3/6 11pm bracketology

[jesmu84]

even after the ND loss, lunardi still has us in. although we're not considered a "lock" we are at the top of the S-curve. seems to me we're likely in, even with a loss to uconn/st johns - unless lots of upsets in the smaller league championships.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/5477/bracketology-as-of-11-p-m-saturday

[chapman]

We're a terrible team.  11 Big East wins don't matter because losing to DePaul cancels them all out.  If we don't win the Big East Tournament and get the automatic bid we're as good as out.  The committee will obviously see things differently than Lunardi because they will look for every opportunity to not put us in. 

[TallTitan34]

Lunardi finally took out UConn, but how the hell is Illinois still in.

[chapman]

Lunardi finally took out UConn, but how the hell is Illinois still in.

This shows how wizzeak the field is.  The few predicting some scenario where we actually get snubbed need to look at the teams below us and realize how their resumes are so bad they just don't compare.  And also realize how some of them play each other in what will be elimination games.  Some need 3 more wins to have a realistic shot.  In the most farfetched scenario three of the 11 "Out" teams would get in...and they would have to defeat four of the 10 "In" teams below us to do it.    

This isn't a bad "pecking order" if you look at the teams.  Some might be too high, and given how bad their resumes are, we're not one of them.  So many teams on the verge of being off this list or even further down...

-SHU would need to win three or four in the BET.  Along the way they would beat ND.
-USF has to beat DePaul, Georgetown, and Syracuse to maybe jump ahead of us if we were to lose, but probably still no.    
-Wichita State is out if they lose to UNI.
-Washington and ASU will play in the Pac 10 semis if they both make it.  Loser is out.
-Dayton would have to beat GW, Xavier, and probably Richmond to maybe, but probably not get ahead of us if we were to lose.
-URI has to beat St. Joe's, St. Louis, and probably Temple to maybe get ahead of us if we were to lose.
-The Badgers can deal what would probably be a knock-out blow to Illinois tomorrow.  
-Minnesota needs to make the Big Ten championship game for any shot.  
-If Florida beats Alabama, UF and Mississippi State play each other in what would be an elimination game.
-Ole Miss will likely get whipped by UT.
-UAB and Memphis would play in the CUSA semis.  A win against Marshall or Tulsa and then a loss doesn't put them ahead of us on anyone's list.
-St. Mary's remains below us in the pecking order if they lose to Gonzaga.

Another look at the resumes of bubble teams that don't hold a candle to ours courtest of the CBS Bubble Watch.  We're not discussed as we're in the Safe List.  http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bubble?tag=pageRow;pageContainer

[jesmu84]

agreed chapman. we might not be a "lock", but in the eyes of most prognosticators, we're in the upper portion of the "in" bubble teams. of the first 10 or 15 to be left out, they have to do a TON of work to get in and knock us down, even with a loss on wednesday. odds, by a lot, favor us of making it at this point regardless of the BET outcome.

[HoopsMalone]

Same record as Louisville in the conference. Smoked Louisville head to head.  They are locks and we are not?

[Aughnanure]

Same record as Louisville in the conference. Smoked Louisville head to head.  They are locks and we are not?

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Beating Syracuse twice is what really secures them, though i agree with you since they have been so inconsistent this year. When they have gotten beaten, they have been smoked but for some reason RPI doesn't take into account how close a game was and is unfortunately the most influential computer ranking used by the selection committee.

[jesmu84]

Same record as Louisville in the conference. Smoked Louisville head to head.  They are locks and we are not?

this is one of the things i have trouble understanding. louisville certainly has some really good wins - sweeping syracuse, for starters - but also have some bad losses. comparing resumes, you'd think the committee would like us more because we're a tough beat no matter the opposition.  personally, i would rather have a team in the tournament who is more consistent, although hasn't quite beaten a top team lately. as opposed to a team capable of beating a syracuse, but losing to a st johns.  seems the committee would rather include teams based on how good they've shown they can be, as opposed to how bad they've shown they can be.

[77ncaachamps]

Somehow I got a feeling the Zags are NOT going to win the tourney this year. Count another WCC team in.

[NotAnAlum]

Over the years of watching this happen I'm pretty confident.  The committee places a lot of weight on the regular season and where teams finish in their conference.  They don't seem to place as much weight on conference tournament victories (like an early out).  There is no way they are going to skip MU and take 2 (or maybe 3) teams that finished below us.  Heck South Florida even thinks they still have a chance.  All those people who back in January said "well maybe they'll take into consideration our close losses".  I don't think its a close enough call for that to even factor in BUT if it did MU has that going for them.

[bilsu]

Same record as Louisville in the conference. Smoked Louisville head to head.  They are locks and we are not?

Both Marquette and Loiusville have significant weaknesses. For MU they have trouble with big teams. Louisville has trouble with quick teams eg. St John's and MU. Overall Louisville has a much better chance of going farther in the tournamnet. They have a higher RPI and strength of schedule and have quality wins. At this point we do not have a marque win and if we do not win on Wednesday we put our bid at great risk. The Big East will get 8 bids if Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville and MU all win on Wednesday. At this point any of the teams below that level will have to win the tournament to get in. I think we should expect the Big East to get 7 bids and we do not want to be the team  that losses on Wednesday. I think Georgetown should worry also.

[babytownfrolics]

Both Marquette and Loiusville have significant weaknesses. For MU they have trouble with big teams. Louisville has trouble with quick teams eg. St John's and MU. Overall Louisville has a much better chance of going farther in the tournamnet. They have a higher RPI and strength of schedule and have quality wins. At this point we do not have a marque win and if we do not win on Wednesday we put our bid at great risk. The Big East will get 8 bids if Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville and MU all win on Wednesday. At this point any of the teams below that level will have to win the tournament to get in. I think we should expect the Big East to get 7 bids and we do not want to be the team  that losses on Wednesday. I think Georgetown should worry also.

I don't agree, I think the Big East will get 8, even if all four lose on Wednesday.  The only worry is a bunch of teams stealing bids in the conference tournaments that weren't going to make it as an at large, and that would have to happen about 10 times across the country.

[DCWarriors04]

The only way Marquette doesn't get in is if there are a TON of unexpected upsets next week in the conference tourneys...North Carolina winning the ACC, Iowa or Indiana winning the Big 10, Iowa State the Big 12, etc, etc, etc. Winning 9 out of there last 11, including 3 straight on the road in OT says a lot.

[bilsu]

Iowa or Indiana I am not worried about. I am worried about Northwestern or Michigan winning it. Big 10 should get Mich St, Purdue, UW, Ohio St and either Illinois or Minnesota.  Iowa, Indiana, Penn St., Michigan and Northwestern would have to win the tournament to get in. Illinois and Minnesota need one or two wins.

[Sheriff]

Lunardi finally took out UConn, but how the hell is Illinois still in.

Perhaps today UW will address this concern today by avenging their home loss to IL.   A very rare situation to actually pull for Bucky.