MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: MuggsyB on April 28, 2022, 09:54:33 AM
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Brutal.
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Buffoon1 blames Putin, aina?
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BeSt EcOnOmIc ReCoVeRy EvEr.
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Build back bedder...lol, aina?
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Who doesn't love 10% inflation and stagnant wages?
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But Mike's the one who can't contain himself because he hasn't had a thread locked in a while, ain'a?
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He just does it to agitate. Don't know why he loves to, unsuccessfully, try to get under one's skin. Might be something as simple as self-gratification, hey?
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The US recovered more quickly than most other countries from the pandemic. Our consumer spending remains high (and growing), and our imports are up because of it. Exports are still lagging recovery because the slow covid recovery in other nations, compounded with fears of war. Seems pretty straightforward.
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The US recovered more quickly than most other countries from the pandemic. Our consumer spending remains high (and growing), and our imports are up because of it. Exports are still lagging recovery because the slow covid recovery in other nations, compounded with fears of war. Seems pretty straightforward.
Furthermore, economists don't seem particularly worried.
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Brutal.
The number will be revised in weeks and you'll never notice. Consumer numbers and business investment is far from brutal. But I'm sure you know that.
Buffoon1 blames Putin, aina?
Considering the trade number the war in Europe has had an effect. But I'm sure you know that.
BeSt EcOnOmIc ReCoVeRy EvEr.
That was 2021. We're in 2022. But I'm sure you know that.
Build back bedder...lol, aina?
That legislation didn't pass Congress. If it did last year perhaps we'd see early shoots of investment mitigating this number? But I'm sure you know that.
Who doesn't love 10% inflation and stagnant wages?
We haven't hit double digits and wages aren't in the stagnation territory. But I'm sure you know that.
I imagine people like y'all are desperate to rain dance on terrible news but this is a stretch in every way possible. Wait until there is actual terrible news and make it easy on yourselves.
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Please, one question...
How's that Joe Biden workin' out for ya, hey?
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Please, one question...
How's that Joe Biden workin' out for ya, hey?
Better than your homie, Ol' Dumpy drawers, aina?
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The number will be revised in weeks and you'll never notice. Consumer numbers and business investment is far from brutal. But I'm sure you know that.
Considering the trade number the war in Europe has had an effect. But I'm sure you know that.
That was 2021. We're in 2022. But I'm sure you know that.
That legislation didn't pass Congress. If it did last year perhaps we'd see early shoots of investment mitigating this number? But I'm sure you know that.
We haven't hit double digits and wages aren't in the stagnation territory. But I'm sure you know that.
I imagine people like y'all are desperate to rain dance on terrible news but this is a stretch in every way possible. Wait until there is actual terrible news and make it easy on yourselves.
It doesn't sound good to me. But you're right about waiting to see the revised numbers.
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The US recovered more quickly than most other countries from the pandemic. Our consumer spending remains high (and growing), and our imports are up because of it. Exports are still lagging recovery because the slow covid recovery in other nations, compounded with fears of war. Seems pretty straightforward.
Exactly. Our recovery has been far better than most of the world.
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Brutal.
We are near full employment, wages are rising, and the Fed actually has to lift interest rates to slow the inflation that economic growth is causing...and you call that "brutal?"
Compare and contrast how we recovered from 2008 (also under a Democratic President) and this recovery has been stronger and faster.
This is a case study on how governments need to inject money into the economy during economic downturns, and not hold money out of the economy.
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This is a case study on how governments need to inject money into the economy during economic downturns, and not hold money out of the economy.
Oh yeah that's been stellar. Pay people to sit on their fat asses and collect. Really great strategy, aina?
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This is a case study on how governments need to inject money into the economy during economic downturns, and not hold money out of the economy.
Oh yeah that's been stellar. Pay people to sit on their fat asses and collect. Really great strategy, aina?
Stick to teeth.
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Stick to teeth.
And police blotter.
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Oh yeah that's been stellar. Pay people to sit on their fat asses and collect. Really great strategy, aina?
Yes. It's way better than a slow economic recovery that would have occurred otherwise.
Look around man! The economy is BOOMING thanks to the investments made during the Trump and Biden administrations. You think we would be doing this well had we NOT done those things?
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Ask your favorite restaurant owner, assuming they are still in business, how that's working for them, hey?
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Ask your favorite restaurant owner, assuming they are still in business, how that's working for them, hey?
Restaurants are packed here. Waited 45 minutes on Saturday for dinner at 8. I was in MKE in March, and the restaurant I was at had to turn people away.
But yes, continue.
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Restaurants are packed here. Waited 45 minutes on Saturday for dinner at 8. I was in MKE in March, and the restaurant I was at had to turn people away.
But yes, continue.
Yeah, I don't know where 4ever is eating these days, but almost every place I go to lately is packed.
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Yeah, I don't know where 4ever is eating these days, but almost every place I go to lately is packed.
Barricaded in the dental office?
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Yeah, I don't know where 4ever is eating these days, but almost every place I go to lately is packed.
Packed due to lack of staff.
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Packed due to lack of staff.
Nope.
And regardless, you think the restaurants would be better off with a sluggish economy? Sure they could hire workers but no one would be eating out.
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How can anyone say, with a straight face, that things are going well with the economy?
IBTL.
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And police blotter.
From reading his posts, I think he already suffers flashbacks.
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Yeah, y'all should bee as fooked up as me. Dat's ok. Ewe bea ewe, hey?
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My stock portfolio is robust and that’s the real economy
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4Never strikes me as a First Watch frequenter. Guess it probably depends on how many bad drivers are out in the Quon.
How can anyone say, with a straight face, that things are going well with the economy?
IBTL.
I don't think people are saying that things are great with the economy. I do think given world events over the past 2 years, the economy is much better than it could be and much better than most other places.
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Still recovering from a pandemic and going through a war. The economy isn't great. In the original COVID economy thread two years ago, hard time ahead was pretty much universally predicted and accepted. And that was without a war.
Economies hate disruptions.
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I was in NYC on Monday and Tuesday, and it was extremely quiet, from the airport, people on the street and the train to CT. The only thing that caught my eye was there were a lot more regular cars in the city than I have ever seen. My friend, who is great for the economy and eats out 4-5 times a week, told me that many restaurants are closing 1-2 hours earlier than pre pandemic. I have no idea how NYC is faring overall, but it did not appear to be bustling in trade.
Truth be told, in regard to the economy at the moment I do not care who the President is, I think we are in a stalled state of affairs and I do not like what I see down the road. There is blame to be passed to every President since 9/11 and that is not going to fix anything. I said early last summer that inflation had not yet started in the USA at that time in a real way and it was going to get worse. I am doubling down and saying inflation is going to get a lot worse and last longer than the Fed has been advising.
I can't speak for anyone else, but my wife and I have gone on self imposed lockdown due to the state of the economy. Since the MU season ended we have gone out to eat twice and we normally go out 2-3 times a week. IMO, dining out has lost having a perception of value to me over the past six months. An example, I love the wings at Elsa's and a platter of wings is now $50, and I will take a hard pass on the wings.
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My stock portfolio is robust and that’s the real economy
Interesting. Current numbers from 2 minutes ago:
In the last year, mine's up 6.69%. But YTD it's down 9.07%
The Dow is down .25% in the last year and down 6.62% YTD.
Nasdaq is down 8.35% in the last year and down 17.70% YTD.
S&P is up 2.57% in the last year and down 10.05% YTD.
Not sure what you're invested in but the numbers don't seem to be trending in the right direction. Unless of course, this is one of your "opposite day" posts.
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There would never have been a war if our enemies didn't perceive us as being so weak militarily. The needle moved into negative territory with the Buffoon's clusterfook handling of Afghanistan, hey?
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There would never have been a war if our enemies didn't perceive us as being so weak militarily. The needle moved into negative territory with the Buffoon's clusterfook handling of Afghanistan, hey?
😂😂
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Interesting. Current numbers from 2 minutes ago:
In the last year, mine's up 6.69%. But YTD it's down 9.07%
The Dow is down .25% in the last year and down 6.62% YTD.
Nasdaq is down 8.35% in the last year and down 17.70% YTD.
S&P is up 2.57% in the last year and down 10.05% YTD.
Not sure what you're invested in but the numbers don't seem to be trending in the right direction. Unless of course, this is one of your "opposite day" posts.
