Regular Season Predictions - weekly update (Cracked Sidewalks)

[Wade4Life]

Last week a post on cracked sidewalks was posted predicting the outcome of the last 6 games.

"The Pittsburgh game is our easiest remaining game of the season. Better turn out on Thursday."

Crackedsidewalks contributor gave MU a 76% chance of winning the game.

I posted that I thought this was the HARDEST game remaining for the warriors. I think a lot of people, including some people on the team, overlooked last nights game and it showed. Might of been the worst showings I have seen in a long time by the Blue and Gold. Better TURN OUT Sunday if we want to make the tournament. The Cinncy game just got about 10x harder.

[Hards Alumni]

so, just to be clear, this is a pat yourself on the back thread?

okay, cool.

[mu_hilltopper]

Sugar can speak for himself, but he has some mathematical model that he uses to dump out those figures .. the model said the Pitt game was the easiest "on paper."    He probably should have couched his "easiest" commentary in those terms.

[Henry Sugar]

From the original post.

Even though they're highlighted, don't get hung up on the win percentages ever. A better measure is to look at the predicted margin of victory (or loss). In other words, a 24% chance of victory is less scary than a prediction of a six point loss.

and

Finally, these predictions are a snapshot in time as of today. Personally, they seem a bit bearish. Next week they'll almost certainly look different.

But hey... good for you.  high five!

[reinko]

Last week a post on cracked sidewalks was posted predicting the outcome of the last 6 games.

"The Pittsburgh game is our easiest remaining game of the season. Better turn out on Thursday."

Crackedsidewalks contributor gave MU a 76% chance of winning the game.

I posted that I thought this was the HARDEST game remaining for the warriors. I think a lot of people, including some people on the team, overlooked last nights game and it showed. Might of been the worst showings I have seen in a long time by the Blue and Gold. Better TURN OUT Sunday if we want to make the tournament. The Cinncy game just got about 10x harder.

Douche-chill.

[Wade4Life]

fair enough, that was a douche bag comment and stupid pat on the back.

Just saying that he might want to recalculate his formula.

I will refrain from commenting on predictions, as they are only predictions.

[Skatastrophy]

Yeah Sugar, your math was wrong!  My calculations tell me that you prefer the naughty bits of men over the clearly superior naughty bits of women!  Oh, and my formula has be pre-recalculated so it is now 100% accurate on the subject of naughty bits!

Sugar, I should be able to read your predictions on CS and then not have to watch the games.  Don't these players know that basketball is a math contest and not a sport?  Sheesh!

[Henry Sugar]

It's not my formula.  The win percentages use the same approach that is done by Ken Pomeroy

http://www.kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation/

It's all based on Pythagorean Expectation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

And specifically, the log5 approach initially popularized by Bill James

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

....

All that I do is tinker with the data to create a different set of inputs to the predictions than Pomeroy.