Big East Wins Required to Make NCAA

[Tugg Speedman]

Last post here until next year ... KenPom projects us 9 - 9 in the conference.  That puts us on the bubble.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Last post here until next year ... KenPom projects us 9 - 9 in the conference.  That puts us on the bubble.

RPI projects us mid 70's...that's off the bubble. 

Ken Pom's 9 wins prediction in conference, only two against teams that are expected to be NCAA tournament caliber. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

KenPom ratings are the entire conference.  Since we have 16 teams, the South Florida's and DePauls drag our ranking down.  Rate the top 12 (number of teams in the ACC and B10) and we are way ahead of everyone else.

That is why we can have 11 teams in the top 50 and be ranked 3rd whereas the ACC only has 4 and is ahead of us.  They have "better crappy teams" than the bottom of the BE.

Side Note, KenPom has us winning against WVU tomorrow by 1 point (52% chance of winning).

Correct, but that's also why it's not the "toughest conference" since the entire conference has to be factored in, not just the top teams.  The league doesn't just play the top 12, they play 15 of the 16 teams in the conference, the good and the crappy.

[brewcity77]

You must not be paying attention so let's try this again.

2010
ND and G-town made it with a 10 - 8 BE record

Notre Dame: Won 23 games overall, including their last six in Big East play that included wins over ranked Pittsburgh twice and Georgetown.

Georgetown: Won 23 games overall, including non-conference wins against Butler, Washington, and Duke, along with two top-five conference wins over Villanova and Syracuse

2009
WVU made it in with a 10-8 record, Prov also was 10-8 and did not

West Virginia: Won 23 games overall, including a non-conference road decimation of Ohio State. This team also probably needed the BEast tourney semifinal run that included a win over #2 Pitt.

Providence: Won 19 games overall, no significant non-conference wins, and only two wins over ranked teams.

2008
Nova made it at 9-9, Syracuse did not at 9-9 (and much as been written that this was one of the biggest snubs ever)

Villanova: Won 20 games overall, barely got in as a 12-seed, probably the least impressive BEast resume to make the tourney, though to their credit they made the Sweet 16.

Syracuse: Only won 19 games, only 2 wins over ranked teams, and a fairly weak non-conference schedule. Also lost to Villanova in what was probably seen by the committee as an elimination game.

Bottom Line
Since the BE went to 18 games in 2008, every team with 10 wins or more has made the NCAA, except Providence and a robbed Syracuse.  Are we this year's Providence?

First, that's a blatant lie. This robbed Syracuse team you speak of only won 9 BEast games. And of the teams you list, no team with fewer than 20 overall wins made the NCAA tournament. If we go 10-8 with a first round loss, that leaves us at 19-13 overall. You really think that will get us in? 19 wins, no significant non-conference wins...hmm, that does sound very similar to that Providence team. If we get the extra win and go 20-12, that puts us at about the same place as that Villanova team. Most likely a couple wins over ranked teams, no significant non-conference wins, and biting our nails on Selection Sunday as we hope and pray for a 12 or 13 seed. I'm not saying that 11 wins can't get us in, I'm just saying that looking at our resume thus far, it's no guarantee. And frankly, I don't think that given the 10-11 wins you're talking about you can even remotely compare us to those teams like Notre Dame, Georgetown, and West Virginia that came in with 23 wins under their belt. Like it or not, total wins is a stat the committee will look at. It's no guarantee, but it's damn important, and without 12 wins, we aren't cracking 20.

Lastly, the current rankings have 7 BE teams ranked (5 in the top 10) and two others getting votes.  KenPom has 11 BE teams in the top 50 (MU is the 11th team at #42)

Okay, so we're in 11th? Should that give us confidence? When was the last time a single conference placed 11 teams in the Big Dance? How about 10? I realize this will all change as the conference season goes on, but we've got ground to make up. And look at the current non-conference resumes of the teams we're competing with for those last bids. West Virginia has four top 100 wins and one in the top 20. Notre Dame has four top 100 wins and one in the top 20. UConn has three top 50 wins and one top 10. St. John's has two top 100 wins and one top 50. Even Seton Hall, Cincinnati, South Florida, Rutgers, and Providence have at least one top 100 win each. Outside of DePaul, there isn't a single team in the Big East that doesn't have two wins that are better than our best win. That win is over Bucknell (126) and we only have two wins in the top 200. Reality is that for the committee, we're probably the 13th or 14th best Big East team based on what we've actually accomplished, and we need to climb 4-5 places decisively in the conference pecking order if we want a bid.

Here is the Truth
9 wins = 50/50 getting in the NCAA, if not, a favorite to win the NIT
10 wins = in the NCAA
11 wins = in the NCAA, 50/50 on being ranked
12 wins = in the NCAA and ranked
13 wins = #4 seed

Here is the Truth, Ron Killings (since you needed to capitalize it).

9 wins = No chance in hell of making it with an 18-14 record and no significant non-conference wins.
10 wins = Bubble team that will be sitting on eggshells with a 19-13 record and no non-conference resume to boost them up. Think Providence.
11 wins = 50/50 on being in, depends on who we beat and where
12 wins = In the NCAA comfortably
13 wins = #4 seed (hey, we agree on one!)