Playing the stock market is pretty easy.
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I can't speak for anyone else, but my wife and I have gone on self imposed lockdown due to the state of the economy. Since the MU season ended we have gone out to eat twice and we normally go out 2-3 times a week. IMO, dining out has lost having a perception of value to me over the past six months. An example, I love the wings at Elsa's and a platter of wings is now $50, and I will take a hard pass on the wings.
Goose, get thy arse over to Doc's. Wings are 5 for $10, 10 for $19, and 20 for $37.
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Interesting. Current numbers from 2 minutes ago:
In the last year, mine's up 6.69%. But YTD it's down 9.07%
The Dow is down .25% in the last year and down 6.62% YTD.
Nasdaq is down 8.35% in the last year and down 17.70% YTD.
S&P is up 2.57% in the last year and down 10.05% YTD.
Not sure what you're invested in but the numbers don't seem to be trending in the right direction. Unless of course, this is one of your "opposite day" posts.
As the market ran up, up and away through the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, the indexes grew top-heavy with cyclical tech giants. For example, the top 10 holdings of the extremely popular Nasdaq-tracking QQQ fund (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, GOOGL, NVDA, FB, COST, AVGO) make up 53% of the ETF.
Those kinds of stocks became quite overvalued, so when there was a cyclical rotation to more value-oriented stocks, they fell the hardest. Those with more of a value/defensive investing style have significantly outperformed over the last year. For instance, total return for PG, AEP and JNJ is 24%, 18% and 14%, respectively, over the last year, compared to 1% for SPY.
So while I don't know if Rico was pullin' our chains or not (I suspect yes), it is highly possible that his portfolio is "robust" even though the indexes have given back some gains.
As for the overall economy, I'll let others push their political agendas there. I'm too busy listening to recordings of Kevin McCarthy's post-1/6/21 conversations with other lawmakers about how he was going to ask Trump to resign ("I've had it with this guy!") after the then-president fomented a violent coup attempt against his own government. It's now interesting (but hardly surprising) to see how McCarthy and the other cowardly sheeple have capitulated to their emperor in a purely political calculus.
They don't care about the economy. For that matter, they don't care about democracy, either. It's on to the 2022 midterms!
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Please, one question...
How's that Joe Biden workin' out for ya, hey?
I'm actually doing okay under Biden. My house value has never been higher.
I could be doing a bit better, but Trump's 2017 tax plan raised my taxes. That's about the only negative in the last few years.
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Sir
You might have talked me into it. Karl at Elsa's is going to be waiting a long time to get $50 for wings from me and Doc's might be a good option. Plus, I like their great bourbon selection.
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There would never have been a war if our enemies didn't perceive us as being so weak militarily. The needle moved into negative territory with the Buffoon's clusterfook handling of Afghanistan, hey?
Yes, the U.S. military is so weak because we refuse to spend anything on our defense. That's why Putin attacked the U.S. a NATO country, Ukraine.
(https://images2.imgbox.com/b1/49/SubW72nc_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/SubW72nc)
It's truly astonishing how stupid Rupert Murdoch has made you people.
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There would never have been a war if our enemies didn't perceive us as being so weak militarily. The needle moved into negative territory with the Buffoon's clusterfook handling of Afghanistan, hey?
FFS. You can't begin to believe this is true.
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There would never have been a war if our enemies didn't perceive us as being so weak militarily. The needle moved into negative territory with the Buffoon's clusterfook handling of Afghanistan, hey?
Yeah. Trump saying he wanted to disband NATO had nothing to do with Putin thinking we were weak. He thought trump had done enough damage to NATO - he has learned in the last 2 months that the orange buffoon is gone.
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FFS. You can't begin to believe this is true.
Dude, he is a "healthcare professional" who has come to believe over time that the COVID vaccines aren't safe. He'll believe literally anything that confirms his bias.
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I was in NYC on Monday and Tuesday, and it was extremely quiet, from the airport, people on the street and the train to CT. The only thing that caught my eye was there were a lot more regular cars in the city than I have ever seen. My friend, who is great for the economy and eats out 4-5 times a week, told me that many restaurants are closing 1-2 hours earlier than pre pandemic. I have no idea how NYC is faring overall, but it did not appear to be bustling in trade.
NYC is doing ok considering what its been through the past two years. its a lot quieter during the daytime because so many people are still working from home. The return to the office is proceeding slowly. Its a lot quieter at night because folks are not out and about coming and going to restaurants, broadway, and the movies like in pre pandemic days.
The notion that the city is more dangerous does not stand up to scrutiny although it could be said that there are more folks with emotional problems out, particularly in the subway.
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AMZN guidance is a reflection of the state of the economy, IMO. I think AMZN and the Apple's of the world have power to tell things like they are, while I think a lot of companies undersold the supply chain and rising costs in their guidance. Other thing that seldom is discussed, AMZN and others, should be having blowout top numbers due to increased sales prices. My gut tells me the number of units of SKU's being sold tells the real story.
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AMZN guidance is a reflection of the state of the economy, IMO. I think AMZN and the Apple's of the world have power to tell things like they are, while I think a lot of companies undersold the supply chain and rising costs in their guidance. Other thing that seldom is discussed, AMZN and others, should be having blowout top numbers due to increased sales prices. My gut tells me the number of units of SKU's being sold tells the real story.
Disagree. AMZN suffering from the same post-COVID issue as Netflix; people are leaving their houses again.
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TSmith
What do you consider people leaving their house and doing? Chipolte barely met top line numbers and admitted that increased sales price offset rising costs. In addition, if people are leaving their houses to do things that is usually when other segments of consumer goods rise rapidly. Going on a vacation people usually will buy new clothes or shoes, getting involved in a new hobby and people buy things associated with that hobby. There is not a consumer good item that AMZN is not involved in, and they should be protected for any change in consumer sentiment.
The big boys have more than offset their rising costs and still are struggling to hit top line numbers. I do supply chain management for a living and feel I have solid understanding of the marketplace. The consumers are still spending money and buying product, just not the same amount of units. To be honest, I think the AMZN and Netflix comparison shows a complete lack of understanding of the makeup of the US consumer.
I think there is a big storm brewing and I am not going to have my head in the sand. Consumer good inflation is real and going to get worse. As I noted in earlier post, APPL and AMZN can confidently state unsure guidance without hurting their brands. 99.9% of the consumer goods marketplace are not in the same position to sound alarms. Now, I hope I am wrong for obvious reasons, but being involved in all aspects of retail for over 30 years has taught me a little bit about the US consumer and I am not sounding an alarm for the sake of sounding an alarm.
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COST, MSFT, FB, MCD, PG, TSLA and others all beat estimates and upped guidance. GOOGL, AMZN, MMM, TROW and others didn't have strong guidance.
All of which tells us what about what? If all were offering strong guidance or weak guidance, it might tell us something concrete. But some companies simply have stronger projections than others. As always.
They are all wary of inflation, lingering pandemic affects and supply-chain issues, as they should be.
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Having lived through the economies of the 70s , I can safely say we are entering a stagflation mode. Inflation with low to backward economic growth.
In our company we see the supply chain issues lasting for another year, and sustained difficulties in hiring employees. Add in increased regulation and my guess is we have a hard recession sometime in the next twelve months
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In my development of about 80 homes 15 are building backyard decks and another 10 are building pools. I guess with high energy costs air travel is expensive so some are just staying home rather than go on vacation. Most families have kids so they rather spend the money on the pool or deck which they can enjoy summer after summer than one vacation. So though the economy is not great its not that bad either if folks can spend on home improvements.
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In my development of about 80 homes 15 are building backyard decks and another 10 are building pools. I guess with high energy costs air travel is expensive so some are just staying home rather than go on vacation. Most families have kids so they rather spend the money on the pool or deck which they can enjoy summer after summer than one vacation. So though the economy is not great its not that bad either if folks can spend on home improvements.
Folks are spending on everything. Airplanes are packed. Restaurants are jammed. Hotels are charging a king's ransom again. People are buying stuff big and small. In the last 6 weeks, I've been to Asheville, Chicago and suburban Seattle -- all were hopping. Here in Charlotte, one of America's fastest-growing metro areas, money floweth.
