vs. Pitt - NCAA Resume Ramifications

[Benny B]

Win or lose against Pitt tonight, RPI is bound to rise by a few spots tomorrow.  Side by side, the potential MU resumes tomorrow morning:

                    WIN              LOSS
Conference     8-5 (4T)         7-6 (7)
Overall           17-8              16-9
RPI                ~54               ~56
SOS               high 50s        high 50s
vs. top 50       4-6               3-7
vs. top 100     5-6               4-7
Sig Wins        GU, X, Pitt       GU, X

So the effect on RPI tonight is minimal, but 4-6 vs. Top 50 & 3 signature wins looks a heck of a lot better than 3-7 and only two on the resume... that's the biggest reward from an MU win tonight.


For the RPI crowd:

By virtue of playing Pitt, our RPI percentage will rise tonight regardless of whether we win or lose.  Pitt has a better record than our overall opponents right now and a stronger SOS (which helps the opponents' opponents' side of our RPI). This is not to say our place in the RPI standings will necessarily rise, but it's a pretty good bet that it will.

MU's RPI is currently .575 (#62).  By my estimate, MU's RPI rises .0085 with a W, and rises .0031 with a L.  The former would be good for #54T in the RPI as of this morning and the latter would be good for #56.

[ChicosBailBonds]

We are now 70th in the RPI.  Remember, how losses hurt more in the RPI.

http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2010/rpi


Predicted RPI is now at 68

[chapman]

10-8 will NOT do it any more.  Anyone who thinks so needs to take off the blue and gold glasses.  The two bad losses and lack of quality wins, bad RPI, it just doesn't add up to earning an NCAA berth.  Hopefully we're ready for the road stretch, as the negative margin of error is more true than ever.  Start with the next game and get back on the right track Sunday.

[ChicosBailBonds]

10-8 will NOT do it any more.  Anyone who thinks so needs to take off the blue and gold glasses.  The two bad losses and lack of quality wins, bad RPI, it just doesn't add up to earning an NCAA berth.  Hopefully we're ready for the road stretch, as the negative margin of error is more true than ever.  Start with the next game and get back on the right track Sunday.

10-8 didn't do it for Providence last year.  It all depends who the 10 wins are against, and right now only one of them is against a team in the first 6 positions.

Need to win the last two home games and probably 2 of 3 on the road.  No easy chore.  Really blew a golden opportunity and with the DePaul loss, we have no mulligans left.

[schubert33]

10-8 didn't do it for Providence last year.  It all depends who the 10 wins are against, and right now only one of them is against a team in the first 6 positions.

Need to win the last two home games and probably 2 of 3 on the road.  No easy chore.  Really blew a golden opportunity and with the DePaul loss, we have no mulligans left.

I couldn't agree more..

[GregClausenForever]

We need to win out.

We still make it at 11-7 with a BE tourney win or two. 

If we finish 10-8, we'll need two wins in the BE tourney against upper-half teams.  And we'll need to hope that the selection committee factors in "close losses."

[ecompt]

I think last night was the death knell. There's no way we're going to sweep the three road games, and a split with Louisville and ND is likely. 3-2 the rest of the way leaves us in the NIT unless we can win at three BE  tournament games.

[Benny B]

We are now 70th in the RPI.  Remember, how losses hurt more in the RPI.

http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2010/rpi


Predicted RPI is now at 68

This is why I hate RPI.  I'm not a mathematician, but I did pretty well in Trig and Calc, and figured that RPI can't be that difficult.  So I read and re-read how RPI is calculated, do the calculations, and even judging for error and variation, I still can't make an appropriate prediction.  The marginal effect of a home loss last night (which accounts for only 25% of the value) should have been negated by Pitt's winning percentage and opponent's winning percentage (which combines for 75% of the value).

Ugh.  This is why math teachers are so wired I guess.  All these numbers are enough to drive someone insane.

[willie warrior]

Bank it! After that loss and a three game road trip, the dance is gone, and we are NIT bound.

And there is absolutely no excuse for not giving Jr. some of the midget's minutes. Way to strategize the future Buzz.

[nyg]

Bank it! After that loss and a three game road trip, the dance is gone, and we are NIT bound.

And there is absolutely no excuse for not giving Jr. some of the midget's minutes. Way to strategize the future Buzz.

Junior has played a total of 19 minutes since he returned.  Last four games and five of last six were DNP.  Seems a waste. 

[chapman]

Bank it! After that loss and a three game road trip, the dance is gone, and we are NIT bound.

And there is absolutely no excuse for not giving Jr. some of the midget's minutes. Way to strategize the future Buzz.

It is disappointing that the year was wasted for Cadougan.  The "if he wants to play, let him play" argument falls short when he doesn't actually play.  And if he isn't ready to play he shouldn't have had the redshirt taken off.  Forget the "maybe he doesn't want a fifth year" argument.  It's not like he has to stay for a fifth year if he redshirts.  Maybe he doesn't want a second, third, or fourth year either.  Selling that fifth year option for 19 minutes this year is a rip-off.

As far as plans for this year, keep playing with the players that give us the best chance to win.  I don't think our resume is good enough for a 10-8 finish to get us in.  I think we need to go 4-1, and if not do some serious damage in the BET and it will be tough.  But it's not time to pack it in.  Cut Mo and Cubillan's minutes for Cadougan if we land in the Not In Tournament and truly have nothing to play for.

[JohnThomasisAngry]

Ramifications? Did someone mention ramifications?

[reinko]

Bank it! After that loss and a three game road trip, the dance is gone, and we are NIT bound.

And there is absolutely no excuse for not giving Jr. some of the midget's minutes. Way to strategize the future Buzz.

Willie glad to have you back on the board after the 5 game winning streak ends!  One of the more insightful and positive posters here.

[MerrittsMustache]

Marquette is definitely lacking in the "signature wins" department but they can make up for that by knocking off some of their fellow bubble teams in the next couple weeks. Cincy, Louisville, and to a lesser extent Seton Hall and ND are all on the bubble. If MU can knock them off, with other factors being relatively equal, it would likely bump MU ahead of them for tourney consideration...though the selection committee isn't always known for its logic.

The committee also looks at how a team is playing late in the season (last 12 games). If MU puts a 9-3 or even 10-2 (loss to Pitt and in BET) on the board, it would be hard to leave them out.

The hardest pill to swallow is that if MU misses the tourney, it will have come down to 3 games: Nova, at WV and at DePaul. If MU had hung on in just 2 of those games, they'd be sitting pretty.

[d6]

4-1 the rest of the way gets us in for sure.  3-2 would require some work in the BET.  of course, it also depends how we get our victories.  definitely would like to see wins versus cincy and louisville to bolster our position ahead of those two.......