MU 2011 v 2010

[Tugg Speedman]

MU 2010
Final Record 22-12
BE Record 11-7
vs Top 25 = 3-6
vs Top 50 = 3-10
Final Sargarin Rating = 36
Final KenPom Rating = 33
NCAA #6 seed


MU 2011
Through Feb 20
Current Record 16-11
Current BE Record 7-7
vs Top 25 = 3-9
vs Top 50 = 3-10
Current Sargarin Rating = 32
Current KenPom Rating = 33
NCAA = strong bubble team

They look pretty similar

[ChicosBailBonds]

MU 2010
Final Record 22-12
BE Record 11-7
vs Top 25 = 3-6
vs Top 50 = 3-10
vs Top 100 = 10-11
Final Sargarin Rating = 36
Final KenPom Rating = 33
Final RPI rating = 54
Record Away and Neutral = 9-8
NCAA #6 seed


MU 2011
Through Feb 20
Current Record 16-11
Current BE Record 7-7
Projected Final BE Record = 9-9
vs Top 25 = 3-9
vs Top 50 = 3-10
Projected vs Top 100 = 5-13
Current Sargarin Rating = 32
Current KenPom Rating = 33
Projected Final RPI rating = 70
Projected Record Away and Neutral = 4-11
NCAA = strong bubble team

They look pretty similar

I added a few things to your analysis, changes things don't you think?  

UW-M's RPI is 107 right now, not 99 which is why your numbers are different than mine.  Realtime says 99, but 4 other RPI sites I'm looking at all have them at 107 to 109.

The reason?  Realtime RPI isn't "realtime" at all, it doesn't include UW-Hyphen M's beat down yesterday to Buffalo.

[Tugg Speedman]

The additions to do not up

Projections of 9-9 in conference means 2 and 2 the rest of the way.
Projections of 4-11 Away/Neutral means 1 and 1 the the rest of the way.  That must mean lose to Uconn and beat Seton Hall on the road.

To get the numbers above that must mean we go 1 and 1 the rest of the way at home.  I assume that means we lose to Cincy and beat Prov at home.

Who says we lose to Cincy?
KenPom has the game 50/50.  Not predicting a loss (or victory)
Realtime RPI gives us a 1 point victory (sorry you dismiss them because you do not like their answers)
Sargarin has us winning by 2 points (MU is 84.41 plus 4 for home court equal 88.41 vs 86.71 for Cincy).

So where do you get 9 - 9 and 5 - 13?
Looks like the projections are 10-8 and 6-12.

Also, vtop 30 ... 0-7 on the road.  vtop 100 less top 30 on the road, 5 and 4.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Explained below

The additions to do not up

Projections of 9-9 in conference means 2 and 2 the rest of the way. 
Projections of 4-11 Away/Neutral means 1 and 1 the the rest of the way.  That must mean lose to Uconn and beat Seton Hall on the road.  Actually, it adds up just fine  The RPI gurus I'm using are saying we finish with losses at Seton Hall and at UCONN but beat UC and Providence...that's 9-9.  Currently we are 3-8 away/neutral...add those two road losses (UCONN & HALL) and we are 3-10.  The gurus predict us to go 1-1 in the Big East Tournament...that means 4-11 Away / Neutral

To get the numbers above that must mean we go 1 and 1 the rest of the way at home.  I assume that means we lose to Cincy and beat Prov at home.

Who says we lose to Cincy?
KenPom has the game 50/50.  Not predicting a loss (or victory)
Realtime RPI gives us a 1 point victory (sorry you dismiss them because you do not like their answers)
WHY DO YOU CONTINUE TO USE REALTIME RPI WHEN IT SUCKS ASS and isn't "realtime" at all?  Their predictive RPI is totally wrong, their data is late, etc, etc

Sargarin has us winning by 2 points (MU is 84.41 plus 4 for home court equal 88.41 vs 86.71 for Cincy).

So where do you get 9 - 9 and 5 - 13?
Looks like the projections are 10-8 and 6-12.

Also, vtop 30 ... 0-7 on the road.  vtop 100 less top 30 on the road, 5 and 4.  Top 30?  I don't even know what you're saying here.  Please clarify.

[Tugg Speedman]

we are 4-11 v the top 100, as you note above

However, 7 of those losses were against top 30 teams on the road ... games we were not favored in.  Games tOSU, Texas or Kansas would not be favored in!  Strip those out and we are 4-4 against the rest.

Most team do not play 7 top 30 teams in a season let alone 7 on the road.  (and we still have at at least one more in Uconn and possibly another in the BE tourney).

Related ... a lot of people think tOSU should still be #1 next week even though they lost two games in the last 8 days.  They lost at #14 Wisc and at #11 Purdue.  They were not favored in these games so losing should not affect their ranking.

That said, we do the same, actually we do it seven times over, as we suck and deserve to go the NIT.  Double Standard?