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TSmith
What do you consider people leaving their house and doing? Chipolte barely met top line numbers and admitted that increased sales price offset rising costs. In addition, if people are leaving their houses to do things that is usually when other segments of consumer goods rise rapidly. Going on a vacation people usually will buy new clothes or shoes, getting involved in a new hobby and people buy things associated with that hobby. There is not a consumer good item that AMZN is not involved in, and they should be protected for any change in consumer sentiment.
The big boys have more than offset their rising costs and still are struggling to hit top line numbers. I do supply chain management for a living and feel I have solid understanding of the marketplace. The consumers are still spending money and buying product, just not the same amount of units. To be honest, I think the AMZN and Netflix comparison shows a complete lack of understanding of the makeup of the US consumer.
I think there is a big storm brewing and I am not going to have my head in the sand. Consumer good inflation is real and going to get worse. As I noted in earlier post, APPL and AMZN can confidently state unsure guidance without hurting their brands. 99.9% of the consumer goods marketplace are not in the same position to sound alarms. Now, I hope I am wrong for obvious reasons, but being involved in all aspects of retail for over 30 years has taught me a little bit about the US consumer and I am not sounding an alarm for the sake of sounding an alarm.
I am saying that AMZN and NFLX are in the same boat post-COVID. Consider that their year ago comparison was as the Delta variant was reeking havoc across the U.S. People were staying home and hunkering down, at least in comparison to 1Q22.
Now, people are out, spending directly rather than ordering through Amazon to the same degree. Travel has skyrocketed, as have hotels, rentals, etc. People are spending less from their couches, and top line price increases are not going to make up for the volume decreases.
I think AMZN will have an easier recovery once their YoY comparisons normalize. Supply chain will still be an issue, but I believe they can continue to other segments until that works itself out. NFLX I think will have a bit more difficult road due to the level of capital that has flocked to streaming. It's really difficult to create content at a price consumers are willing to pay given how many streaming options they have out there. I'm still tempted to buy some NFLX here as I think in the long run they will be fine as the clear leader, but I would guess some of these streaming services are in for a world of hurt.
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Four companies that have had tremendous earnings reports in the last week (and huge stock price gains in response to those reports):
Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Discover (DFS), American Express (AXP).
Americans are spending as if we don't have a care in the world.
Maybe we're all dumb and we should have a bazillion cares, but we aren't spending as if we're concerned about the economy.
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82
I think maybe you are missing my point. If costs are up 10% and top line numbers are close to the same YOY, we spending the same money and buying less amount of goods, which is not a good indicator for the economy.
Consumers spending money is not in question, but what we are getting for that money and how we are paying for it is my concern. The high increase in credit card debt over the past several months is also something to keep an eye on.
Much like politics, I do not think Wall Street is an indicator or is in touch with the masses. Record savings in the USA is great, but who is holding the savings? I believe the high credit card use is a troubling sign and possibly a reflection on how Main Street America is faring.
Basically, like many on here, I love the stock market and economy as a whole and love studying it. That said, I try hard to digest what the numbers mean based off real life experiences, rather than just talking numbers. I think we are in for rough sledding ahead and hope I am wrong.
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82
I think maybe you are missing my point. If costs are up 10% and top line numbers are close to the same YOY, we spending the same money and buying less amount of goods, which is not a good indicator for the economy.
Consumers spending money is not in question, but what we are getting for that money and how we are paying for it is my concern. The high increase in credit card debt over the past several months is also something to keep an eye on.
Much like politics, I do not think Wall Street is an indicator or is in touch with the masses. Record savings in the USA is great, but who is holding the savings? I believe the high credit card use is a troubling sign and possibly a reflection on how Main Street America is faring.
Basically, like many on here, I love the stock market and economy as a whole and love studying it. That said, I try hard to digest what the numbers mean based off real life experiences, rather than just talking numbers. I think we are in for rough sledding ahead and hope I am wrong.
You might be right, Goose; we'll see soon enough. You talk about real-life experiences, such as your belief that NYC was unusually "quiet." I happened to be in Chicago while you were in NYC, and I thought the North Side was hopping. I don't know that either of our experiences is much of an economic signal, but maybe yours was and mine wasn't.
I'm not going to debate your other points, partly because I agree with some of them and partly because I don't want either of our political biases to enter in.
For information on the state of the economy, I generally stick with reporting by trusted news sources. I'll leave you with Reuters' article on the situation, which I think does a nice job of presenting all the angles:
WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government, but the decline in output is misleading as domestic demand remained strong.
The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.
A measure of domestic demand accelerated from the fourth quarter's rate, allaying fears of either stagflation or a recession. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday. The U.S. central bank raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in March, and is soon likely to start trimming its asset holdings.
"The economy is still showing some resilience, but the first-quarter GDP report signals the start of more moderate growth this year and next, largely in response to higher interest rates," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. "Despite the contraction, the Fed has little choice but to hike aggressively in May to corral inflation."
Gross domestic product fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, the government said in its advance GDP estimate. The economy grew at a robust 6.9% pace in the fourth quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth rising at a 1.1% rate. Estimates ranged from as low as a 1.4% rate of contraction to as high as a 2.6% growth pace.
The economy also took a hit from supply-chain challenges, worker shortages and rampant inflation. Last quarter's decline is a head fake as GDP remains 2.8% above its level in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the economy grew 3.6% on a year-on-year basis. Further, 1.7 million jobs were created in the first quarter and manufacturing output grew at a 5% pace.
"It is nonsense that real GDP declined," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
But the mismatch hints at weaker productivity last quarter.
Front-loading by businesses fearful of shortages because of the Russia-Ukraine war contributed to a surge in imports. Exports tumbled, leading to a sharp widening of the trade deficit, which chopped 3.20 percentage points from GDP growth, the most since the third quarter of 2020. Trade has now been a drag on growth for seven straight quarters.
Businesses have turned to imports to satisfy demand, with local manufacturers lacking the capacity to boost production. Business inventories increased at a $158.7 billion pace, slowing from the robust $193.2 billion rate in the October-December quarter. Inventory investment cut 0.84 percentage point from GDP growth.
Stocks on Wall Street were higher as investors shrugged of the drop in GDP. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.
Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity picked up at a rate of 2.7% from the fourth-quarter's 2.5% pace, despite taking a hit from the winter wave of coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant.
The loss of pandemic money to households from the government was partially offset by rising wages amid a tightening labor market. Government spending fell for a second straight quarter.
Strengthening labor market conditions were reinforced by a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 180,000 for the week ended April 23. With a near record 11.3 million job openings at the end of February, employers are desperately hanging on to their workers.
Even with food and gasoline prices soaring, there is no sign yet of consumers pulling back. The government's measure of inflation in the economy surged at a 7.8% rate, the fastest in 41 years, after increasing at a 7.0% pace in the fourth quarter. Inflation by all measures has overshot the Fed's 2% target.
At least $2 trillion in excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are providing a cushion against inflation.
Workers shortages saw businesses boosting investment, with spending on equipment increasing at a 15.3% rate last quarter. They mostly bought computers and industrial machinery.
That combined with solid consumer spending to hoist final sales to private domestic purchasers at a 3.7% rate. This measure of domestic demand, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending, increased at a 2.6% rate in the fourth-quarter. Final sales to private domestic purchasers account for roughly 85% of aggregate spending.
The housing market notched another second straight quarterly gain, but with the 30-year fixed mortgage shooting above 5%, the outlook is uncertain.
While concerns remain that the Fed could aggressively tighten monetary policy and tip the economy into recession, most economists are not convinced, pointing to the strong domestic demand and signs that inflation may have peaked.
Consumer spending last quarter was driven by services. The shift in demand from goods is likely to help ease pressure on supply chains, though the coronavirus-related lockdowns in China pose a risk.
"The U.S. economy is not anywhere close to recession," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. "Underlying demand remains strong, and the labor market is in excellent shape. Growth will resume in the second quarter."
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You might be right, Goose; we'll see soon enough. You talk about real-life experiences, such as your belief that NYC was unusually "quiet." I happened to be in Chicago while you were in NYC, and I thought the North Side was hopping. I don't know that either of our experiences is much of an economic signal, but maybe yours was and mine wasn't.
I'm not going to debate your other points, partly because I agree with some of them and partly because I don't want either of our political biases to enter in.
For information on the state of the economy, I generally stick with reporting by trusted news sources. I'll leave you with Reuters' article on the situation, which I think does a nice job of presenting all the angles:
WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government, but the decline in output is misleading as domestic demand remained strong.
