[Cracked Sidewalks] Part 1 - MU is 5th best bet for a run based on who they've beaten

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Part 1 - MU is 5th best bet for a run based on who they've beaten

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Note for Cracked Sidewalks readers:  These two posts of emails I sent to several hundred people at other college basketball programs as well as sports reporters around the country.  Therefore these are not rah-rah arguing points for Marquette, since our fans are not the primary audience on this.  However, I think it is helpful every time we worry about our lack of depth and size to realize the old adage, "the other side has problems too."  When you really look at which teams have the talent Coach McGuire said you needed to win, and which teams have shown the ability to beat the tough teams they would have to beat for an NCAA run, Marquette looks like one of the teams most likely to make a deep run in the tourney.  With that:

2 criteria you should consider when filling out your Top 25 and NCAA bracket

Whether you are ranking the weekly Top 25, or just getting ready to fill out your NCAA bracket for an office pool in a couple of weeks, there are two factors that deserve strong consideration.

First, is the team able to beat ranked teams?  By that criteria, UConn is clearly No. 1 in the country with an 8-1 mark that gives them at least twice as many wins against ranked teams as all but one other team (Marquette is 5-2).  However, Wake Forest (4-0) and UNC (4-1) are the only two teams to beat three teams ranked IN THE TOP 10, and Oklahoma (4-0) and Missouri (3-0) are also undefeated against ranked opponents.  Those are some pretty good bets to be at top of your rankings and going deep in your bracket.

Second, does the team have enough talent to be ranked at the top and make a run?  Legendary commentator Al McGuire said you need 3 ½ stars to win a championship, and according to the mock NBA draft from a couple of weeks ago, only 11 teams have three players expected to go in the 2-round NBA draft either this year or next.  At the top of the list are UConn (6 projected draft picks, though Jerome Dyson may be out for the year to give them 5), and UNC (5).  Since those two teams are at the top of both lists, they aren’t a bad bet to make the title game.  But this list may also give you a sleeper or two.  UCLA is 0-3 against ranked teams, but they are the only other team with 4 projected NBA picks on the court.

The following two lists are how the teams would be ranked using these two different criteria.  It might make a good cheat sheet when filling out that bracket or ballot:

Part 1 â€" Rankings According to Ability to Beat Ranked Teams

The following are the 48 teams that are currently receiving votes and/or in the top 40 of the RPI, ranked by how they have done against ranked teams.  The first record is their record against teams ranked in the ESPN Top 25 when they played them (no bias against the AP, which would have only minor differences), and the second record only counts those games against Top 10 teams.  The order was determined by giving teams a point for every win, taking away a half point for every loss, and adding 1/3 of a point for each game against a Top 10 team, win or lose.  Judging just by their ability to beat ranked teams, the Four top teams and No. 1 seeds today would be UConn, Wake, UNC and Oklahoma:

1, Connecticut (8-1, 2-1)
2, Wake Forest (4-0, 3-0)
3, North Carolina (4-1, 3-1)
4, Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0)
5, Marquette (5-2, 0-0)
6, Louisville (3-1, 1-1)
7, Michigan State (3-1, 1-1)
8, Missouri (3-0, 0-0)
9, Duke (3-3, 1-3)
10, Ohio State (4-4, 1-1)
11, Pittsburgh (3-2, 2-0)
12, Arizona State (2-0, 2-0)
13, Washington (3-1, 0-0)
14, Gonzaga (3-2, 0-1)
15, Dayton (2-0, 0-0)
16, Clemson (2-2, 1-2)
17, Arizona (2-2, 2-1)
18, Syracuse (4-5, 0-1)
19, Minnesota (3-3, 1-0)
20, Villanova (3-4, 1-1)
21, Georgetown (3-6, 2-3)
22, California (2-1, 0-0)
23, Texas (2-3, 1-2)
24, Purdue (2-2, 0-1)
25, Florida State (2-4, 1-3)
26, UNLV (1-0, 0-0)
27, Xavier (1-1, 0-1)
28, Penn State (2-3, 1-0)
29, Temple (1-2, 1-1)
30, Butler (1-1, 0-0)
31, South Carolina (1-1, 0-0)
32, Utah (1-1, 0-0)
33, Utah State (1-1, 0-0)
34, Florida (0-0, 0-0)
35, West Virginia (2-7, 0-4)
36, Illinois (1-3, 0-0)
37, Memphis (1-3, 0-0)
38, LSU (0-1, 0-0)
39, San Diego State (0-1, 0-0)
40, Wisconsin (2-6, 0-1)
41, Brigham Young (0-2, 0-1)
42, Sienna (0-2, 0-1)
43, Saint Mary's (0-2, 0-0)
44, UAB (0-2, 0-0)
45, Davidson (0-3, 0-1)
46, Kansas (0-3, 0-1)
47, UCLA (0-3, 0-1)
48, Oklahoma State (0-5, 0-3)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/02/part-1-mu-is-5th-best-bet-for-run-based.html