As much as you want to say that 10 is a guarantee, it's not. You have to account for the non-conference wins and total wins of the other teams in question. Remember, this thread assumes that we are losing our first BEast tourney game. If we have 9 or 10 wins, there's a very good chance that goes down as a bad loss right before Selection Sunday. If we have 11 wins, it's still 50/50 that it's a bad loss. And total wins makes a difference. While we have no bad losses, we don't have a single top 100 victory in non-conference. We only have one top 150 victory. And the seven wins we have that are 200+ aren't enough to give us a gaudy win total that helps the committee overlook the caliber of opponent.

This thread asks a simple question. How many Big East wins are required to make the NCAAs? How many do we absolutely, no questions asked, have to have in order to get into the Big Dance. Well, we'll need more than 20 total victories, we'll need at least 3 against ranked opposition, and we'll need some road wins. The number that guarantees all of those things is 12. Which is why I maintain that despite the history of our conference, anything less becomes a roll of the dice.

[chren21]

Brew, thanks. That's exactly what I was trying to across. You're right on

[MuMark]

If we win 10 games our RPI won't be in the 70's.

RPI predictions are just a waste of time. I saw one today that predicted that UW's would be 56 and Central Florida's would be 9....lol.

FWIW MN got in last year with an RPI of 64....We were a 6 seed with an RPI of 54....ND 6 seed with a 52.

Let it all play out. Nobody has any idea what it will or won't take. Most years recently its been hard to even find 64 worthy teams...this year they need 68.

I have no idea if we will get in our not but if win 10 I like our chances.

Anyone who thinks it will take 12 or 13 needs to put down the crack pipe......

[bamamarquettefan]

This year has set up almost exactly like last year - four early close, heartbreaking losses including two very impressive showings on TV (Duke and Vandy, projected final top 10 RPI by RPIForcast).  Looking impressive in the close losses puts teams much higher than their RPI rating would indicate.

Last year MU eventually started winning the close games, and finished the year with a No. 50 RPI and a No. 6 seed, indicating the selection committee had them at least 26 spots higher than their RPI position.

If MU goes 10-8 in the conference this year which would likely include at least 4 wins against Top 50 RPI, they are projected to have the 54th best RPI in the country - basically just as good as last year since there are 4 more spots for invites - and games like Vandy and Duke would move MU easily in again.

Fewer wins but with a bigger field and a MUCH tougher SOS in an even better conference.

[Tugg Speedman]

First, that's a blatant lie. This robbed Syracuse team you speak of only won 9 BEast games. And of the teams you list, no team with fewer than 20 overall wins made the NCAA tournament.

Syracuse finished 2008 with a 55 RPI, one of the lowest ever for a team not invited.  As MuMark noted above, MU and ND were 6 seeds with similar RPIs.  Now if you want to say RPI is meaningless you'll get no complaint from me.  But, you'll have to take it up with the committee as they use it.

You really think that will get us in? 19 wins, no significant non-conference wins...hmm, that does sound very similar to that Providence team. If we get the extra win and go 20-12, that puts us at about the same place as that Villanova team.

...

This thread asks a simple question. How many Big East wins are required to make the NCAAs? How many do we absolutely, no questions asked, have to have in order to get into the Big Dance. Well, we'll need more than 20 total victories, we'll need at least 3 against ranked opposition, and we'll need some road wins. The number that guarantees all of those things is 12. Which is why I maintain that despite the history of our conference, anything less becomes a roll of the dice.

I don't think anyone sees the question as "how many wins so that we have enough of a cushion to choke on, get upset in, the first BE tourney game and still get in."  This appears to be the question you're answering.

I think most think the question is "how many wins, and then do what should be EXPECTED in the BE tourney, to get in" ....

If we get 10 BE wins and sitting on 19, we should be favored in the first game of the BE tourney.  Do what we are suppose to do in game 1 and we get 20 overall wins and we are in.

9 BE wins and we are 18 -14.  The first round BE tourney we should/can win.  Finish 19 and 15 and we are a bubble team.  But with three extra spots (taking 68 teams this year) and the ACC down, look for the BE to get 9 or 10 teams (versus the customary 8).  We are 50/50 in making the tourney.

[chren21]

Another reason I agree with brew is I just don think the committee will take more than 8 from the BE.

[brewcity77]

Syracuse finished 2008 with a 55 RPI, one of the lowest ever for a team not invited.  As MuMark noted above, MU and ND were 6 seeds with similar RPIs.  Now if you want to say RPI is meaningless you'll get no complaint from me.  But, you'll have to take it up with the committee as they use it.

Last year both the #55 and #56 RPI teams missed the tourney in Mississippi State and Virginia Tech. The year before, #35 St. Mary's and #40 Creighton both missed the Big Dance. In 2008, RPI #32 Dayton and #33 Illinois State missed the tourney. And I'm pretty sure Missouri State had the #20 RPI and got snubbed in 2005.

I don't think anyone sees the question as "how many wins so that we have enough of a cushion to choke on, get upset in, the first BE tourney game and still get in."  This appears to be the question you're answering.

I think most think the question is "how many wins, and then do what should be EXPECTED in the BE tourney, to get in" ....

Uhh, where did it say "do what should be EXPECTED" in the fine print? The question is how many Big East wins will it take? At that rate, you might as well say "if we take care of business in the non-conference" which would mean at least 2 wins...oh, wait, we didn't get those. At this point, looking only at the upcoming conference schedule, it will take 12 Big East wins. 11 may be enough. 10 most likely won't be enough. 9 will not be enough. The number that guarantees an NCAA berth is 12. That's all I'm saying. Anything less and you're rolling the dice on Selection Sunday.