The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.
A measure of domestic demand accelerated from the fourth quarter's rate, allaying fears of either stagflation or a recession. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday. The U.S. central bank raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in March, and is soon likely to start trimming its asset holdings.
"The economy is still showing some resilience, but the first-quarter GDP report signals the start of more moderate growth this year and next, largely in response to higher interest rates," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. "Despite the contraction, the Fed has little choice but to hike aggressively in May to corral inflation."
Gross domestic product fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, the government said in its advance GDP estimate. The economy grew at a robust 6.9% pace in the fourth quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth rising at a 1.1% rate. Estimates ranged from as low as a 1.4% rate of contraction to as high as a 2.6% growth pace.
The economy also took a hit from supply-chain challenges, worker shortages and rampant inflation. Last quarter's decline is a head fake as GDP remains 2.8% above its level in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the economy grew 3.6% on a year-on-year basis. Further, 1.7 million jobs were created in the first quarter and manufacturing output grew at a 5% pace.
"It is nonsense that real GDP declined," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
But the mismatch hints at weaker productivity last quarter.
Front-loading by businesses fearful of shortages because of the Russia-Ukraine war contributed to a surge in imports. Exports tumbled, leading to a sharp widening of the trade deficit, which chopped 3.20 percentage points from GDP growth, the most since the third quarter of 2020. Trade has now been a drag on growth for seven straight quarters.
Businesses have turned to imports to satisfy demand, with local manufacturers lacking the capacity to boost production. Business inventories increased at a $158.7 billion pace, slowing from the robust $193.2 billion rate in the October-December quarter. Inventory investment cut 0.84 percentage point from GDP growth.
Stocks on Wall Street were higher as investors shrugged of the drop in GDP. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.
Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity picked up at a rate of 2.7% from the fourth-quarter's 2.5% pace, despite taking a hit from the winter wave of coronavirus cases, driven by the Omicron variant.
The loss of pandemic money to households from the government was partially offset by rising wages amid a tightening labor market. Government spending fell for a second straight quarter.
Strengthening labor market conditions were reinforced by a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 180,000 for the week ended April 23. With a near record 11.3 million job openings at the end of February, employers are desperately hanging on to their workers.
Even with food and gasoline prices soaring, there is no sign yet of consumers pulling back. The government's measure of inflation in the economy surged at a 7.8% rate, the fastest in 41 years, after increasing at a 7.0% pace in the fourth quarter. Inflation by all measures has overshot the Fed's 2% target.
At least $2 trillion in excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are providing a cushion against inflation.
Workers shortages saw businesses boosting investment, with spending on equipment increasing at a 15.3% rate last quarter. They mostly bought computers and industrial machinery.
That combined with solid consumer spending to hoist final sales to private domestic purchasers at a 3.7% rate. This measure of domestic demand, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending, increased at a 2.6% rate in the fourth-quarter. Final sales to private domestic purchasers account for roughly 85% of aggregate spending.
The housing market notched another second straight quarterly gain, but with the 30-year fixed mortgage shooting above 5%, the outlook is uncertain.
While concerns remain that the Fed could aggressively tighten monetary policy and tip the economy into recession, most economists are not convinced, pointing to the strong domestic demand and signs that inflation may have peaked.
Consumer spending last quarter was driven by services. The shift in demand from goods is likely to help ease pressure on supply chains, though the coronavirus-related lockdowns in China pose a risk.
"The U.S. economy is not anywhere close to recession," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. "Underlying demand remains strong, and the labor market is in excellent shape. Growth will resume in the second quarter."
I’m not reading that.
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I’m not reading that.
Yeah same, the link would suffice.
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82
My Dad, who relied on a strong retail environment for business, and used to go walk the malls after work and on weekends to get the pulse of the consumer. His main barometer was not the people in the stores, but the people carrying bags. People out and about is great and if they are spending money we have nothing to worry about.
I might be in the minority, but I have pulled in my horns. I passed on Bucks playoff tickets for the first two rounds and I may go the Deer District if the weather ever gets better. I would say that my desire to overpay for going out has diminished a great deal over the past six months.
As for your comment on political bias, I have zero on this topic. I believe every President dating back to Bill Clinton made a major mistake in the handling of China. I have no idea what economic issues we may or may not have had without allowing China to control our supply chain, but I have a pretty good idea of how China is affecting our lives today. There has been complete malpractice conducted by our leaders for nearly thirty years on this front. For reference, I think global trade is essential, but I do not think we have fair global trade with China and that is the problem.
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82
My Dad, who relied on a strong retail environment for business, and used to go walk the malls after work and on weekends to get the pulse of the consumer. His main barometer was not the people in the stores, but the people carrying bags. People out and about is great and if they are spending money we have nothing to worry about.
I might be in the minority, but I have pulled in my horns. I passed on Bucks playoff tickets for the first two rounds and I may go the Deer District if the weather ever gets better. I would say that my desire to overpay for going out has diminished a great deal over the past six months.
As for your comment on political bias, I have zero on this topic. I believe every President dating back to Bill Clinton made a major mistake in the handling of China. I have no idea what economic issues we may or may not have had without allowing China to control our supply chain, but I have a pretty good idea of how China is affecting our lives today. There has been complete malpractice conducted by our leaders for nearly thirty years on this front. For reference, I think global trade is essential, but I do not think we have fair global trade with China and that is the problem.
I think you've been very fair with your political bias here. For what its worth. Also, I generally agree with most of your assessments here.
China's grip over our supply chain is becoming a national security issue. Unfortunately, our desire for cheap products has made us dependent on China. I'm not sure we can legislate our way out of this. As a species, we are slow to react and we often only act when our lives or finances are at risk. I understand that you get this as well. It's the same issue we face with our environment. We see and acknowledge the problem, but we are unable to make real change to fix the problem. Every year, plastic consumption increases and we recycle less... but as long as we throw the plastic in the green bin and it leaves our driveway once every week or two, we won't change. Sorry, I'm getting off topic now. But I think I've made my point. We won't abandon our dependence on China's production and supply chains until it becomes financially untenable or we face an existential crisis (war).
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Exactly. Our recovery has been far better than most of the world.
Our recovery has been better than the rest of the world because of states (like Florida) and governors (like DeSantis) who kept their economies open. Don’t think President Biden and his supporters deserve credit for that.
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I just returned after a week and half in France and Italy. The airports were as full as I can remember pre-pandemic, the airline was asking for volunteers to be bumped on my flight out, and all the places I visited in France & Italy were mobbed with tourists. Hotels had limited reservations.
The airfare prices were surprisingly reasonable too, as were the hotel costs.
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Hards
I say it all of the time, I would trust Tim Cook and Apple's intel on the ground more than our government's handle on the situation. I say that 70% in jest and 30% that it might be true. That said, if I wanted the truth on day to day activity in China, give my Tim Cook's guys as my source.
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Our recovery has been better than the rest of the world because of states (like Florida) and governors (like DeSantis) who kept their economies open. Don’t think President Biden and his supporters deserve credit for that.
Lol
The only things manufactured in Florida are lies.
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Folks are spending on everything. Airplanes are packed. Restaurants are jammed. Hotels are charging a king's ransom again. People are buying stuff big and small. In the last 6 weeks, I've been to Asheville, Chicago and suburban Seattle -- all were hopping. Here in Charlotte, one of America's fastest-growing metro areas, money floweth.
I learned a long time ago, that circumstances like you describe above can happen at the same time the economy is contracting.
As long as people have jobs they feel secure in they are going to spend .
During the Great Recession places like The Cheesecake Factory had lines to get a table .
The supply chain issues we are experiencing limits businesses ability to expand . So in certain sectors there is a supply demand imbalance .
Our Company is trying to grow but in some cases it will take a year to get everything we need to build our new faculties . So we can’t take in many new accounts , our competitors are roughly the same position.
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Herman
We have a client with a fantastic product and has 500% over the past two years and has to discontinue digital marketing because he so far behind in deliveries. This is great run company and a better product and he cannot solicit new customers currently. They have a niche product that is needed for special needs children and I hope we can fix their mess. IMO, his situation is not a positive for the economy.
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Lol
The only things manufactured in Florida are lies.
How do y'all explain the GDP declining 1.4% in the 1st Q of this year? Its called a contracted economy. I blame Putin, hey?
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Lol
The only things manufactured in Florida are lies.
