Predictions - BE Total Wins

[Henry Sugar]

I don't have time to do this justice on CS, but here is the current view of the predictions of wins for the rest of BE play

Probability of wins for each game
@GU - 38% (3 point loss)
UConn - 68% (4 point win)
@UL - 34% (4 point loss)
@Pitt - 7% (18 point loss)
Cuse - 97% (25 point win)

Now, before anyone goes all goofy about the probabilities for UConn, Pitt, or Syracuse, I'm going to say two things. 

#1 - Life is hard on the road.  Teams play worse on the road and better at home.  Marquette has an efficiency margin of 2 on the road and an efficiency margin of 23 at home.  'Cuse isn't even a winning team on the road (EM of -7).

#2 - When looking at the percentages, also factor in the expected point spread.  The first three games are four-point margins of victory, and there is a ton of variability that goes into the calcs.  Hence, the use of a monte carlo simulation to figure out the final number of wins...

Final Number of Conference Wins

Most likely # of wins - tie (13 & 14).  Each scenario has about a 34% chance of happening.

12 (or more) wins - 98%
13 (or more) wins - 83%
14 (or more) wins - 49%
15 (or more) wins - 16%
16 wins - 2%

In other words, as predicted, Marquette has a very high probability (83%) of finishing this gauntlet at 2-3, and about a 50/50 shot of going 3-2 or better.  15 wins (or even only 12) are definite possibilities. 

I really think that it boils down to the next three games, and not the full stretch. 

[willie warrior]

Where can I get the 18 points at Pitt and bet the house on MU?