Big East 9 Bid Quest

[BostonBaller]

Just say this article posted seems they think marquette is a lock in!
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/news/story?id=4955741

The question seems to bubble up every year: Can the Big East put a record nine teams into the NCAA tournament? With just a week left in the regular season and as many as 10 Big East teams possibly needing dancing shoes, the question begs a closer look.

Currently, five Big East teams are locked into the bracket: the Syracuse Orange, Villanova Wildcats, West Virginia Mountaineers, Pittsburgh Panthers and Georgetown Hoyas. The Louisville Cardinals look to be in decent shape after beating the Connecticut Huskies on the road Sunday. The Marquette Golden Eagles' position seems solid as well; they've improved their RPI from 78 to 49 since Feb. 1. The Cincinnati Bearcats and Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- who took down Georgetown in D.C. on Saturday -- also stand astride the bubble with UConn, giving the conference a shot to secure a record ninth invitation to the dance.

But look at the schedule to close the regular season, and you will see that this process will be an awkward one in which toes will be stepped on and dreams will be dashed. Notre Dame, Connecticut and Cincinnati have no margin for error, and the Irish and Huskies clash Wednesday.

The rest of the Big East bid picture isn't much better. Although Louisville and Marquette look like solid shots at the moment, their meeting Tuesday likely will prove the difference between a clinched bid and clenched teeth when the Golden Eagles meet the Irish in the regular-season finale.


The Big East bubble
The competition is tight in the Big East for the last few tourney bids.

Team name W-L RPI SOS W-L vs. RPI top 50 ASM
Connecticut Huskies 17-12 44 2 3 10.33
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 19-10 68 60 3 9.13
Cincinnati Bearcats 16-12 58 17 4 7.70
Marquette Golden Eagles 19-9 49 67 3 11.96
Louisville Cardinals 19-10 32 5 3 11.85


Step 1 for these teams is to win their head-to-head matchups. Our ASM power metric pegs UConn and Marquette as winners in this week's early games. If that happens, the Irish likely will be out of luck, as their current RPI of 68 remains far above our threshold of 50. Wins over West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Georgetown help, but in the past 15 years, only two teams have made the field with an RPI of 70 or worse.

The Irish need to keep winning to improve their mark. If they reach the low 60s, those key wins may be enough. In five of the past eight seasons, at least one team with an RPI over 60 has made the field. Last season, both the Boston College Eagles and Arizona Wildcats pulled the trick, with prime victories over top competition making the difference.


Of the teams in the above chart, Louisville is best positioned inside the bracket, and although a loss to Marquette and another to Syracuse in the finale might put the Cardinals in trouble, a win in the Big East tournament likely would stop the bleeding and keep them in the field.



Even if you count Marquette and Louisville among the invited, the odds are still long for a nine-bid scenario because of the head-to-head matchups. The best hope lies with two big wins for Cincinnati; the Bearcats face Villanova on Tuesday and Georgetown on Saturday. With 12 losses, Cincinnati is just one loss shy of our fatal total of 13. A strength of schedule of 17 will act as a buffer if Cincy loses in the Big East tournament, but if they lose before then as well, they will have 14 (without winning the Big East tournament). Considering only two teams have made the tournament in the past six years with 14 losses (Arizona in 2008 and NC State in 2005), the odds of the Selection Committee admitting such a team as an unprecedented ninth Big East bid are smaller than the odds of Irish coach Mike Brey wearing a necktie on the sideline. Particularly when other non-Big East teams such as Mississippi State are charging into the bracket.



Marquette and Louisville probably can afford a split to close the season, and Notre Dame and Connecticut likely will battle for one bid, but the key to the nine-bid scenario is Cincinnati. If the Bearcats pull two upsets, there's a very good chance the Big East will set a bid record. But without those wins, the intraconference schedule likely will make it impossible.



Mike Hume is an associate editor for ESPN Insider.