Ain’t that the truth.
https://nypost.com/2021/05/13/how-rebekah-jones-peddled-lies-about-florida-covid-19-deaths/amp/
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Ain’t that the truth.
https://nypost.com/2021/05/13/how-rebekah-jones-peddled-lies-about-florida-covid-19-deaths/amp/
Ah, the New York Post, a periodical of note! And an opinion from a conservative from Florida as well!
Great post, as usual, bud.
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How do y'all explain the GDP declining 1.4% in the 1st Q of this year? Its called a contracted economy. I blame Putin, hey?
I don't need to. The economists don't seem concerned, so I'm not either.
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Our recovery has been better than the rest of the world because of states (like Florida) and governors (like DeSantis) who kept their economies open. Don’t think President Biden and his supporters deserve credit for that.
Florida and Florida alone?
If not, can you provide the list of states you feel are also responsible for the recovery?
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Florida and Florida alone?
If not, can you provide the list of states you feel are also responsible for the recovery?
We were all locked up while Florida was the only place 'open for business'.
In their heads, at least.
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Our recovery has been better than the rest of the world because of states (like Florida) and governors (like DeSantis) who kept their economies open. Don’t think President Biden and his supporters deserve credit for that.
California GDP 2021 = +9.5%
Florida GDP 2021 = +7.5%
Wisconsin = +6.1%
Missouri = +4.4%
Oregon = +9.8%
Arizona = +6.2%
Please explain these numbers, in light of your theory that economic growth is directly tied to which states had tighter or looser COVID restrictions.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-state-4th-quarter-2021-and-year-2021-preliminary
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Florida and Florida alone?
If not, can you provide the list of states you feel are also responsible for the recovery?
Other states did well also, but most of them were smaller than Florida - New Hampshire, Utah, Nebraska, Nebraska, Maine and others.
People like Hards can make dumb jokes but there’s no doubt Florida fared well (comparatively) during the pandemic. The economy stayed open and kids were in school. And despite having the 2nd oldest (i.e., vulnerable) population in the US our mortality rate was in the middle of the pack, about equal to California. People are moving here in droves and real estate prices are through the roof. Businesses are thriving. DeSantis, who won a squeaker in the last election, has a 60% approval rating - greatly due to how he navigated Covid.
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Checked today, my portfolio still rocking. Thanks, Joe!
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Other states did well also, but most of them were smaller than Florida - New Hampshire, Utah, Nebraska, Nebraska, Maine and others.
People like Hards can make dumb jokes but there’s no doubt Florida fared well (comparatively) during the pandemic. The economy stayed open and kids were in school. And despite having the 2nd oldest (i.e., vulnerable) population in the US our mortality rate was in the middle of the pack, about equal to California. People are moving here in droves and real estate prices are through the roof. Businesses are thriving. DeSantis, who won a squeaker in the last election, has a 60% approval rating - greatly due to how he navigated Covid.
It isn't a dumb joke. It is the honest truth. Florida is the butt of a ton of jokes in this country. Your covid numbers are as believable as China's.
You may like it there, but the state is being led into the ground by a man who will be abandoning it in two years.
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Checked today, my portfolio still rocking. Thanks, Joe!
You're in good hands, hey?
https://www.newswars.com/embarrassment-to-our-country-biden-laughs-awkwardly-after-butchering-kleptocracy/
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California GDP 2021 = +9.5%
Florida GDP 2021 = +7.5%
Wisconsin = +6.1%
Missouri = +4.4%
Oregon = +9.8%
Arizona = +6.2%
Please explain these numbers, in light of your theory that economic growth is directly tied to which states had tighter or looser COVID restrictions.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-state-4th-quarter-2021-and-year-2021-preliminary
Pretty easy to explain. States like California totally cratered, states like Florida didn’t. Say you had $100 and lost $50, then recovered $10 - 20% recovery, right?Meanwhile, I had $100 and lost $10, then recovered $15 - 16.7%. So you “win”. But you have $60 and I have $105.
If you really believe California’s economy fared better than Florida’s from March 2020 through the present I have a bridge you might be interested in buying.
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You're in good hands, hey?
https://www.newswars.com/embarrassment-to-our-country-biden-laughs-awkwardly-after-butchering-kleptocracy/
What a website. Enjoy the brain rot!
NewsWars is a conspiracy oriented website run by Alex Jones.
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Ah, the New York Post, a periodical of note! And an opinion from a conservative from Florida as well!
Great post, as usual, bud.
Haha, you are something. So only if Sam Stein covers it, Don Lemon does a piece about it, or some other publication you approve of can they facts of the story be considered possible or hell maybe even true?
Maybe the problem is the publications you approve of and read won’t do the follow up and only pump out the unproven accusations and lies on the front end to get clicks and score cheap politics points. Then once the truth comes out of it doesn’t fit their needs why cover it. All media is guilty of it and the root of the disfunction/division in this country imo.
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Haha, you are something. So only if Sam Stein covers it, Don Lemon does a piece about it, or some other publication you approve of can they facts of the story be considered possible or hell maybe even true?
Maybe the problem is the publications you approve of and read won’t do the follow up and only pump out the unproven accusations and lies on the front end to get clicks and score cheap politics points. Then once the truth comes out of it doesn’t fit their needs why cover it. All media is guilty of it and the root of the disfunction/division in this country imo.
You’re an idiot on so many subjects
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You're in good hands, hey?
https://www.newswars.com/embarrassment-to-our-country-biden-laughs-awkwardly-after-butchering-kleptocracy/
Best president of my lifetime!
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It isn't a dumb joke. It is the honest truth. Florida is the butt of a ton of jokes in this country. Your covid numbers are as believable as China's.
You may like it there, but the state is being led into the ground by a man who will be abandoning it in two years.
I could sell the home I bought here in 2017 for 150% more than I paid for it. My property taxes are 25% of what they were in Cook County. My state income tax is zero. The air quality is the best of any city in the USA and the weather is close to perfect. If that’s what happens while one is “being led into the ground” where do I sign up for more.
Meanwhile, you’re like the guy shoveling elephant crap in the circus. If someone asks you why you won’t abandon the disaster you’re living in you smile and say, “What, and leave show business?” LOL
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Pretty easy to explain. States like California totally cratered, states like Florida didn’t. Say you had $100 and lost $50, then recovered $10 - 20% recovery, right?Meanwhile, I had $100 and lost $10, then recovered $15 - 16.7%. So you “win”. But you have $60 and I have $105.
If you really believe California’s economy fared better than Florida’s from March 2020 through the present I have a bridge you might be interested in buying.
Lenny,
When you write something like this, do you really believe I'll be too lazy to look up the data to see if you are correct or, once again, wrong?
Spoiler alert ... You are once again wrong.
Florida's annual GDP actually shrunk more in 2020 (relative to 2019) than California's. Only slightly more, but more nonetheless. And by no means did Cali "crater" compared to Florida or anywhere else.
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/inline-images/qgdpstate0321b.png
Might I suggest you post more with facts and less with your feelings?
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What a website. Enjoy the brain rot!
NewsWars is a conspiracy oriented website run by Alex Jones.
Yeah, totally photoshopped, aina?
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Haha, you are something. So only if Sam Stein covers it, Don Lemon does a piece about it, or some other publication you approve of can they facts of the story be considered possible or hell maybe even true?
Maybe the problem is the publications you approve of and read won’t do the follow up and only pump out the unproven accusations and lies on the front end to get clicks and score cheap politics points. Then once the truth comes out of it doesn’t fit their needs why cover it. All media is guilty of it and the root of the disfunction/division in this country imo.
No, I'm just not a rube. I learned how to properly vet my sources. You've proven time and time again, that you don't, or you choose to believe whatever your brain has cooked up and then find media to confirm this bias. You do realize there are plenty of resources online that you can check to see if your media outlets are lying to you or distorting the facts... right?
I think it's hilariou when people assume I give a crap what Sam Stein, Don Lemon etc think. They're telling on themselves, because the implication is that they follow similar media characters that have a right wing view point. I only accuse the people who actually watch the drivel of watching it... because they're repeating what those guys say on a nightly basis. I haven't watched cable news for decades. I don't listen to talk radio outside of NPR, and that is just for the news.
