Double digit NCAA spots???

[MUrugger]

The season has a long way to go obviously, and surely the Dance is a long way off, but with nine teams in the AP Top 25 (will always have more cred than the USA poll), and the Warriors and the Johnnies in the also receiving votes category, could/would the committee ever consider 10 or 11 teams from the Big East?

Wouldn't that be unprecedented?  Is even 9 unprecedented?

[brewcity77]

NCAA. NCAA. It's no more digits, it's easier to type, it's what it actually is. NCAA. Why is that so hard? NC2A looks incredibly stupid, yet it is showing up more and more frequently. Are we so obsessed with shortening phrases that we have to shorten phrases that don't actually get shorter in the process?

Gack, I find NC2A to be simply disgusting, distasteful, and pointless. Maybe it's just me, but I really think all of us become a bit dumber every time it's written like that.

And yes, double digits would be unprecedented. I think the BEast got 9 once before.

[MUrugger]

Didn't want to offend anybody...

[Tugg Speedman]

Actually this week (AP) the BE has 10 ranked teams and 2 receiving votes.

3   Syracuse (8)    18-0   1,523
4   Duke (1)    16-1   1,393
5   Pittsburgh (1)    17-1   1,382
7   Villanova   16-1   1,265
8   Connecticut   14-2   1,148
16   Notre Dame   14-4   495
19   Louisville   14-3   438
21   West Virginia   12-4   266
23   Georgetown   13-5   146
25   Cincinnati   16-2   125

Others receiving votes:
St. John's 27
Marquette 7

Is this a record for a conference?  It might be.

Could the BE get 12 teams in?  Yes for this reason ...

The ACC has 1 ranked team (Duke #4) and two others receiving votes (including NC with 2 votes)
The Pac-10 has 1 ranked team (Wash #20) and two other receiving votes.

The Committee with take three teams from the ACC (instead of 6), three from the PAC-10 (instead of 4 or 5) and give the rest of those spots to the BE.  This way they are not short changing mid-majors.  No one complains when you short change another power conference.

[mu_hilltopper]

I'd be surprised if in 4 weeks there are still 10 BE teams that are ranked top 25. 

BE teams are going to be beating the snot out of eachother.  Then there's the inevitable upsets.  Pretty soon, 16, 19, 21, 23, 25 .. all lose to teams they shouldn't, separating the wheat from the chaff, and they drop to ARVs.

[wardle2wade]

Could be mistaken, but I don't think Duke is in the Big East... although it'd be interesting to see how they'd far in the BEast without Irving. 

9 teams is still a lot.

Actually this week (AP) the BE has 10 ranked teams and 2 receiving votes.

3   Syracuse (8)    18-0   1,523
4   Duke (1)    16-1   1,393
5   Pittsburgh (1)    17-1   1,382
7   Villanova   16-1   1,265
8   Connecticut   14-2   1,148
16   Notre Dame   14-4   495
19   Louisville   14-3   438
21   West Virginia   12-4   266
23   Georgetown   13-5   146
25   Cincinnati   16-2   125

Others receiving votes:
St. John's 27
Marquette 7

Is this a record for a conference?  It might be.

Could the BE get 12 teams in?  Yes for this reason ...

The ACC has 1 ranked team (Duke #4) and two others receiving votes (including NC with 2 votes)
The Pac-10 has 1 ranked team (Wash #20) and two other receiving votes.

The Committee with take three teams from the ACC (instead of 6), three from the PAC-10 (instead of 4 or 5) and give the rest of those spots to the BE.  This way they are not short changing mid-majors.  No one complains when you short change another power conference.

[Eye]

I don't know why Mugger wrote NC2A, but I'll be happy to tell you why I do.

Al McGuire referred to that organization in that manner because of the hypocrisy he saw within the organization. I see the same hypocrisy in the organization on so many levels. If it's good enough for Al and I'm still seeing the same things 40 years later, NC2A it is for me. Been doing that long before Facebook and Twitter and will continue doing so.

As for the topic at hand, BE has IMHO 11 of the best 49 teams right now (37 at large's plus 12 or so conferences will get multiple bids). The committee also says that conference affiliation does not come into play when determining bids. Reality says the BE will get somewhere between 8 and 11 this year. Record for a league is 8 BTW. Required to make a pick, I'll say it ends up being nine, with based on results to this point and projecting future results Gtown and SJU being the two of the 11 that don't make it.