[ChicosBailBonds]

we are 4-11 v the top 100, as you note above

However, 7 of those losses were against top 30 teams on the road ... games we were not favored in.  Games tOSU, Texas or Kansas would not be favored in!  Strip those out and we are 4-4 against the rest.

Most team do not play 7 top 30 teams in a season let alone 7 on the road.  (and we still have at at least one more in Uconn and possibly another in the BE tourney).

Related ... a lot of people think tOSU should still be #1 next week even though they lost two games in the last 8 days.  They lost at #14 Wisc and at #11 Purdue.  They were not favored in these games so losing should not affect their ranking.

That said, we do the same, actually we do it seven times over, as we suck and deserve to go the NIT.  Double Standard?

Not sure why you are saying NIT when I think we'll go to the NCAA.  Are you directing that to someone else?

The problem with your analogy here and in so many of your other posts is that you don't take in the entire picture.  Yes, OSU lost twice on the road in the last two weeks.  The difference is that those are their ONLY 2 losses this year.  They beat that same Purdue team by 23 points.  They beat Florida by 18 or whatever...ON THE ROAD.  They beat Florida State...ON THE ROAD. 

As for the top 30, as I've stated before, it's just not how the NCAA slices the data.  If so, some other school is going to scream why not top 15 instead of top 20....why not top 27 instead of top 30.  Etc, etc.  Their data sheets, at least the ones they used to use, where broken out into top 25, top 50, top 100. 

I still think MU goes to the Dance.  The bubble is ridiculous, 68 teams this year, and nobody else out there is grabbing the bulls by the horn.  That said, I also believe 9-9 is going to be an absolute nail biter and not some kind of layup like some here have portrayed.  Hell, we had people on here within the last 2 weeks say 8-10 would get us in.   

[bamamarquettefan]

It's a good analysis.  The biggest difference this year in the rtgular season is that we've played much better teams this year, including a Big East that is much better.  However, beyond that I don't see much difference in the regular season.

On Chico's record away from the Bradley Center, let's break that down by Pomeroy's ratings:

Vs. top 50 teams: 1-5 last year,  0-8 this year.  We beat Xavier to start the season last year then lost our last 5, so not much difference.

vs. non-top 50:  6-1  last year, 3-0 this year.  So the biggest difference for me on the regular season is that we lost at DePaul.

Now MU wasn't a 6-seed going into the Big East tournament either.  They clearly moved up a couple of spots by beating St. John's and Villanova there, so hopefully we can do the same - but the regular seasons are very similar except for the much tougher schedule.

[El Duderino]

Not sure why you are saying NIT when I think we'll go to the NCAA.  Are you directing that to someone else?

The problem with your analogy here and in so many of your other posts is that you don't take in the entire picture.  Yes, OSU lost twice on the road in the last two weeks.  The difference is that those are their ONLY 2 losses this year.  They beat that same Purdue team by 23 points.  They beat Florida by 18 or whatever...ON THE ROAD.  They beat Florida State...ON THE ROAD. 

As for the top 30, as I've stated before, it's just not how the NCAA slices the data.  If so, some other school is going to scream why not top 15 instead of top 20....why not top 27 instead of top 30.  Etc, etc.  Their data sheets, at least the ones they used to use, where broken out into top 25, top 50, top 100. 

I still think MU goes to the Dance.  The bubble is ridiculous, 68 teams this year, and nobody else out there is grabbing the bulls by the horn.  That said, I also believe 9-9 is going to be an absolute nail biter and not some kind of layup like some here have portrayed.  Hell, we had people on here within the last 2 weeks say 8-10 would get us in.   

If we finish 9-9 in the manner you suggested, i think depending on how other bubble teams finish out the year, an NCAA Tournament bid could very well could be riding on our first game of the Big East Tournament. Win that game, we are a near lock to be in, lose and it could go to 60/40 or 70/30 we get left out.

Besides the obvious of wanting that bid instead of the NIT, the other reason i hope we get in is that the NCAA Tournament this year could be one of the craziest ever.

There aren't many elite teams this year in college ball, but i do think there are a lot of pretty good/not great teams. So once the 1-2 seeds (about 8 teams) are removed from the conversation, it'll be hard for many other losses by teams, even 3 seeds facing a 14 seed to be considered a really big upset.

Given the problems Marquette has had all year finding consistency at the PG position, playing good defense, and holding on to 2nd half leads, i have a hard time envisioning them running off multiple wins if they get to the big dance. That said, with a shortage of top notch teams in college ball and the way this team can be so explosive offensively, i wouldn't be shocked if they exceeded expectations and got to the Sweet 16 or even the Elite 8, but that i'd consider more a shocker.

[Tugg Speedman]

Not sure why you are saying NIT when I think we'll go to the NCAA.  Are you directing that to someone else?

Not directed at you.  I was think of the poll question I posted after the SJU loss that had people here giving us roughly at 50/50 chance of making the NCAA tourney.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=24572.0