A lot of people on this board need to do a better job of understanding when they're being lied to and why. The propaganda machine has always been strong in this country. With all of the actual information more readily available, I'm consistently amazed at the laziness that people display when consuming media. But I'm not sure why I'm amazed when there are people around here that post links to articles that they've never read. Headlines are all that their attention spans can deal with before their brains return to the trough for more media slop.
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Lenny,
When you write something like this, do you really believe I'll be too lazy to look up the data to see if you are correct or, once again, wrong?
Spoiler alert ... You are once again wrong.
Florida's annual GDP actually shrunk more in 2020 (relative to 2019) than California's. Only slightly more, but more nonetheless. And by no means did Cali "crater" compared to Florida or anywhere else.
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/inline-images/qgdpstate0321b.png
Might I suggest you post more with facts and less with your feelings?
I feel a fact-free triple down coming from Lenny...
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Best president of my lifetime!
Don't steal my lines. Do our lifetimes intersect, hey?
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I could sell the home I bought here in 2017 for 150% more than I paid for it. My property taxes are 25% of what they were in Cook County. My state income tax is zero. The air quality is the best of any city in the USA and the weather is close to perfect. If that’s what happens while one is “being led into the ground” where do I sign up for more.
Meanwhile, you’re like the guy shoveling elephant crap in the circus. If someone asks you why you won’t abandon the disaster you’re living in you smile and say, “What, and leave show business?” LOL
My home is also worth 150% more than when I bought it. And I could sell it for probably 175% of what I bought it for. So I guess grats on keeping up with Wisconsin!
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Don't steal my lines. Do our lifetimes intersect, hey?
Imitation, flattery or something 😃
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What a website. Enjoy the brain rot!
NewsWars is a conspiracy oriented website run by Alex Jones.
The guy being bled dry by the Sandy Hook parents.
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My home is also worth 150% more than when I bought it. And I could sell it for probably 175% of what I bought it for. So I guess grats on keeping up with Wisconsin!
With mortgage rates crawling north of 5%, good luck with that, bro, hey?
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No, I'm just not a rube. I learned how to properly vet my sources. You've proven time and time again, that you don't, or you choose to believe whatever your brain has cooked up and then find media to confirm this bias. You do realize there are plenty of resources online that you can check to see if your media outlets are lying to you or distorting the facts... right?
I think it's hilariou when people assume I give a crap what Sam Stein, Don Lemon etc think. They're telling on themselves, because the implication is that they follow similar media characters that have a right wing view point. I only accuse the people who actually watch the drivel of watching it... because they're repeating what those guys say on a nightly basis. I haven't watched cable news for decades. I don't listen to talk radio outside of NPR, and that is just for the news.
A lot of people on this board need to do a better job of understanding when they're being lied to and why. The propaganda machine has always been strong in this country. With all of the actual information more readily available, I'm consistently amazed at the laziness that people display when consuming media. But I'm not sure why I'm amazed when there are people around here that post links to articles that they've never read. Headlines are all that their attention spans can deal with before their brains return to the trough for more media slop.
So point out the lies in the link I sent. Instead of just writing it off cause it’s from the Post. Make an argument against what was said, something of substance other then your standard oh it’s from xyz source so it must be wrong.
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No, I'm just not a rube. I learned how to properly vet my sources. You've proven time and time again, that you don't, or you choose to believe whatever your brain has cooked up and then find media to confirm this bias. You do realize there are plenty of resources online that you can check to see if your media outlets are lying to you or distorting the facts... right?
I think it's hilariou when people assume I give a crap what Sam Stein, Don Lemon etc think. They're telling on themselves, because the implication is that they follow similar media characters that have a right wing view point. I only accuse the people who actually watch the drivel of watching it... because they're repeating what those guys say on a nightly basis. I haven't watched cable news for decades. I don't listen to talk radio outside of NPR, and that is just for the news.
A lot of people on this board need to do a better job of understanding when they're being lied to and why. The propaganda machine has always been strong in this country. With all of the actual information more readily available, I'm consistently amazed at the laziness that people display when consuming media. But I'm not sure why I'm amazed when there are people around here that post links to articles that they've never read. Headlines are all that their attention spans can deal with before their brains return to the trough for more media slop.
And in all sincerity I’m always trying to find new reliable sources of information/news. Do you have 2 or 3 of your favorites you mind sharing so I can add to my list?
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So point out the lies in the link I sent. Instead of just writing it off cause it’s from the Post. Make an argument against what was said, something of substance other then your standard oh it’s from xyz source so it must be wrong.
No. I don't have time. I'm not spending my day disproving every opinion piece you post to this website. Someday you'll have to do a bit of the work on your own.
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My home is also worth 150% more than when I bought it. And I could sell it for probably 175% of what I bought it for. So I guess grats on keeping up with Wisconsin!
In 2017?
I'm not trying to trumpet Florida's greatness, but I have 2 friends who bought nice houses in Milwaukee suburbs post-2012 who recently sold for mild gains that are probably unch when all costs are factored in. Meanwhile my parent's bought a place in Florida last June and it was just valued at 38% more than they bought it for in less than a year and similar properties are selling for 50-60% more on the market now.
I personally think the FL real estate market is unsustainable and overheated, but to act like Wisconsin, or any northern state, is the same because homes appreciated over the last 15-20 years is silly.
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And in all sincerity I’m always trying to find new reliable sources of information/news. Do you have 2 or 3 of your favorites you mind sharing so I can add to my list?
So you can crow about them? No thanks. I dont even have specific places I frequent for my news.
What I do, in general, is read the article and then figure out the credentials and biases of the author or interviewee. This leads me towards understanding not just the information presented, but why it is presented the way it is.
Additionally, sources that use language intended to elicit an emotional response are dog crap. 🐕
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No. I don't have time. I'm not spending my day disproving every opinion piece you post to this website. Someday you'll have to do a bit of the work on your own.
Haha, amazing. “I’m not doing your work”…..means there wasn’t a lie you could find but it’s from the Post so I don’t care! 🤡
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So you can crow about them? No thanks. I dont even have specific places I frequent for my news.
What I do, in general, is read the article and then figure out the credentials and biases of the author or interviewee. This leads me towards understanding not just the information presented, but why it is presented the way it is.
Additionally, sources that use language intended to elicit an emotional response are dog crap. 🐕
Hahahahaha, have a day Hards!!!
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Haha, amazing. “I’m not doing your work”…..means there wasn’t a lie you could find but it’s from the Post so I don’t care! 🤡
No. What you're failing to grasp is that you van just post article link after article link and expect me to wade through the crap for hours upon hours a day. Yet you won't do the same foe yourself.
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You're in good hands, hey?
https://www.newswars.com/embarrassment-to-our-country-biden-laughs-awkwardly-after-butchering-kleptocracy/
We could do this all day!
https://www.businessinsider.com/video-shows-trump-struggling-to-name-his-truth-social-platform-2022-4
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Comparing FL real estate and WI is beyond crazy. Lenny's area has been on fire the past two plus years and no comparison to WI market. My house is up 150% from what I paid for it but have been in it for 30 years.
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In 2017?
I'm not trying to trumpet Florida's greatness, but I have 2 friends who bought nice houses in Milwaukee suburbs post-2012 who recently sold for mild gains that are probably unch when all costs are factored in. Meanwhile my parent's bought a place in Florida last June and it was just valued at 38% more than they bought it for in less than a year and similar properties are selling for 50-60% more on the market now.
I personally think the FL real estate market is unsustainable and overheated, but to act like Wisconsin, or any northern state, is the same because homes appreciated over the last 15-20 years is silly.
2013 is when I bought. I'm 150% value since 2017.
Dane County real estate is nuts.
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Comparing FL real estate and WI is beyond crazy. Lenny's area has been on fire the past two plus years and no comparison to WI market. My house is up 150% from what I paid for it but have been in it for 30 years.
I know it is. There are currently 34 single family homes for sale in all of Madison according to zillow. Houses are not being built fast enough so prices are up insanely.
200k gets you 800 Sq ft on pre-forclosure.
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We could do this all day!
https://www.businessinsider.com/video-shows-trump-struggling-to-name-his-truth-social-platform-2022-4
Whataboutism is back, let’s go!!!
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No. What you're failing to grasp is that you van just post article link after article link and expect me to wade through the crap for hours upon hours a day. Yet you won't do the same foe yourself.
I dont expect or want you to do anything. But if you’re going to make some smart ass comment about the link I post at least read it and argue the merits of the article. Not asking to much.