[Marquette84]

The season has a long way to go obviously, and surely the Dance is a long way off, but with nine teams in the AP Top 25 (will always have more cred than the USA poll), and the Warriors and the Johnnies in the also receiving votes category, could/would the committee ever consider 10 or 11 teams from the Big East?

Wouldn't that be unprecedented?  Is even 9 unprecedented?

The Big East has not had nine teams since expanding.

Year by year, here's the list, calling out .500 teams that made it and winning teams that did not.

8 teams in 2010--all were better than .500
7 in 2009--all teams finished above .500.  Providence was left out at 10-6.
8 in 2008--Included Villanova at .500.  Syracuse at .500 left out.
6 in 2007 (Syracuse at 10-6, DePaul and WVU at 9-7 were all left out).  All others over .500 made it.
8 in 2006 (including Syracuse, at 7-9 the only sub-500 team to make the tourney from the BE in five years--but they won the BET).

Three observations:
--No team with a losing conference record has been invited at large.
--Only one .500 team has been picked as an at-large team.
--Four teams with winning records have been left out.
--Only one sub-.500 team has made it--and they had to win the tournament.

The conclusion is that a .500 Big East record typically isn't good enough--you have to be above .500.  Its 4 times more likely that you'll finish over .500 and not get in as opposed to finishing .500 and getting a bid.

Now it becomes a mathematical problem.  Collectively the league will have 144 total losses. 

The top 4 teams combined have averaged 15 total losses over five years.
The bottom five teams have averaged 66 losses over five years.

That leaves 63 losses to be absorbed by 7 middle of the pack teams.

If we spread the losses equally, that's 9 losses each--.500 records. 

If we don't spread the losses equally, we create a 9th/10th/11th place teams that are conceivably below .500 that will be easy to leave out.

I simply don't think 11 bids is realisitic, and 10 would be highly unlikely.   

Obviously the increased size of the tournament comes into play, but still, the distribution of wins and losses still suggest that we're going to have a more than five teams with losing conference records.

[MuMark]

Buzz said tonight he doesn't think the BE will get more then 9 even if 10 or 11 might deserve it.

I believe the Big 10 has had teams with losing conference records get bids so its certainly possible if a team like Georgetown, UCONN or ND(with good or great non conference resumes) finsihes below .500 in the BE they could strongly be considered. Many things are considered including computer numbers and a deep run by a bubble team in the conference tourny.

Obviously MU would have no chance in that scenario .

[Tugg Speedman]

If the BE does not get 10 or 11, and the ACC and PAC10 are down with only 1 team ranked, and the Tourney takes 68 teams this year, who gets the "extra bids" that would have gone to the ACC and PAC-10.

Does the committee take more mid-majors?  More SEC and B10?

More spots (68) and lousy PAC-10 and ACC means more BE teams.

[NersEllenson]

Certainly will be an interesting decision for the committee to make come March.  My guess is that some 9-9 teams will get in from the Big East this year.  The league has performed far too well against other conferences for less than 8 to get in.  I'd say 9 teams is a lock, 10 teams would be a stretch. 

[MUrugger]

Like a lot of things these days Eye, I just forgot why I used the NC2A tag when referring to that austere organization known for its secret deals and blockbuster TV contracts.

Surely it's got nothing to do with typing, texting, twitting, or facebooking as I am sorely lacking in the social media skills.  I'm old school; don't have a Facebook page or twitter account; but my identity isn't hidden here or anywhere else in the blagosphere and you can call me, write me, email or me or anything you want.  "Communications" major from Marquette doncha know, but back in '76 we called it Speech.

When my first response went all wacko, I thought I'd try to minimize the damages.  I've had some tough sledding on the board, and it's not worth the bother.

But you are absolutely correct.  Al's rationale and rant vs. the NCAA was the reason I started referring to them that way in the first place.  Al's observation and view was as spot on then as it is now.

5 OSU guys break the rules but are cleared to play by the NCAA so that Mr. Mayhem can sell us more more car insurance?  Brett's "For all the Tostitos" comment??? C'mon...the NCAA is all about the moola.

[brewcity77]

Like a lot of things these days Eye, I just forgot why I used the NC2A tag when referring to that austere organization known for its secret deals and blockbuster TV contracts.

