Forecasting the Bucks

[Henry Sugar]

Dave Berri takes a look at the Bucks

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/fear-the-deer-and-forecasting-the-nba/.

Prediction is about 46 wins and placement in the second tier of NBA teams.

Behind the Bulls, though. 

[GGGG]

They also forecast Portland to have 59 wins and the second best record in the NBA.  Is that realistic??

[martyconlonontherun]

Dave Berri takes a look at the Bucks

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/fear-the-deer-and-forecasting-the-nba/.

Prediction is about 46 wins and placement in the second tier of NBA teams.

Behind the Bulls, though. 

I think the Bucks are a legit 50-win team, but don't disagree with 46. All depends how Gooden/Maggette fit in and if you keep the energy from last year.

[Henry Sugar]

They also forecast Portland to have 59 wins and the second best record in the NBA.  Is that realistic??

Additional info is here

http://hickory-high.com/2010/10/10/my-franken-win-predictions-for-2010-2011/

Depends...  Do you think Oden stays healthy for 1200 min this season?  A big part of it for Portland is the addition of Marcus Camby.

Google spreadsheet info contained here

FWIW - the model Berri and company use do not rate Wesley Matthews very favorably (avg is 0.100 and he is rated at 0.86; worth 3.5 wins this season)

POR           Min   WP48   Wins
L. Aldridge             2675   0.073   4.07
Luke Babbitt   784   0.015   0.25
Nicolas Batum   1932   0.200   8.05
Jerryd Bayless   1325   0.026   0.72
Marcus Camby   2072   0.324   13.99
D. Cunningham   960   0.082   1.64
Rudy Fernandez   1020   0.150   3.19
Armon Johnson   380   0.000   0.00
Wesley Matthews   1950   0.086   3.49
Andre Miller           2032   0.126   5.33
Patrick Mills           438   0.045   0.41
Greg Oden           1200   0.299   7.48
Joel Pryzbilla   320   0.176   1.17
Brandon Roy   2528   0.192   10.11
                           59.89

[dsfire]

Wow, 13.99 wins for Camby?  I can't speak what it would be in their model, but looking at basketball-reference's records for last season that'd put him the third-most valuable player in the NBA behind LeBron and Durant.

[SacWarrior]

March 13th - Sacramento Kings coming to town

Got my tickets and my REKE DMC shirt ready as we speak

[shiloh26]

Yeah, the Bucks are hard to forecast.  Bogut being healthy is huge though.  If Jennings learns from how guys started guarding him the second half of last year, they could be good again.  Also, this is the crucial year of a Scott Skiles coached team... we'll see if they get sick of him like the Bulls did or not.

[MUBurrow]

Yeah, the Bucks are hard to forecast.  Bogut being healthy is huge though.  If Jennings learns from how guys started guarding him the second half of last year, they could be good again.  Also, this is the crucial year of a Scott Skiles coached team... we'll see if they get sick of him like the Bulls did or not.

Agreed, and to that end, I find some of the free agent pickups odd given this worry -- Namely Maggette.  I will be absolutely shocked if Maggette is getting major minutes by February for any reason other than increasing trade value.  I think Skiles and Maggette will hate each other, and will result in relegating Corey to the end of the bench.  (I acknowledge that this is essentially parroting a Bill Simmons point, but thought it at the time as well - I have always sort of compared Maggette to Larry Hughes)