan ahead of us right now because of their 58RPI compared to our 68RPI.

[MuMark]

If its just based on RPI thats a pretty weak argument. MU's best wins are better then Michigan's. MU's losses are better. MU has a better conference record in the top RPI conference and the overall records are the same.

He is out there on an island with Michigan. No other respected expert has them in.

If they beat Wisconsin their chances improve significantly but as of now its hard to defend that pick.

[BrewCity83]

(Clenches jaw)...So we are rooting for Wisconsin to win tonight.    

[Windyplayer]

(Clenches jaw)...So we are rooting for Wisconsin to win tonight.    

Alas, yes. And K-State, we don't need Nebraska sneaking in.

[Fullodds]

Tough to predict with this new format (number of bids).  Will the committee reward deep conferences or look to mid-majors?  No matter what, we need more wins. 

[MuMark]

Heartbreak for Michigan........Gasser banks in a long 3 at the buzzer.

Michigan missed their last 6 free throws(inlcluding a 1 and 1 with 35 seconds left) and lose by 1.......

Ugly game but a nice road win for Bucky and good for us.

[BCHoopster]

Michigan is 0-5 against ranked teams at home??  They play Minny away, big bubble game and
then MSU at home, opportunities abound, still have the tourny's, nothing will be decided for a
few weeks.  You can play your way in or out!  MU wins 2 game in NY, they need to do that.

[marquette99]

Maybe it will even out this year and lunardi will get them all and palm will have one miss - mu!  My bigger concern now is cincy drubbing gtown on the road and the easy game we have left featuring the conference mvp in brooks who just put 52 up, to be followed by hazell on his court.

Sure would be nice to pull the stunner tonight and breath easier.