Apologies, I may have went off the rails a bit, but the Louisville game has been grinding my gut to mush for days now. I'll admit I have no idea how NC2A is a protest, I wasn't born until '77 (about a month before we cut down the nets). Honest question, how does the numeral "2" point out hypocrisy? Asking both you and Eye, if either of you know.

And as I didn't know...what can I say, I was an English minor . I have a tendency to get anal when we see all the stupid text abbreviations that permeate the Internet. I'm one of those people who will usually write out everything they're thinking, and probably spend more time writing one post than most people do writing three. I've always figured if you're going to take the time to write it out, you might as well write it right. These days, it's all "txt" speak and shortening crap, and when I see something like that shortened without shortening it, well, suffice to say I just didn't get it.

[Lennys Tap]

Like a lot of things these days Eye, I just forgot why I used the NC2A tag when referring to that austere organization known for its secret deals and blockbuster TV contracts.

Surely it's got nothing to do with typing, texting, twitting, or facebooking as I am sorely lacking in the social media skills.  I'm old school; don't have a Facebook page or twitter account; but my identity isn't hidden here or anywhere else in the blagosphere and you can call me, write me, email or me or anything you want.  "Communications" major from Marquette doncha know, but back in '76 we called it Speech.

When my first response went all wacko, I thought I'd try to minimize the damages.  I've had some tough sledding on the board, and it's not worth the bother.

But you are absolutely correct.  Al's rationale and rant vs. the NCAA was the reason I started referring to them that way in the first place.  Al's observation and view was as spot on then as it is now.

5 OSU guys break the rules but are cleared to play by the NCAA so that Mr. Mayhem can sell us more more car insurance?  Brett's "For all the Tostitos" comment??? C'mon...the NCAA is all about the moola.

Al used to say that if the NCAA found an envelope from the Kentucky athletic department with $10,000 in it addressed to a recruit they'd be so outraged they would put Long Beach State on 5 years probation.

[ChicosBailBonds]

RPI Forecast is giving 11 Big East teams a chance.

MU is last of the 11 in terms of predicted RPI finish, at 55. 


http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/BE.html

On the tournament projections, RPI forecast gives us a 97% probability of getting a bid and has all 11 teams in.  That's obviously not going to happen and as more data comes in, this will sort itself out.

[Eye]

I'm not a ton older than you BC (born 71), and also have had my brains beat to mush over the past 3 days. Sitting 20 rows behind the bench during an 18-point, 5:44 meltdown will do that.

My recollection is Al started calling them NC2A because the organization itself at the time hated it.  It was his way of protest. Someone who was around in I think 1970 could probably help out on this more than I could I suppose. Had something to do as well with the NC2A wanting to send MU out of the Mideast in 70, Al telling them to stick it and going to the NIT.

The Ohio State situation stated above is the most recent really good example. The whole Cam Newton situation this fall also stunk IMHO. Bigger picture, the BCS has some incredible flaws. The decision to expand the tournament also was awful IMHO. A.J. Green's situation this fall was awful. The stuff Majerus has talked about in the past where he sustained a penalty for buying one of his players a plane ticket home for his father's funeral was awful. Expansions of seasons in general over the past few years. Bottom line, they're allegedly all about the student-athlete, but when push comes to shove, they're taking the dollars. I don't have a problem if they do that. Just be up front about it and admit it, and admit there are different rules for big-name programs and big-time players.

[MuMark]

Palm has all 11 BE teams in as of now. We are an 11.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14567148/predicting-the-2011-ncaa-tournament-field

[ChicosBailBonds]

Palm has all 11 BE teams in as of now. We are an 11.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14567148/predicting-the-2011-ncaa-tournament-field

He's basically saying we're the last Big East team in if it were held today.  Plenty of opportunities ahead to solidify these things.

[MarquetteDano]

The committee says that they don't look at conferences when deciding who makes the tourney (thus theoretically giving a conference no limit in total bids) though we all know that is bull.  I would say no way does the committee award more than nine bids to the Big East.

As HillTopper posted, the Big East will beat up on each other knocking teams resume's down.  Then, teams in the ACC and PAC-10 that finish second, third, and fourth are going to look very good to the committee since they will have solid conference records as well as some potentially big upsets.

If I was a betting man, I would say we would get nine bids.  Though, I could see a scenario where we only get eight.  I would be astounded if we got ten bids.