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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] MU Offense: Only team in Top 50 of all 4 Factors  (Read 1628 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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MU Offense: Only team in Top 50 of all 4 Factors

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

As Marquette enters a brutal stretch of Big East play, the defense will have to focus on different strengths for different opponents.  

Notre Dame will try to improve to 17-0 in game at home or neutral courts by continuing to protect the ball well and getting to the line – but their weakness is they get very few offensive rebounds.  UConn can kill you on the offensive glass, but they are poor at shooting and getting to the line.  Georgetown is a great shooting team that doesn’t protect the ball well, while Cincy protects the ball well but doesn’t get to the line.

It seems every team has some offensive weakness – except one.

Marquette is the only team in the country that is in the Top 50 in all Four Offensive Factors(www.kenpom.com).  In fact, only six teams are even in the Top 100 in all four offensive categories:

Shooting (32nd best of 345 teams) – Dwight Buycks (61.7% eFG) and Jae Crowder (60.1%) have combined to hit 59% of their 2-pointers and 43% of their 3-pointers to lead a team that is 7th in the country in shooting at just under 50%.  Once you calculate Effective Field Goal Percentage (credit 1.5 shots made for every 3-pointer made), MU slips slightly to rank as the 32nd best shooting team in the country at 53.9% eFG.  With DJO heating up, watch out. Part of the great shooting percentage is the result of great passes to set up easy shots – and most of the credit there goes to Buycks and Junior Cadougan, who are among the best passers in the country (more than 25% of MU baskets are off assists from them when they are on the floor).

Protecting the ball (31st best) – Because Darius Johnson-Odom handles the ball so often the perception is that he turns it over a lot.  Not true statistically as only 13.8 of his contributions are turnovers, a very good mark for a guard.  Crowder is the 9th best player in the country at protecting the ball (7.8% turnovers), and overall MU is the 31st best team at protecting the ball with just 17.6% of their trips resulting in turnovers.  

Offensive Rebounding (36th best) – Crowder grabs more than 11% of MU misses to lead a team that gets 37.2% of its misses – the 36th best figure in the US.  While MU struggled several times on the defensive glass, the offensive rebounding has been strong.

Getting to the line (50th best) – No one wins the free throw exchange like Marquette.  MU averages a 9 point advantage from the line each game – hitting 18 of 26 free throws to an opponent’s 9 of 15 on an average night.  Jimmy Butler, Vander Blue and DJO are among the national leaders at getting to the line.  Once again MU has made more free throws (339) than they have allowed opponents to attempt (288).  

While MU has had much more trouble on defense – great at stealing the ball and not allowing free throws but mediocre at defensive rebounding and defending shots – if they continue to defend the way they have the last three games they have a chance to survive this murderous 4-game stretch and set up nicely for a tournament run.

The only other five offenses in the country that are in the top 100 in each of the four categories, with their weakest ranking in any of the Four Factors in parenthesis, are; Colorado (65th getting to line), New Mexico (99th protecting the ball), Texas (96th shooting), Villanova (100th shooting) and West Virginia (91st shooting).

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/01/mu-offense-only-team-in-top-50-of-all-4.html

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] MU Offense: Only team in Top 50 of all 4 Factors
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2011, 09:07:58 PM »
Nice write-up Bama....this is really amazing.  MU is an offensive dynamo.  People ask about "switchables"--this just shows how tough of a match-up MU is.  Who do you try to stop?  MU has five players who average 9 points or more per game...and you have to game plan for Otule too just because he can establish a post position to space the offense. Gardner and Fulce can also provide instant O...and Junior is a floor general. If Junior and Blue find an outside shooting touch, wow.  

This team can go far when they figure out team defense consistently like they have recently. BE and NCAA are all about pushing your match-up advantages--and MU can be a monster to plan for offensively.  
« Last Edit: January 20, 2011, 09:18:31 PM by Dr. Blackheart »

bamamarquettefan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] MU Offense: Only team in Top 50 of all 4 Factors
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2011, 09:28:37 PM »
Appreciate it.  I hoped this might provide the mirror to your exception explanation of MUs defense.  If we can play just above-average defense (keep stealing the ball without fouling and figure out how to box out just some of the time) then we will be lethal.  Unbelievable offense + above average defense = being good enough to beat anyone on a given day.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] MU Offense: Only team in Top 50 of all 4 Factors
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2011, 09:45:29 PM »
Great write-up, though technically Notre Dame is 15-1 in home/neutral court games. Their loss to Kentucky took place on a neutral court at Freedom Hall in Louisville.

But regardless, great look at Marquette's offense. I think what amazes me most is our offensive rebounding. I think Crowder's been a godsend in this regard.
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bamamarquettefan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] MU Offense: Only team in Top 50 of all 4 Factors
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2011, 11:47:19 PM »
That is true.  I basically go by Pomeroy and if he lists it as "semi-away" like that game I think of it as away, but you are right.  Let's hope we can be the first to win in South Bend.

Real-Time RPI says we lose by 13 even though they give us an 11-7 finish

Sagarin gives us only a 37% chance of winning even though he gives us an 11-7 finish

Pomeroy has us losing by 3 and still finishing 11-7

Sure love to win and be thinking about the possibility of 12-6
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mwbauer7

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] MU Offense: Only team in Top 50 of all 4 Factors
« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2011, 08:09:43 AM »
Great stuff, Bama. Thanks!

 

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