What does MU still need to realistically contend for a BE championship?

[Doris Burkes Thong]

Say a year or two from now? Thoughts please.

[Henry Sugar]

Great question.  Honestly, one of the best questions I've seen lately.  I have no clue, but it's really a thought-provoking question.

We should start with...  the scholarship table.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?page=8

and then the overall Pomeroy statistics for each BE championship winner in the past four years

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2009&c=BE  (2009)

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2008&c=BE (2008)

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2007&c=BE (2007)

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2006&c=BE (2006)

[Doris Burkes Thong]

Great question.  Honestly, one of the best questions I've seen lately.  I have no clue, but it's really a thought-provoking question.

We should start with...  the scholarship table.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?page=8

Yeah, that scholly table is a real helpful tool actually. Man, that roster next year(crossing my fingers on no transfers, season ending injuries, etc.) looks really stacked. There should be plenty of high level talent to compete at the 1-4 spots that's all I know. I think it will come down to how much Mbao and Otule develop this year and what Buzz potentially brings in for another big on whether MU can contend for the BE crown next year. The 5 spot is the key IMO.

[Henry Sugar]

I think differently (instead of roster spots)

for example, Louisville won last year with only three players taller than 6'8, and only two of them got significant minutes.  Were they an aberration?  Georgetown won in 2007 and 2008, and UConn won in 2006, so... maybe production from the 5 matters.

What is clear is that to realistically contend for a BE championship the team should be a Top 5 Pomeroy team.  Only once in the last four years has a championship team not been top 5.  Even to finish second usually requires being at least Top 10 (last year there were three teams in the top 5 Pomeroy from the BE).

Where I think this needs to go next is to look at what goes into being elite, roster makeup of elite teams, clues from Buzz' experience, and then what implications that might have for Marquette's roster. 

<thinking>

[Blackhat]

a 6'9" defender/rebounder would help.  another top ranked guard and a top center is probably what it would take to be NC level assuming buzz can coach.

[Marquette84]

Yeah, that scholly table is a real helpful tool actually. Man, that roster next year(crossing my fingers on no transfers, season ending injuries, etc.) looks really stacked. There should be plenty of high level talent to compete at the 1-4 spots that's all I know.

The first key to winning a championship is to recruit players who are good enough to be Big East starters from day one.   Second is to keep a core of them playing together for two to three seasons.

Of the regular starters for the four championship teams since 2006, just two players--Geogetown's Jessie Sapp and UConn's Marcus Williams--had "developed" into Big East starting material. Every other starter for a championship team earned that spot as a freshman.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Of Big East champions, nearly every regular starter was ready to start the year they arrived on campus.  

There is no "developing" players into a championship team.  You recruit a group of three or four players who are freshman starters, you add one or two more who start the following year, and that year or the year after that you're a championship team.

With the help of statsheet.com, I reviewed the starting lineups for the past four champions, and looked at the history of who started, and how early in their career they did so.  

2006 UConn: Calhoun rotated starts among six players--five of them started their first season with the team.
Rudy Gay 1 Letter Freshman in 2005--started 26 of 31 games that year
Marcus Williams* 2L Freshman in 2004, started 0 of 16 games that year.
Denham Brown  3L Freshman in 2003 - started 28 of 33 games that year.
Josh Boone  2L Freshman in 2004--started 37 of 38 games that year.
Hilton Armstrong 3L  Freshman in 2003--started 22 of 32 games that year
Craig Austrie  0L Freshman in 2006--started 24 of 34 games that year


2007 Georgetown: Of the five regular starters, 4 of them started as frosh:
Green  2L Started all 32 games as a frosh in 2005
Hibbert  2L Started 17 of 32 games as a frosh in 2005
Wallace 2L Started all 32 games as a frosh in 2005
DaJuan Summers 0L Started 34 of 37 games as a frosh in 2007
Jessie Sapp  1L Did not start any games as a frosh in 2006


2008 Georgetown:  
Hibbert 3L--see above
Wallace 3L --see above
Summers 1L --see above
Sapp 2L--see above
Austin Freeman 0L  Started 23 of 34 games as a frosh in 2008

2009 Louisville:  Six regular starters, five did so from the start.
Terrance Williams 3L Started 21 of 34 games as a frosh in 2006
Sosa  2L Started 32 of 34 games in his first season in 2007
Clark  2L Started 5 of 32 games started as a frosh in 2007
Smith  2L Started 10 of 34 games in 2007
Samardo Samuels 0L Started all 37 games as a 2009 freshman.
Andre McGee 3L started 12 games as a frosh in 2006


I'm sure this will surprise some people and rattle their core beliefs.  We've hear things like "this player can be good in a year or two" or "that player just needs a year or two to develop" so frequently that one would think it's the norm that championship teams are made of players who needed a year or two of bench time before assuming a starting role.  But this is wrong.

