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Author Topic: MSU and Mizzou  (Read 2696 times)

HoopsMalone

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MSU and Mizzou
« on: February 23, 2009, 11:56:35 AM »
Just say the ESPN rankings have us at ten behind Michigan State and Mizzou.  I think we would take care of both of those teams, and don't see where their big wins are that get them ahead of us.  I guess taht would be too many Big East Teams with single digits rankings before the first Big Ten team.  I guess we can show what we are made of this week.
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MR.HAYWARD

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2009, 12:59:25 PM »
Well Michigan State apparently deserves to be there based on their home losses against Penn Stte and Northwestern, or any of there other impressive showings against teams Like UNC and Maryland...that in teal as they got smoked!!   seriously their two most impressive wins on the year are home games versus Kansas and texas...two barely top 25 teams and throw in a collection of bad losses....I guess that earns you a #9 ranking!!  WoW!!  Absolutely incenses me as does the Memphis who has beaten 1 top 50 team and is like 1-5 against the top 50.  Now they do have about 20 wins against the top 200 though!
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mugoose

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2009, 01:17:24 PM »
msu is my fav team other than MU, of course. i follow them closely. They DO NOT BELONG IN THE 10! maybe the top 15, but that is a maybe.

the game yesterday against Wisco was so brutal to watch.
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HoopsMalone

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2009, 01:21:49 PM »
Marquette, Villanova, and Clemson are more deserving in my opinion than Memphis, MSU, and Mizzou.  I mean, who would you rather play?  Then I would put Wake 11 right in the same category as MU, Nova, and Clemson.  I don't think any of these four teams would have a problem with Mizzou, MSU, or Memphis.  The AP poll is a little bit more just. 
 
It matters because I would rathe be a 2 seed than a 3 seed!
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MUsoxfan

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2009, 01:24:19 PM »
Quote from: MR.HAYWARD on February 23, 2009, 12:59:25 PM
  Absolutely incenses me as does the Memphis who has beaten 1 top 50 team and is like 1-5 against the top 50.  Now they do have about 20 wins against the top 200 though!

I was half-listening to College Basketball Final last night on ESPN while playing solitaire on my phone.  The big argument was "Does Memphis deserve a 1?".   The one clown suggested that they definitely do because they're so great, they're the only team that absolutely cleans up on their conference every year.      I would argue that Memphis would never deserve more than a #3 seed unless they go out and schedule 8 top level non-conf games every year. 
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tower912

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2009, 01:27:28 PM »
MSU is my second favorite team also, being equidistant from the two campuses and having a brother who is a Sparty alum.    MSU's best may be better than our best, simply because they have multiple agile bigs.   They don't usualy play at their best, however, and MU does.    They are ranked higher because they are the first place B10 team and have a long history under Izzo of being a top program.    So they get the helium/halo/name recognition boost.    I think we beat them on a neutral court.   They're no Dayton.  ::) ;)    If we take care of business over the next 2 1/2 weeks, we will get a seed equal to theirs.    Missouri's schedule is a joke.  
« Last Edit: February 23, 2009, 03:02:00 PM by tower912 »
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GGGG

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2009, 01:29:26 PM »
Quote from: MUsoxfan on February 23, 2009, 01:24:19 PM
I was half-listening to College Basketball Final last night on ESPN while playing solitaire on my phone.  The big argument was "Does Memphis deserve a 1?".   The one clown suggested that they definitely do because they're so great, they're the only team that absolutely cleans up on their conference every year.      I would argue that Memphis would never deserve more than a #3 seed unless they go out and schedule 8 top level non-conf games every year. 


To be fair, the question was "will they *get* a one," and the answer was yes because they are likely going to win out while those in front of them are likely to lose at least one more time.
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HoopsMalone

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2009, 01:33:57 PM »
Pitt has tough games against us, Providence, and UConn

UConn has us, Pitt, and Notre Dame

UNC has Duke

Louisville has us and West Va.

Oklahoma is gonna get a one seed.

I will be mad enough if Memphis gets a better seed than Marquette, but what would fans at those schools think if Memphis beats them for a one seed as well.
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willie warrior

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2009, 03:00:47 PM »
there is no way MU would get a 1 seed in the Big Dance, unless we run the next 4 and go deep in Conference Tourney. There is way too much love out there for Pitt, UCONN and NC, any ACC Team that wins the tourney, as well as Oklahoma.

Memphis will likely keep winning as they own their mid major conference.
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Ball2003

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2009, 03:26:41 PM »
Quote from: willie warrior on February 23, 2009, 03:00:47 PM
there is no way MU would get a 1 seed in the Big Dance, unless we run the next 4 and go deep in Conference Tourney. There is way too much love out there for Pitt, UCONN and NC, any ACC Team that wins the tourney, as well as Oklahoma.

