Marquette moves from out of tournament to No. 8 seed in RPI Forecast

[bamamarquettefan]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/bracket.html

I believe RPI Forecast gave MU a 3% chance of making the tournament a week or so ago, but now has us in as an 8-seed.

However, they still only give us a 54% chance of making it, basically saying there are still a lot of games that could go either way so their is still a big gap between celing and floor - but in most of the 1,000 scenarios they run we make the tournament with the average being an 8-seed.

They now project us to finish 54th in the RPI, with the 33rd toughest SOS and a solid 10-8 in conference with 5 wins over top 50 teams (in 15 opportunities).  Our rating would actually improve slightly if we win just one of the next three (at Pitt, ND, at Lville), but would rise a bit with 2 wins or drop a bit if we lose all 3.

[brewcity77]

We also improved on kenpom.com after the win. He now has us finishing 19-12 (10-8), but if you go game by game, we're projected to go 20-11 (11-7). The difference is the Seton Hall road game to end the season, where we were projected as a 49% loss and are now a 54% win. Our overall rating of #39 is unchanged, however.

[bamamarquettefan]

Yes, I believe we have outperformed the Pomeroy prediction by 4 points each of the last three games, which is a great trend, but I don't believe he weights at all for when a game is played, so this would basically just mean he believes we are 0.8 points per game better than we were before the three games, and he starts giving us one extra point in all future games.

Hopefully it is the team gelling and we really are 4 points better than we were early in the season, which would shift Syracuse to a toss up but make a few of the projected close wins a little safer.