I think it will come down to how much Mbao and Otule develop this year and what Buzz potentially brings in for another big on whether MU can contend for the BE crown next year. The 5 spot is the key IMO.

Based on past championships, this is wishful thinking (unless Mbao is actually ready to be a Big East starter this year).  

Even then, next year we may still be too young to compete for a championship.

Let's assume DJO and Buycks both start this year and Otule is the starter over Mbao.  Next year's starting lineup:

2011 Marquette:
Butler 2L Did not start as a transfer soph in 2009
DJO 1L- Starter as a transfer his first year in 2010
Buycks 1L - Starter as a transfer his first year in 2010
Otule 2L: Did not start as a frosh in 2009
Blue - 0L - Starter his first year in 2011

This possible 2011 lineup just doesn't compare to the other champions.  We would have more players that did not start, and far less overall experience. A 2011 championship doesn't look good.  Not to say it can't happen, but we would have a less experienced, less talented team than the four prior champions.

[mug644]

What is clear is that to realistically contend for a BE championship the team should be a Top 5 Pomeroy team.  Only once in the last four years has a championship team not been top 5.  Even to finish second usually requires being at least Top 10 (last year there were three teams in the top 5 Pomeroy from the BE).

That's true but it is sort of a chicken-egg argument, as the BEast is consistently one of the toughest conferences in the country. So, whoever sits atop the BEast standings has beaten some top teams, and will naturally be near the top of Pomeroy.

To me, what MU needs to realistically contend for a BEast championship are two, somewhat related, things:

First, an inside game that can be relied upon, both for steady, solid output on both offense and defense. We have had, at best, serviceable inside players since Robert Jackson, with only Barro being even a bit notable.

Speaking of Barro, the second need is consistency. Barro (and thus the inside game overall) couldn't be counted on for regular, consistent play. He'd look great one night, then fade into obscurity the next. Same with the overall play of the team over the last few years. The Three Amigos plus Lazar, were able to cover for each other, but (with the exception of Matthews' play at the beginning of last year, and a stretch of McNeal's games last year) it was often hot or cold. I might actually argue that Lazar has been the most steady, consistent player over the last few years, and hopefully his style (taking things as they come, not forcing) will rub off on the newer players. (Then again, I worry that he might feel the burden of being THE got-to guy this year, and might force things more than he should; I inferred from a couple of the posts about MM that he seemed to do that a bit at the scrimmage, but I'm not about to judge him yet.)

So, quality inside play and consistency. That's my thinking. (Though the info about being a starter is certainly insightful.)

[GGGG]

a 6'9" defender/rebounder would help.  another top ranked guard and a top center is probably what it would take to be NC level assuming buzz can coach.

Yeah, I was going to say a beast at the 4 would be best.  A knock down shooting guard would help.  I think we might actually be OK at center.  Otule is going to likely end up being a three year starter at center and if we can get defense and rebounds from him, we'll be fine with a strong 4.  Offense would be a bonus.

[Lennys Tap]

The first key to winning a championship is to recruit players who are good enough to be Big East starters from day one.   Second is to keep a core of them playing together for two to three seasons.

Of the regular starters for the four championship teams since 2006, just two players--Geogetown's Jessie Sapp and UConn's Marcus Williams--had "developed" into Big East starting material. Every other starter for a championship team earned that spot as a freshman.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Of Big East champions, nearly every regular starter was ready to start the year they arrived on campus.  

There is no "developing" players into a championship team.  You recruit a group of three or four players who are freshman starters, you add one or two more who start the following year, and that year or the year after that you're a championship team.

With the help of statsheet.com, I reviewed the starting lineups for the past four champions, and looked at the history of who started, and how early in their career they did so.  

2006 UConn: Calhoun rotated starts among six players--five of them started their first season with the team.
Rudy Gay 1 Letter Freshman in 2005--started 26 of 31 games that year
Marcus Williams* 2L Freshman in 2004, started 0 of 16 games that year.
Denham Brown  3L Freshman in 2003 - started 28 of 33 games that year.
Josh Boone  2L Freshman in 2004--started 37 of 38 games that year.
Hilton Armstrong 3L  Freshman in 2003--started 22 of 32 games that year
Craig Austrie  0L Freshman in 2006--started 24 of 34 games that year


2007 Georgetown: Of the five regular starters, 4 of them started as frosh:
Green  2L Started all 32 games as a frosh in 2005
Hibbert  2L Started 17 of 32 games as a frosh in 2005
Wallace 2L Started all 32 games as a frosh in 2005
DaJuan Summers 0L Started 34 of 37 games as a frosh in 2007
Jessie Sapp  1L Did not start any games as a frosh in 2006


2008 Georgetown:  
Hibbert 3L--see above
Wallace 3L --see above
Summers 1L --see above
Sapp 2L--see above
Austin Freeman 0L  Started 23 of 34 games as a frosh in 2008

2009 Louisville:  Six regular starters, five did so from the start.
Terrance Williams 3L Started 21 of 34 games as a frosh in 2006
Sosa  2L Started 32 of 34 games in his first season in 2007
Clark  2L Started 5 of 32 games started as a frosh in 2007
Smith  2L Started 10 of 34 games in 2007
Samardo Samuels 0L Started all 37 games as a 2009 freshman.
Andre McGee 3L started 12 games as a frosh in 2006


I'm sure this will surprise some people and rattle their core beliefs.  We've hear things like "this player can be good in a year or two" or "that player just needs a year or two to develop" so frequently that one would think it's the norm that championship teams are made of players who needed a year or two of bench time before assuming a starting role.  But this is wrong.


