ESPN Bubble Insider

[reinko]

Little Marquette love on the front page of espn.com right now...

Anyone with an Insider account care to summarize?

[Jacks DC]

Thanks for the heads up.  Great photo of Lazar here.  The article looks at adjusted scoring marging (ASM), which measures margin of victory in conjunction with a team's strength of schedule, making it a decent predictive power rating.

Based on this, Marquette, Seton Hall and Louisville have the best shot at cracking the tournament.

Also notes that the Golden Eagles have performed surprisingly well this season, particularly considering their front-stacked conference schedule. MU now gets the benefit of a softer schedule going forward, with ASM projecting the Golden Eagles to enter the Big East tournament on an 11-game winning streak. That would easily ice an at-large bid, it might even earn Marquette a top-four seed and an invaluable double-bye in the Big East tourney.

[NersEllenson]

Not from the same article but from a blog on the NCAA Mock Bracket, that invites 20 media members, and simulates the real selection process to a T..see below for interesting quote from the article which can be found here:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/tag/_/name/2010-ncaa-tournament-mock-selection-committee

Does the committee care about tempo-free? Kind of, but not really. Ken Pomeroy's invaluable efficiency ratings are explicitly listed in the "resources" section of our committee materials, alongside Sagarain ratings and Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com. But they're listed last, and in our committee, which is made up of media members who write about basketball numbers for a living (and not, you know, conference commissioners and athletic directors), Ken Pomeroy's stats came up maybe once or twice. (They did play a role in the committee recognizing Marquette was this year's most unlucky team, but we might have reached that committee Pomeroy-or-no.) In other words, while the burgeoning tempo-free statistics movement has made major inroads in college basketball media, but it doesn't have much of a place in the committee room. Sad smiley face.

[Gwaki]

By now you've no doubt noticed that the bubble is proving particularly vexing in the Big East. Seven teams reside on the fringe of the field, and since all of them have similar résumés and most have a big win to their credit, like Louisville's upset over Syracuse on Sunday, there's not a whole lot to differentiate the teams just yet.

We could just let things sort themselves out over the next few weeks, but where's the fun in that? If you're the type who likes to unwrap your presents ahead of schedule, then this glimpse into the bubble is for you.


While the Big East bubble picture may seem as scrambled as a Dali painting, one way we can bring it into focus is with adjusted scoring margin (ASM).

ASM measures margin of victory in conjunction with a team's strength of schedule, making it a decent predictive power rating. Teams with a higher ASM have a better shot at winning games between now and the tournament.

A glimpse at ASM, combined with a look at a team's remaining schedule, should tell us which of the seven-pack of Big East bubble teams has the best shot at breaking into the field. The final column, ASM advantage, lists the number of games remaining on a team's schedule against opponents with a lower ASM.

Team   ASM   Games Remaining   ASM Advantage
Marquette Golden Eagles   13.6   6   6
Louisville Cardinals   13.3   6   3
Seton Hall Pirates   10.1   6   4
Connecticut Huskies   10.1   6   3
Cincinnati Bearcats   9.0   6   2
Notre Dame Fighting Irish   8.7   5   0
South Florida Bulls   7.0   6   2
With five teams locked into bids from the Big East -- Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pittsburgh -- you have to figure there's a good shot for three more squads to make the field. Given our look into our ASM-based future, Marquette, Seton Hall and Louisville have the best shot at cracking the tournament.

The Golden Eagles have performed surprisingly well this season, particularly considering their front-stacked conference schedule. Marquette's first four conference games pitted them against West Virginia, Georgetown and Villanova (twice). Buzz Williams' bunch now gets the benefit of a softer schedule going forward, with ASM projecting the Golden Eagles to enter the Big East tournament on an 11-game winning streak. Not only would that easily ice an at-large bid, it might even earn Marquette a top-four seed and an invaluable double-bye in the Big East tourney.

On the flip side, Notre Dame looks done. A tough schedule, a lackluster RPI (77) and an uncertain future for the Fighting Irish's star player, Luke Harangody, means the Irish are the longest shots to make the tournament. ASM differential predicts them to drop all six of their remaining games, just like they did against St. John's on Sunday.

In this context, we see UConn finishing its schedule with a 3-3 mark. While that's far better than their 1-5 record over their previous six games, it would give the Huskies a record of 17-14 and a sub.-500 mark in conference play. Their No. 4-rated strength of schedule could save them, as we've seen it help teams like Stanford and Arizona in previous seasons, but without a good showing in the Big East tournament, the future appears bleak in Storrs.

A 2-4 finish isn't going to get it done for South Florida, and Cincinnati, currently in precarious position with an RPI of 49, may slide out of contention with a similar mark. Seton Hall's profile is not the strongest (RPI of 56), but its tough schedule (15th in the nation) and an overall record of 18-11 going into the conference tournament give the Pirates a good shot.

A .500 record to close the regular season may not seem like much, but it could very well put Louisville into the tournament after its upset win Sunday. The Cardinals' RPI shot up to 31 after the win, and a 3-3 close would leave the Cardinals one W shy of 20 and would likely keep their RPI well within the top 50. It's not a sure thing, particularly with bad losses to Western Carolina and St. John's, but the Cardinals' scenario is now considerably brighter than the one they faced when they entered the Carrier Dome.

[mklenn]

i loved reading something positive on our team but the fact that they are predicting we will win out scares me...

[Daniel]

Yeah - winning out - whew.  Let's win the next one!
GO MARQUETTE!!

[reinko]

If we win out, we will be a 5, not the 12.

[Henry Sugar]

I will lay 15:1 odds we do not win out. 

[ErickJD08]

If we win out, we will be a 5, not the 12.

Big time...  If we win out, we will be the third or fourth in the BE and should be in the top 20.  And if we want to get silly, think about winning the BE tourney... 2 or 3 seed.  A guy can dream.

[Coleman]

Big time...  If we win out, we will be the third or fourth in the BE and should be in the top 20.  And if we want to get silly, think about winning the BE tourney... 2 or 3 seed.  A guy can dream.

I say we still get no higher than a 4 if we run the table, including the BET

[GoldenWarrior]

I say we still get no higher than a 4 if we run the table, including the BET

Agreed, no higher than a 4 and even that would be a stretch IMO.

[Benny B]

If MU wins out and wins the BE Tourney, I would say a 3 seed is within the realm of possibility depending on how well the other teams currently in the 2-4 seed range finish.  However, a 2-seed is next to impossible (unless 10 of the top 15 completely tank the rest of the season).

[NersEllenson]

Fun to speculate what would happen if MU ran the table, but..I don't think any of us realistically thinks that will happen.  I almost hope it doesn't.  I'd love to get into the tourney as a 12 seed, win our first game and play (most likely the 4 seed) in our region in Round 2.  The worst thing that could happen would be for us to be seeded 8 or 9 - though I can see the NCAA liking us in that position, as we could be a legitimate threat to a Number 1 seed in Round 2..which somehow, if MU won..would be a major Cinderalla story/headline grabber that this tourney loves (NCAA) loves..