BET

[ATWizJr]

Call my optimism unwarranted, but, I like our draw in the BET.  We should be able to get past G'town or the Johnnies, we've beaten 'Nova and should have beaten the 'Ville. 

Not saying it will be easy, just possible.

[Henry Sugar]

your optimism is unwarranted.

I give us only a slim chance of beating Georgetown.  Not only is it very, very difficult to beat a team three times in one season, but who will stop Chris Wright? 

Now I'm reduced to rooting for St. Johns to win so that MU will face an easier opponent.  yay?

Honestly, I don't think MU wins another game this season.

[mu_hilltopper]

http://www.youtube.com/v/KX5jNnDMfxA&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x006699&color2=0x54abd6&border=1

[GooooMarquette]

I give us only a slim chance of beating Georgetown.  Not only is it very, very difficult to beat a team three times in one season...

Not saying you're necessarily wrong, but have you ever seen stats to back up the oft-repeated statement about beating a team three times in a season?

[Hards Alumni]

no no, just say it. 

HS is wrong...

it is an oft quoted 'rule' but not true statistically.

[Henry Sugar]

Actually, Spiral did the analysis last year.  The numbers are freakishly consistent... and now I'll need to amend my statement because of the data (dammit!).  Conventional wisdom is that it's hard to beat a team three times in one season, and the numbers say that's /sorta/ true.  If a team has already beaten another team twice, their chances of winning the third game are 70%.  If a team meets three times, the chances of a sweep are ~42%.

So I guess it's not that hard to beat a team three times in one season.  However, it is hard to beat a team three times when you are playing without Dominic James.

2007
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=7045.msg58118#msg58118

2006
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=7045.msg58214#msg58214

[Chicago_inferiority_complexes]

If a team has already beaten another team twice, their chances of winning the third game are 70%.  If a team meets three times, the chances of a sweep are ~42%.

Not sure I understand that. You seem to be writing the same sentence with two different stats. If a team meets three times with the possibility of a sweep, hasn't it already beaten the other team twice?

[Joe Thompson]

Marquette beat Seton Hall three times last season.

[muwarrior69]

Are any of the first round games on TV? I have Direct TV and don't see any listed for today.

[Henry Sugar]

Spiral did the numbers.  He's a lot better at excel than I am.  Here's the way I understand his work.

If a team meets three times, a sweep happens 42% of the time.  Meaning that the result is 1-2 or 2-1 58% of the time.

If a team meets, and one team has already won the first two games, the sweep happens 70% of the time in that third game.  Therefore, the raw numbers would suggest that MU is more likely to defeat Georgetown than to lose.  Shame on me for perpetuating poor conventional wisdom.

That said, the whole "three times in one season" argument isn't my key point.  My point is that I do not expect us to beat GU a third time this year... not without DJ.  Furthermore, I don't expect us to win our first round game. 

We're rooting for a favorable matchup.  great.

[ATWizJr]

Sugar, you don't think that MU will win another game this season?  I'll take that bet.

[Marquette Mama]

Are any of the first round games on TV? I have Direct TV and don't see any listed for today.

Apparently no TV coverage today -- including Direct TV Full Court.  Found this on newsday.com:

First round of Big East Tournament will not be on TVThis is extremely weird for a conference built on TV as much as any in college sports history, but . . . Tuesday's first round of the Big East men's basketball tournament at the Garden will not be televised.

ESPN's contract did not obligate the Worldwide Leader to televise the extra games when the conference voted to expand its tournament from 12 teams to 16, so ESPN understandably passed.

You can watch on www.bigeast.org, though.