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Whataboutism is back, let’s go!!!
What’s it like being wrong all the time and proven a fool with each post?
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Hards
I get that real estate is hot in WI and I have seen big appreciation over the past two years, but nothing like SW Florida. I am floored by the pricing of homes in MKE and tempted to put a crazy price on my pad and see what happens. Only problem with that, I have to be willing to pull the trigger if a live one ends up baiting on the price.
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What’s it like being wrong all the time and proven a fool with each post?
Big difference in being told you’re wrong on everything from then actually being proven wrong. I have been wrong plenty with my opinions and what I believed to be true on scoop over last couple years. But so have plenty of others, so it’s all good Rico.
Rather then focusing on right or wrong, I try to be as respectful as possible and not sling mud or personal attacks at people, not perfect at it and occasionally I’ll put myself in Scoop timeout when I start taking things too seriously. I’ll ask you though, how does it feel to be the one constantly name calling and dragging things into the mud?
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Big difference in being told you’re wrong on everything from then actually being proven wrong. I have been wrong plenty with my opinions and what I believed to be true on scoop over last couple years. But so have plenty of others, so it’s all good Rico.
Rather then focusing on right or wrong, I try to be as respectful as possible and not sling mud or personal attacks at people, not perfect at it and occasionally I’ll put myself in Scoop timeout when I start taking things too seriously. I’ll ask you though, how does it feel to be the one constantly name calling and dragging things into the mud?
Incredibly rewarding
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Incredibly rewarding
Haha. You gotta find more healthy hobbies or ways to spend your time if you find such satisfaction in anonymously being mean to people online.
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Haha. You gotta find more healthy hobbies or ways to spend your time if you find such satisfaction in anonymously being mean to people online.
Whoosh
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Other states did well also, but most of them were smaller than Florida - New Hampshire, Utah, Nebraska, Nebraska, Maine and others.
Yeah, this isn't it. But it went as expected.
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Fun thread.
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I dont expect or want you to do anything. But if you’re going to make some smart ass comment about the link I post at least read it and argue the merits of the article. Not asking to much.
Again, I'm not going to indulge your bad faith questions.
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Lenny,
When you write something like this, do you really believe I'll be too lazy to look up the data to see if you are correct or, once again, wrong?
Spoiler alert ... You are once again wrong.
Florida's annual GDP actually shrunk more in 2020 (relative to 2019) than California's. Only slightly more, but more nonetheless. And by no means did Cali "crater" compared to Florida or anywhere else.
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/inline-images/qgdpstate0321b.png
Might I suggest you post more with facts and less with your feelings?
Pak,
Every article I’ve read (WSJ, NYT, whatever) either celebrates or grudgingly admits that Florida did better economically during the pandemic than California, New York, Illinois etc. Straight down the middle (LOL) Chuck Todd and his mostly left panel on Meet the Press acknowledged the same thing this past week. You’re literally the only person I know that suggests otherwise. Maybe you’re right, likely you’re cherry picking your numbers. I go back to my hometown (Chicago) frequently. It’s a mess. Real estate values are up a bit in some parts of the city. Here they’re through the roof. People are leaving (California,too) and a lot of them end up down here. To me that’s evidence of a flight to quality.
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Sir
You might have talked me into it. Karl at Elsa's is going to be waiting a long time to get $50 for wings from me and Doc's might be a good option. Plus, I like their great bourbon selection.
Great spot for another “summit” guys!!
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Hards
I get that real estate is hot in WI and I have seen big appreciation over the past two years, but nothing like SW Florida. I am floored by the pricing of homes in MKE and tempted to put a crazy price on my pad and see what happens. Only problem with that, I have to be willing to pull the trigger if a live one ends up baiting on the price.
Az is going nuts. Bought a home northwest Phoenix 4 1/2 years ago and it’s doubled!!
My home in Wisconsin maybe 25-30%
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Pak,
Every article I’ve read (WSJ, NYT, whatever) either celebrates or grudgingly admits that Florida did better economically during the pandemic than California, New York, Illinois etc. Straight down the middle (LOL) Chuck Todd and his mostly left panel on Meet the Press acknowledged the same thing this past week. You’re literally the only person I know that suggests otherwise. Maybe you’re right, likely you’re cherry picking your numbers. I go back to my hometown (Chicago) frequently. It’s a mess. Real estate values are up a bit in some parts of the city. Here they’re through the roof. People are leaving (California,too) and a lot of them end up down here. To me that’s evidence of a flight to quality.
Yes! The fact-free triple down!
Data, who needs it, right? Especially if it disproves what I want to be true!
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Maybe one of the moderators can form a Disinformation Governamce Board for each thread with someone singing a Tiktok jingle to win these arguments? The fact of the matter is we have significant problems. There's a reason the vast majority of Americans are deeply concerned about the economy and prolonged inflation. But beyond trying to actually have an adult conversation about what can be done to fix this s-show it's turned into insults hurled at each other with no solutions whatsoever about this predicament.
The sad truth is we are at a point in our political discourse where a vast majority of those that support one party or the other refuse to criticize their own leadership. In different ways our last two commanders in chief and their sycophants have destroyed this great nation and caused irreparable harm. We have an absolute dumpster fire of current problems, both domestically and globally, that have been handled extremely poorly and continue to get worse. It’s time for solutions, not a pissing contest between. incompetent buffoons on both sides of the political spectrum.
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Maybe one of the moderators can form a Disinformation Governamce Board for each thread with someone singing a Tiktok jingle to win these arguments? The fact of the matter is we have significant problems. There's a reason the vast majority of Americans are deeply concerned about the economy and prolonged inflation. But beyond trying to actually have an adult conversation about what can be done to fix this s-show it's turned into insults hurled at each other with no solutions whatsoever about this predicament.
The sad truth is we are at a point in our political discourse where a vast majority of those that support one party or the other refuse to criticize their own leadership. In different ways our last two commanders in chief and their sycophants have destroyed this great nation and caused irreparable harm. We have an absolute dumpster fire of current problems, both domestically and globally, that have been handled extremely poorly and continue to get worse. It’s time for solutions, nor a pissing contest between. incompetent buffoons on both sides of the political spectrum.
I mean, scoop isn’t going to fix it. We can’t even afford a good NIL deal
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I mean, scoop isn’t going to fix it. We can’t even afford a good NIL deal
Off the subject, I have heard from a pretty good source that on one particular campus an athlete is making 16K per commercial.
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Off the subject, I have heard from a pretty good source that on one particular campus an athlete is making 16K per commercial.
Braelon Allen going to ruin team chemistry
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Braelon Allen going to ruin team chemistry
I don't think this possible scenario is seamless for the other "student athletes".
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Pak,
Every article I’ve read (WSJ, NYT, whatever) either celebrates or grudgingly admits that Florida did better economically during the pandemic than California, New York, Illinois etc. Straight down the middle (LOL) Chuck Todd and his mostly left panel on Meet the Press acknowledged the same thing this past week. You’re literally the only person I know that suggests otherwise. Maybe you’re right, likely you’re cherry picking your numbers. I go back to my hometown (Chicago) frequently. It’s a mess. Real estate values are up a bit in some parts of the city. Here they’re through the roof. People are leaving (California,too) and a lot of them end up down here. To me that’s evidence of a flight to quality.
Lenny,
I haven't "suggested" anything. I'm just providing the facts and data that contradicts what you're suggesting. You suggested a link between the strength of economic recovery and the lack of COVID restriction. The state data shows no such link exists. You suggested that's because states with more stringent COVID mitigations "cratered" compared to Florida and states with lesser mitigation strategies. Again, the data doesn't support that.
Having not provided any evidence to support what you've said, you now turn to nebulous claims about what you've read or saw on TV. Even if that's true, it doesn't matter, because the data doesn't support it.
Again, less feelings, more facts.
Speaking of facts, any evidence that the Chicago real estate market is "A mess."
The Chicago Tribune disagrees.
In the nine-county Chicago metro area, the median home sale price from January to November was $300,000, up nearly 12% over the same months in 2020, according to the Illinois Association of Realtors.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/ct-re-housing-market-2022-prices-20211229-wdpazn3nsfh4dhoq57kb4poucy-story.html
You're not seriously suggesting that people are migrating to Florida - a decadeslong trend - because of the guy who's been in the governor's mansion the last few years, are you? I'd like to see some evidence to support that. I think you might find the data shows Florida has had far greater periods of growth than the past few years. but show me if I'm wrong.
