Keep sweating, Lunardi still has us in

[Windyplayer]

As an #11 seed against Texas A&M. Let's take care of business on Saturday night.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Lighthouse 84]

With Bucky as a 2nd round matchup.....

[NersEllenson]

With Bucky as a 2nd round matchup.....

Now that could be potentially great..advance past the first round and then knockout Wisconsin in the 2nd round.  May the gods of Al McGuire make this happen!

[brewcity77]

Pretty sure the committee tries to have teams avoid playing other teams that they played in the regular season during the first and second rounds of the tournament. With that said, there's pretty much no way they would put us in a bracket that would line us up for a second round match with either Wisconsin or Bucknell, both teams we played this season. My guess is our pod would more likely be put into the Southwest bracket with a potential second round matchup with either Purdue or Princeton, or either moved up a line as the West 10 seed, taking on Xavier in the first and the winner of BYU/Long Beach State in the second.

[muguru]

The problem here is, that there is a rule that states a team cannot be placed out of it's natural Region more than 3 times in 5 years. So if that is a hard and fast rule, MU almost HAS to play in the Midwest this year.

[GoldenWarrior]

Let's focus on...

1. Getting into the tournament
2. The first round matchup

...before we go worrying about a potential second round matchup.

[brewcity77]

The problem here is, that there is a rule that states a team cannot be placed out of it's natural Region more than 3 times in 5 years. So if that is a hard and fast rule, MU almost HAS to play in the Midwest this year.

The problem there is that there is no Midwest this year. So what then becomes our natural region? The East because of our conference? The East regional in Newark is also closest to us. However, that bracket is already slated for 3 Big East teams, all seeded higher than us. The committee could easily place us in Chicago, which according to that is funneling into either the West or Southwest regionals.

The thing is, we really don't have a natural region anymore. We aren't located in the East, Southeast, Southwest, or West. So as much as it may suck, my guess is that the committee can pretty much make us their bitch, especially if we're an 11-12 seed.

[wojosdojo]

As happy as I'd be just to get in, I would be estatic if we got to play in Chicago.

On another note, is there a chance Bucknell can win a game or two in the tourny? They really are better than people think and I think can be a sleeper.

[Lighthouse 84]

I understand what you're saying Brewcity, but the other thing the Committee frequently does is set up potential rematches, games against another team whose coach had a connection to the other team's program, coaching feuds, etc.  They take delight in creating matchups like these.

In any event, it more than likely won't happen.  But if it does, let's hope payback's a biotch.

[brewcity77]

On another note, is there a chance Bucknell can win a game or two in the tourny? They really are better than people think and I think can be a sleeper.

Tough to say. They've played competitive with us, Villanova (before collapsing), and Boston College, all on the road. They did beat a pretty good Richmond team on the road as well. But despite winning 17/19, they've done it against weak competition, and won't really play anyone all that good before the Big Dance, if they manage to get in. Clearly they can give teams troubles, but I'm not sure it will be enough to upset a likely 2, 3, or 4 seed that they'll be paired with.

And as far as the rematches, they're very possible, but I think that would more likely lead to us playing a Missouri or Kentucky type team. If Indiana were in, I'd say them, but that's a virtual impossibility. Either way, I just want to see us in, regardless of the seed line or where we play.

[Benny B]

The problem here is, that there is a rule that states a team cannot be placed out of it's natural Region more than 3 times in 5 years. So if that is a hard and fast rule, MU almost HAS to play in the Midwest this year.

I think that rule went the way of the "Last-10" or "Last-12" metric a few years ago.  Regardless, even if MU was placed in its natural region (wherever that may be), I wouldn't be surprised if they were placed in a Tucson pod.

Chicago would be the closest first-round site for 4 teams projected to be a 4-seed or higher: UW, Purdue, Louisville & ND.   My guess is that UW or Purdue gets one of the Chicago pods and Louis or ND the other.  The only reasonable chance MU has of playing in Chicago is if Purdue ends up seeded higher than UW and is placed in Chicago.  Otherwise, both Chicago pods will contain teams MU has already played before MU is even placed... which means that unless a regular season rematch in the second round involving MU is the least objectionable of the committee's dilemmas, MU is chartering a plane somewhere.

Call it a hunch, but I think MU is going to Denver.

[TallTitan34]

3 of 5 years huh?

2010: San Jose, California (vs Washington)
2009: Boise, Idaho (vs Utah State, Missouri)
2008: Anaheim, California (vs Kentucky, Stanford)
2007: Raliegh, North Carolina (vs Michigan State)
2006: San Diego, California (vs. Alabama)

[rocky_warrior]

Call it a hunch, but I think MU is going to Denver.

I'm hoping your hunch is right!

[bamamarquettefan]

Changing the topick back from the region to getting in ...

The cushion is much smaller in Lunardi than Forecast RPI.  If we assume 3 surprise entrees not on the board from conference tournament updates, then that knocks off the last 3 in and makes Lunardi's list:

6. Marquette (top 11 seed on his S-curve)
5. Memphis

Play-in game in Dayton, OH
4. Georgia
3. Minnesota
2. Baylor
1. Boston College

Three knocked out by conference upset wins
1. Michigan State
2. Wichita State
3. Butler

Four already out even with no surprise conference tourney winners
4. Gonzaga
5. Penn State
6. Clemson
7. Oklahoma State

[drewm88]

The cushion is much smaller in Lunardi than Forecast RPI.  If we assume 3 surprise entrees not on the board from conference tournament updates, then that knocks off the last 3 in and makes Lunardi's list:

If I'm not mistaken, Lunardi throws a few in each time to simulate that.