MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: 1SE on January 29, 2023, 02:46:58 AM
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Great that for a second year in a row we're starting February talking about seed rather than bubble. Where do we end up this year? Could we conceivably win out? (Yes) Would that get us a 1? (I think so, Brew?)
Frankly, I well expect us to be a favorite in a second round game - anything less would be disappointing. Facing off against a 1 or 2 in the second round (if we even got there) would certainly be a signal of "that which must not be mentioned" *cough* fade *cough*.
If you think it's too early to be talking about locking in the tourney, go join the rest of your brethren at the fountain of COLE.
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1-seed: Win out and hope for some luck. High-major double-champs with 5 or fewer losses are generally going to the 1-line, but a 2 isn't impossible in that scenario, especially with such a logjam of teams fighting for those last couple 1-seeds.
2-seed: 0-1 losses likely gets us there and to me this feels like the realistic ceiling. Steal the UConn game, win everything except at Creighton, still be playing on Friday or Saturday of the BET, that probably gets it done.
3-seed: This gets my vote and I think is a good likelihood. Our favorable schedule won't have us jumping up seed lines, but teams ahead of us will slip (see yesterday) and if we take care of business, this is realistic.
4-seed: If we finish 7-3 or even 6-4, this is probably where we land. Because of our schedule, this should probably be the floor.
5-seed or worse: Scoop won't be a fun place in February.
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Win the BEAST and it's hard not to be a 3 seed or better. I doubt better because the BEAST doesn't seem as strong this year as in the past.
Lay an egg in the big east tournament and recency bias may cause a drop of a line or two but I hope the new use of more metrics eliminates some of the recency bias.
My projection: At least tied for #1 in the BEAST, 1 win in BEAST tournament, 3 seed.
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They hate us, so 5 seed or lower.
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They hate us, so 5 seed or lower.
Wasn't sure if this was sarcasm or not but statically we are seeded 1-2 seeds better than what was expected.
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Barring a significant injury I don't see us dropping from a top 4 seed. I also think a #2 seed is absolutely on the table and that we will get it if we win the BEast outright. To get a #1 would be inordinately difficult but not impossible.
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Win the BEAST and it's hard not to be a 3 seed or better. I doubt better because the BEAST doesn't seem as strong this year as in the past.
Lay an egg in the big east tournament and recency bias may cause a drop of a line or two but I hope the new use of more metrics eliminates some of the recency bias.
My projection: At least tied for #1 in the BEAST, 1 win in BEAST tournament, 3 seed.
Im not sure im sold on this 100% anymore. Sure, if you look at the conference top to bottom there are some terrible teams but there records are bad because the top 5 teams are destroying them nightly. The top 5 teams in this conference could all very well be in the sweet 16 at the same time. Providence imo is the weakest of the bunch and Creighton's overall record is bad because of an injury to their best player. UConn's ceiling right now is probably a 4-5 seed and what a s16 matchup that would be for a 1 seed. If I had to guess what the final seeds would be for the top 5 in the Big East they would be as follows
Marquette -2
Xavier -3
Uconn -4
Providence 5
Creighton -5
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Barring a significant injury I don't see us dropping from a top 4 seed. I also think a #2 seed is absolutely on the table and that we will get it if we win the BEast outright. To get a #1 would be inordinately difficult but not impossible.
I think the only way Marquette gets a 1 seed is if they win out from this point to the Ncaa Tournament. Its not so much that Marquette can't slip up its that the current one seeds Purdue, Houston and Tennessee just don't have the competition in their conferences for many more losses. Purdue is almost guaranteed to be a 1 at this point barring some injuries.
Houston plays in a terrible conference that they probably won't lose more than 1 game and although I don't think there's a chance in hell they are the number 2 team in the country the polls/net say otherwise. Houston is starting to turn into the Gonzaga of the AAC where they pound terrible teams all year, grab a great seed that they dont deserve and then get "Upset" in the round of 32 or S16.
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Looking at Xavier’s schedule, they have a very easy schedule remaining. They’ve already played UConn twice, Creighton twice, Providence on the road. Toughest games left are us at our home and Providence at home.
We’d really need to win out to win the BEast title outright. Does the Beast get multiple seeds 3 or higher?
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Looking at Xavier’s schedule, they have a very easy schedule remaining. They’ve already played UConn twice, Creighton twice, Providence on the road. Toughest games left are us at our home and Providence at home.
We’d really need to win out to win the BEast title outright. Does the Beast get multiple seeds 3 or higher?
It's quite possible. Remember X lost to DePaul.
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Xavier actually plays Providence twice still one at home next game and plays @ providence the second last game of the season. Thats why their win at Uconn was so daming for marquette but was cancelled out the week prior by the loss to Depaul. As it stands Xavier is the only team to date that has won a road game vs the top 5 of the conference.
As everyone knows Xaviers game @ Marquette will most likely be the game that decides the conference winner.
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double post
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Don’t think a one seed is going to happen. But it is indeed fun talking about seeding in late January. I just want Marquette to just always win the next game! I think we need to finish strong and earn a high seed - which is possible with this team… they really seem to be connected which is what Shaka was shooting for
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I’m guessing a 4 seed because I still think MU will lose 2 or 3 more games.
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We don’t really need to debate much about the permeabilities here because we have a resident bracketologist, and a good one at that, and he posted about what needs to be done.
A week ago I would’ve said a 4 seed, but one of the other best parts of this years team is that from week to week the expectations seem to rise, it’s special.
So now, I’ll go with 3 seed.
***all dependent on complete health of all the guys, hope they are all good and back at it on Wednesday
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I think the only way Marquette gets a 1 seed is if they win out from this point to the Ncaa Tournament. Its not so much that Marquette can't slip up its that the current one seeds Purdue, Houston and Tennessee just don't have the competition in their conferences for many more losses. Purdue is almost guaranteed to be a 1 at this point barring some injuries.
Houston plays in a terrible conference that they probably won't lose more than 1 game and although I don't think there's a chance in hell they are the number 2 team in the country the polls/net say otherwise. Houston is starting to turn into the Gonzaga of the AAC where they pound terrible teams all year, grab a great seed that they dont deserve and then get "Upset" in the round of 32 or S16.
I don’t see how you can come to this conclusion. Houston has been in every tournament since 2018 and has either out played or played to their seed line. They might get upset this year but that does not constitute a trend. And it can’t even be a future prediction because they move to the Big 12 next year and I don’t think anyone believes they are going to routinely beat that conference up.
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Give me the 1 seed why tf not.
My prediction is win @UConn, win vs Xavier, loss @Creighton, take care of all other business, win Big East tourney.
Double champs, 1 seed.
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Give me the 1 seed why tf not.
My prediction is win @UConn, win vs Xavier, loss @Creighton, take care of all other business, win Big East tourney.
Double champs, 1 seed.
Buy this man a beer he gets it, hell buy him a pitcher.
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I think we lock into 4 seed. Agree on the creighton loss, I also think we lose at uconn.