[Cracked Sidewalks] Pushing some Optimism - Marquette's Path to the Sweet Sixteen

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Pushing some Optimism - Marquette's Path to the Sweet Sixteen

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

I'm a pretty pessimistic (and often wrong) person when it comes to Marquette basketball.  It's weird, because I'm generally optimistic overall.  My epiphany came shortly after the end of the Syracuse game.  After Syracuse went up by three points early in overtime, I sat down for the rest of the game and said, "I don't believe in these guys.  This team never wins anything."  My wife derided me afterwards, saying, "You are no fun to watch games with... hiding behind your numbers and pessimism.  Be more optimistic."  Of course, she was right.  Lots of times I look at the numbers and see a low probability of winning percentage and then get ready for a loss.

Needless to say, when I first looked at the numbers for the opening round matchup, they were kind of daunting.  The pessimism was rearing its ugly head.  After all, Utah State has a lot of strengths and not many weaknesses (taken from Pomeroy's site).  But you already know that, and seriously, if you aren't familiar with their team by now, just take a look at the posts from the past few days and any one of the links below.  The Aggies are #13 in the country at offensive efficiency.  This is a concern because defensive eFG% is our achilles heel.  They don't foul much at all, they grab a lot of defensive boards, and they protect the ball great.

Even the weaknesses for Utah State (not forcing turnovers, three point defense) are not areas that Marquette can easily exploit.   Throw in the fact that the matchup is a virtual road game for Marquette, and the concerns are compounded.

And yet, I'm wildly optimistic about this game and Marquette's chances to make the Sweet Sixteen.  Here are some reasons to stay positive.

1.  As referenced in the article linked by Tim, conventional wisdom is picking Utah State to upset Marquette.  Roll into Friday's matchup thinking like a hedge fund.  I love betting against the conventional wisdom.

2.  We're due for some good luck.  After last year's Stanford game, and then the close games against teams like Villanova and Syracuse, it's time to have the charm on our side. As Pudner pointed out, a team that gets unlucky with the bounces tends to have things even out.  If you don't think luck evens out, I point you to Georgetown and Notre Dame (ha!).

3.  I'll admit to being concerned about Utah State.  They have some definite strengths.  However, we are the best team that Utah State has played all year.  Think about that.  Remember what we did to Northern Iowa?  Also consider that Marquette played 12 ranked teams this year, ten of whom are playing in the 2009 NCAA Tournament.  Where do you think Utah State falls on that list.

4.  Remember this picture of Barro?  Multiply it by four and add it to one of the most significant classes in recent Marquette history.  Our guys are NOT going out like that tomorrow.

5.  Jesus wants Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen.  Not really, but a friend of mine has been saying it all week and I think it's great.  Of course, remember that Marquette plays on a Friday, so gimme some of that filet o fish.

At the end of the day tomorrow, it'll be the Aggies that want to Pray.

Tipoff is scheduled for 11:30am CDT from the Taco Bell Arena in Boise.  Bring it on!

6.  For the stats purists, here are the keys to victory

• Stop them from making shots (eFG% of 52% or less) - Their most efficient offensive players are Gary Wilkinson (eFG% of 60.1%), Tai Wesley (eFG% of 60.5%), Tyler Newbold (eFG% of 56.2%), and Jared Quayle (eFG% of 55.5%).  Their least efficient players are Brady Jardine (eFG% of 33%) and Pooh Williams (eFG% of 52%)
• Force turnovers (TO% of 30% or higher), which is about 8 more turnovers than they average.  Most likely to turn the ball over are Jardine (TO% of 20%), P. Williams (19.9%), and Wesley (18.6%).  Least likely to turn the ball over are Newbold (TO% of 10.7), Wilkinson (13.6%), and Quayle (16.2%)
• Make shots (eFG% of 58% or higher), which is slightly higher than average
• Combining multiple Recommendations
  a.    As many offensive rebounds as possible (OR% of 45% or higher)
  b.    Protect the ball (TO% of 10% or less)
  c.    Prevent offensive rebounds (Utah State OR% of 30%)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/03/pushing-some-optimism-marquettes-path.html

[NavinRJohnson]

So if I'm hearing you correctly, you're saying if MU plays good defense and rebounds the ball, they'll win. I've been sayong that all year. What are all those numbers in your post?

[Henry Sugar]

I covered this already before the UConn game.  The recommendations are not the same for every game. 

They'll be different for the Missouri game and then the Memphis game too.  Because Marquette is going to the Sweet Sixteen.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=12897.msg115695#msg115695

[MuMark]

Utah State is almost exactly the same defensively as UWM according to Pomeroy.

The only team in the Big East that is worse then they are on D is Depaul.

Now that doesn't mean we can't lose but if we execute on offense they are going to have a hard time stopping us.

They don't block shots so if we can get into the lane we should be able to convert or get to the line.

I have not seen them play much but I assume they will zone us. I just don't think they can cover us man to man.

[mu_eyeballs]

I don't know you any more Sugar...this ray of sunshine is not the man that I made a double or nothing bet with...but I like the new guy

[mviale]

love the optimism - looking forward to see your post on how we defeat Mike Anderson's squad with one point guard.

[Pardner]

And, I am going to Cubs Spring Training in Phoenix.  Where are the West's Sweet 16 games?  Phoenix.  Your S16 tix will be waiting for you, Sugar.  This is the Year!

Anyone know if the Cubs open up in Detroit?

[rocky_warrior]

Remember what we did to Northern Iowa?  

Yes, and I called my GF frantically with 5 min left asking how Purdue could be so crappy.

Relax.  We're winning tomorrow.  After that, I have a long drive ahead of me to get to Boise.

[NYWarrior]

love the optimism - looking forward to see your post on how we defeat Mike Anderson's squad with one point guard.

co-sign

[Henry Sugar]

love the optimism - looking forward to see your post on how we defeat Mike Anderson's squad with one point guard.

Offensive rebounds

We're also one of the top teams in the country at protecting the ball.  Even with James out, we still take really good care of the ball.  Missouri forces turnovers at a rate of 25%.  We only turn the ball over at a rate of 16.5%.  Since the start of the BE, we've only been close to 20% (average) four times.  Nova#1 (23.7%), SJU#1 (23.2%), SHU (21.6%), and SJU-BET (19.8%). 

Our next closest was @Louisville with a rate of 17.3%.  Louisville forces turnovers at a rate of 23.6%.  So even on the road, against another top team on forcing turnovers, without James, we were still much better than an average team.

Missouri's press won't bother us.  But let's not worry too much about the Tigers.  I'm ready to watch us blow the doors off of Utah State.

[Dry White Toast]

step away from the keyboard and tell us what you did with Henry Sugar.

[NYWarrior]

step away from the keyboard and tell us what you did with Henry Sugar.

He was gobbled up by the FluxCapacitor and returned as anti-matter.  In effect, a polar opposite of his previous state of pessimism.

I'll keep Doc Brown locked up until after the game.

[Henry Sugar]

No guys.  It's Jesus.

Jesus wants us in the Sweet Sixteen!

[AlumKCof93]

I share both the optimism and the pessimis.  I snuck out to a bar to watch the final minutes of the Nova game.  While watching the game, I told the bartender that while Marquette is up, they somehow will find a way to lose this game.  This team seems to have found a way to lose close games regardless of the circumstances for the past several yrs.
But I don't think it will come down to the final minutes today.  I think we match up well with these guys and move on.  Now if it does come down to the final minutes, I may not be able to watch . . .