Based on past championships, this is wishful thinking (unless Mbao is actually ready to be a Big East starter this year).  

Even then, next year we may still be too young to compete for a championship.

Let's assume DJO and Buycks both start this year and Otule is the starter over Mbao.  Next year's starting lineup:

2011 Marquette:
Butler 2L Did not start as a transfer soph in 2009
DJO 1L- Starter as a transfer his first year in 2010
Buycks 1L - Starter as a transfer his first year in 2010
Otule 2L: Did not start as a frosh in 2009
Blue - 0L - Starter his first year in 2011

This possible 2011 lineup just doesn't compare to the other champions.  We would have more players that did not start, and far less overall experience. A 2011 championship doesn't look good.  Not to say it can't happen, but we would have a less experienced, less talented team than the four prior champions.

Some good analysis and I agree that champions today are built around guys who can play from day one. I disagree with you leaving Maymon off our 2011 starters and also expect him to be a sometimes starter and big contributor this year. Also, even though Butler was technically a non starter in his first year he probably logged as many or more meaningful minutes as Clark, Smith or McGee did as Louisville freshmen. Still, we'll probably come up short in 2011 - 2012  should be the year we battle for the title - especially if we can bring in a Tarik Black (or Pinkston) in 2011.

[OhioGoldenEagle]

I tend to disagree with the fact that a championship team needs guys that start from day1.  Looking at Crean's team in 2003, it had a great blend of stars and role players.  Wade of course was the star, Diener and Novak turned into NBA players but were young at the time and not game changers, and then R.Jackson and Merritt who were solid down low.  The stars just seemed to align with Wade and quality players that didn't step onto campus and immediately make an impact. 

That being said, while the odds are astronomically slim that one of the current or near future players will play at Wade's level, I think that there is a solid core of top notch talent in the '10/'11 classes that can potentially blossom into a legitimate Big East contender in 3 years.  Continuing my argument from above......I feel that the core of Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue, Jamail Jones, Erik Williams, and Jeronne Maymon is talented enough, that if Buzz can find the right pieces (ie. solid defender and rebounder at the 4, quality backup PG that can shoot and defend, and solid center play from even O'Tule and Mbao) to surround these guys, there is a great possibily that MU will contend for a Big East title in the next 3 to 4 years. 

[chapman]

 Next year's starting lineup:

2011 Marquette:
Butler 2L Did not start as a transfer soph in 2009
DJO 1L- Starter as a transfer his first year in 2010
Buycks 1L - Starter as a transfer his first year in 2010
Otule 2L: Did not start as a frosh in 2009
Blue - 0L - Starter his first year in 2011

Or...

Cadougan - Starter in his first year
Blue - Starter in his first year
Jones - Starter in his first year
Maymon - Could be a starter in his first year
Mbao - Could eventually become a starter in his first year

Maybe not likely there will be five, but I'd bet on at least three of the above starting in their first year before only one.

[Ari Gold]

A healthy Junior along with Blue will do wonders. I think Mbao will be a key. If he can develop into a great Big man, MU will contend. But I agree with the comments about a good defensive 4 spot.

The team has the depth I believe to be able to go far in the BE and NCAA next year and beyond. Just look at who'll be coming off the bench. There is the potential for five+ bench players to play quality time in 2010-11. That's not something I ever remember MU being able to do before.

Buzz keeping this quality recruiting up ever off season will really solidify MU as a contender every year.  And the thing to remember about comparing our guys to past champions is the level of talent in the rest of the league. The Big East is replacing a lot of talent this year that went to the NBA. The playing field is pretty even and I think MU has a chance to get a huge step up on the competition with good recruiting.

[Big Daddy 84]

2 words-  Tarik Black

[Marquette84]

Or...

Cadougan - Starter in his first year
Blue - Starter in his first year
Jones - Starter in his first year
Maymon - Could be a starter in his first year
Mbao - Could eventually become a starter in his first year

Maybe not likely there will be five, but I'd bet on at least three of the above starting in their first year before only one.

That's a fair lineup as well--although in 2011 would include three first year players and two second year players. I would think that lineup would be a championship contender for 2012 and 2013. 

Compare the experience levels with Georgetown 2006 (T4th) versus the championship years of 2007/2008.