Memphis will likely keep winning as they own their mid major conference.

There IS a lot of love for Pitt and UConn, so if we beat them (and Louisville) to win the Big East, we will be a #1 seed. I don't think that will happen, but it is possible.
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Hards Alumni

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2009, 03:31:32 PM »
If we win the regular season BEAST, we are a number 1, I would bet my house on it.
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CTWarrior

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2009, 03:35:14 PM »
If you think the pollsters don't like us, the computers HATE us.

InsideRPI - we are number 21

Adjusted Scoring Margin  - number 23

Sagarin Overall - 18

Sagarin Predictor - 22

Pomeroy - 20

I don't think the computers have a grudge against us, but they universally think we're around number 20.  We want respect, we have to earn it over the nex two weeks.

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HoopsMalone

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2009, 05:09:15 PM »
All of our numbers will go up pretty significantly in the next two weeks because our strength of schedule will sky-rocket.

As far as the 1 seeds, I think Oklahoma has one locked, the winner of the regular season BE, and the winner of the regular season ACC.  Then there is one spot up for grabs, so who knows who will get that.  Could be Memphis
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rocky_warrior

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2009, 05:21:12 PM »
Quote from: CTWarrior on February 23, 2009, 03:35:14 PM
Pomeroy - 20

Glad you brought this up - and I'm sure Henry Sugar will hate this, but....

I think this year has proved to me that the offensive/defensive ratings system that Pomeroy has spent a decade or so developing is completely useless.  I like Ken, and I think he's got some good theories, but he still needs to tweak his algorithm.

As of today his ratings have us as #22.

Georgetown is one above us at #21 ? ? ?   We beat them home and away.

West Virginia is #6 ? ? ? ? ? ?   They just recently have some good wins over 'nova and ND at HOME, but prior to that, nothing terribly impressive.

I could add others (like - Memphis #1??).  But the rankings of conference foes are easier to compare.  Despite all the complexity of Pomeroy's calculations, it still doesn't seem to be any better than the RPI.
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bilsu

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2009, 09:18:01 PM »
If Memphis gets a number one seed, then that is the bracket I want to be in.
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Henry Sugar

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2009, 09:40:54 PM »
Quote from: rocky_warrior on February 23, 2009, 05:21:12 PM
Glad you brought this up - and I'm sure Henry Sugar will hate this, but....

I think this year has proved to me that the offensive/defensive ratings system that Pomeroy has spent a decade or so developing is completely useless.  I like Ken, and I think he's got some good theories, but he still needs to tweak his algorithm.
....

I could add others (like - Memphis #1??).  But the rankings of conference foes are easier to compare.  Despite all the complexity of Pomeroy's calculations, it still doesn't seem to be any better than the RPI.

Why would I hate that statement?  Except for the part that is overblown hyperbole, of course.  ;)

Pardner just sent me an email this morning.  He thinks Pomeroy tends to overweight strength of schedule, and I think that applies here.  For a lot of my calculations, I'll either use only top 100 opponents or conference play only.  I think that removes a lot of the SOS issues.

For example, using conference play only, I calculate Marquette as #3 in the BE.  They're solidly behind Pitt/UConn and just barely ahead of UL.  WVU comes in at #6 in the BE and GU is #8 (barely ahead of ND and Prov).

More reasonable, yes?
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rocky_warrior

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Re: MSU and Mizzou
« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2009, 10:28:03 PM »
Quote from: Henry Sugar on February 23, 2009, 09:40:54 PM
Why would I hate that statement? 

Well, I just figured since you used his numbers for game analysis much, you'd hate it if you found out they were completely useless  ;D

Quote from: Henry Sugar on February 23, 2009, 09:40:54 PM
Except for the part that is overblown hyperbole, of course.  ;)

Perhaps a bit strong, but at this point in the season, I would expect the numbers to have worked themselves out - and they apparently haven't.  With so many of the top 20 significantly out of place (WVU, UCLA, KU), quite frankly I can't give it much respect.  I'll revise -- mostly useless - better?

Quote from: Henry Sugar on February 23, 2009, 09:40:54 PM
using conference play only, I calculate Marquette as #3 in the BE.  They're solidly behind Pitt/UConn and just barely ahead of UL.  WVU comes in at #6 in the BE and GU is #8 (barely ahead of ND and Prov).

More reasonable, yes?

Yes, and I believe you're correct that SOS is weighted too highly.  Or perhaps, SOS is calculated incorrectly  ;)
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