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Meanwhile, Carty and/or Petrocelli, da DJIA peed down its leg to da tune of -939 tadey, hey?
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Meanwhile, Carty and/or Petrocelli, da DJIA peed down its leg to da tune of -939 tadey, hey?
When your a market savant like me, every day is a win in the market. Thanks, Joe!
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Good, wee got hour furst Scoop NIL funder. Thanks, Unk, aina?
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Good, wee got hour furst Scoop NIL funder. Thanks, Unk, aina?
I want players that play for the uniform, not the money
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Good luck wit dat, kin, hey?
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A lot of Baghdad bobs here when inflation, energy and market are in the chitter today with no signs of relief but merely a very temporary covidputinbigoilcaucasionsupremacypayyerfairshare phenomena. Rewind a couple years same scenario and the same bunch would be hemorrhaging out of multiple orafices
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A lot of Baghdad bobs here when inflation, energy and market are in the chitter today with no signs of relief but merely a very temporary covidputinbigoilcaucasionsupremacypayyerfairshare phenomena. Rewind a couple years same scenario and the same bunch would be hemorrhaging out of multiple orafices
7 of 10
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A lot of Baghdad bobs here when inflation, energy and market are in the chitter today with no signs of relief but merely a very temporary covidputinbigoilcaucasionsupremacypayyerfairshare phenomena. Rewind a couple years same scenario and the same bunch would be hemorrhaging out of multiple orafices
If only your god had managed to pull off the coup and get Mike Pence’s neck in a noose, the market woulda been up today.
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Doc,
Unfortunately, I think we are going to see more bad days in the market over the coming weeks and months. Even Warren Buffett is being affected by the economic slowdown and the slowdown might just be starting.
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I want players that play for the uniform, not the money
I prefer players that leave it all on the court.
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Isn't that Majerus is alleged to have done?
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A lot of Baghdad bobs here when inflation, energy and market are in the chitter today with no signs of relief but merely a very temporary covidputinbigoilcaucasionsupremacypayyerfairshare phenomena. Rewind a couple years same scenario and the same bunch would be hemorrhaging out of multiple orafices
Wonder what the guy who slipped “kleptocracy” into Joe’s teleprompter is doing for a living these days.
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Wonder what the guy who slipped “kleptocracy” into Joe’s teleprompter is doing for a living these days.
Putting disinfectant into his system
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Hards
I get that real estate is hot in WI and I have seen big appreciation over the past two years, but nothing like SW Florida. I am floored by the pricing of homes in MKE and tempted to put a crazy price on my pad and see what happens. Only problem with that, I have to be willing to pull the trigger if a live one ends up baiting on the price.
Bought a place in FL on the ocean less than three years ago. Paid about 5-8% more than I wanted to then, it is now valued at 60% higher than what I paid. It’s absolutely insane.
Tried to buy another place in the same city (single family home) sold in basically a weekend, over asking, for cash. These are not small numbers either, lots of New Yorkers coming down and buying up properties.
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Wonder what the guy who slipped “kleptocracy” into Joe’s teleprompter is doing for a living these days.
That guy could have put "dog" or "cat" into the teleprompter and the Buffoon would struggle. He's that far off the planet, aina?
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21Jump
Great call on your part. I thought went the pandemic hit that prices in SW FL would fall and I could scoop up a deal, boy was I wrong. Now I priced out the game unless there is a real correction. My dream of retiring to Naples in currently on hold and need to make some hay over the upcoming years to make it happen.
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That guy could have put "dog" or "cat" into the teleprompter and the Buffoon would struggle. He's that far off the planet, aina?
On the long list of gaffes by previous presidents, this one doesn't even make the mark as significant. Especially for a person who has known to suffer from a stutter his entire life.
Seriously, the people making a big deal of this have way more screws loose in their heads than Biden.
And no idea what any of that has to do with the economic forecast.
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Putting disinfectant into his system
Poison’s too good for him.
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https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/
Corporate profits contributing majority of increased consumer prices
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Lenny,
I haven't "suggested" anything. I'm just providing the facts and data that contradicts what you're suggesting. You suggested a link between the strength of economic recovery and the lack of COVID restriction. The state data shows no such link exists. You suggested that's because states with more stringent COVID mitigations "cratered" compared to Florida and states with lesser mitigation strategies. Again, the data doesn't support that.
Having not provided any evidence to support what you've said, you now turn to nebulous claims about what you've read or saw on TV. Even if that's true, it doesn't matter, because the data doesn't support it.
Again, less feelings, more facts.
Speaking of facts, any evidence that the Chicago real estate market is "A mess."
The Chicago Tribune disagrees.
In the nine-county Chicago metro area, the median home sale price from January to November was $300,000, up nearly 12% over the same months in 2020, according to the Illinois Association of Realtors.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/real-estate/ct-re-housing-market-2022-prices-20211229-wdpazn3nsfh4dhoq57kb4poucy-story.html
You're not seriously suggesting that people are migrating to Florida - a decadeslong trend - because of the guy who's been in the governor's mansion the last few years, are you? I'd like to see some evidence to support that. I think you might find the data shows Florida has had far greater periods of growth than the past few years. but show me if I'm wrong.
If only facts had any power to persuade. But, as roqqet blurted out, "forget the facts", whatever they wish to be true becomes their reality, regardless of verifiable facts.
Lenny will never accept that he is wrong. Despite the facts, he will always believe that Florida suffered less during COVID (it didn't) and recovered faster post-COVID (it didn't) than evil liberal California, all thanks to the wonderful leadership of DeSantis.
I can never understand that when people are shown that they've been intentionally, repeatedly lied to, they don't get mad at the people who told them the lies, they get mad at the people that show them the truth, then they go right back to willingly, happily slurping down those comforting, bias confirming lies once again.
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In light of your profound declaration, how will you reconcile the entire Hunter Biden charade? Maybe the same way Hillary's email smear was dealt with, aina?
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If only facts had any power to persuade. But, as roqqet blurted out, "forget the facts", whatever they wish to be true becomes their reality, regardless of verifiable facts.
Lenny will never accept that he is wrong. Despite the facts, he will always believe that Florida suffered less during COVID (it didn't) and recovered faster post-COVID (it didn't) than evil liberal California, all thanks to the wonderful leadership of DeSantis.
I can never understand that when people are shown that they've been intentionally, repeatedly lied to, they don't get mad at the people who told them the lies, they get mad at the people that show them the truth, then they go right back to willingly, happily slurping down those comforting, bias confirming lies once again.
It all makes sense when you realize that Lenny’s is kinda dim.
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In light of your profound declaration, how will you reconcile the entire Hunter Biden charade? Maybe the same way Hillary's email smear was dealt with, aina?
Your god’s use of his personal devices - including to lead a violent coup attempt against his own government - makes Hillary’s “crimes” look quaint.
But sure - lock ‘em all up!
See how easy that is?!?!
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I'm all for tossin' all of 'em overboard. They're all too fookin' old ta serve, aina?
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In light of your profound declaration, how will you reconcile the entire Hunter Biden charade? Maybe the same way Hillary's email smear was dealt with, aina?
a lot of rose colored glasses with donkey holograms here doc-even the cost of blow straw paintings getting a little pricey, eyn'a?
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a lot of rose colored glasses with donkey holograms here doc-even the cost of blow straw paintings getting a little pricey, eyn'a?
6 of 10
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Fluff
You should be as dim as Lenny. It is amazing how some people can dismiss a lifetime of hard work and success, with so little ease. The world needs more Lenny’s and we all can learn from his life experiences.
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well if there's one thing i know lenny knows is the economy and the market...way more than a school guidance counselor for sure. and the guy can navigate his way around a golf course too. saying the guy is "dim" because one doesn't agree with him, is classic. might as well as called him a racist ?-(
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rocket
Spot on. I will listen to Lenny on the economy and the market all day long. I might not agree every time, but know his comments are based off of a long, successful career. Truthfully, we have dimwits on here that are experts on every topic and fail to listen and learn from folks like Lenny.
I very much value the knowledge shared by experts on this site. There are guys on here I do not agree with, but trust their thoughts on their fields of expertise. Only an idiot would dismiss someone that is smarter on a topic. Sadly, there are a lot of idiots in this world.
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If Goose and Roqqet think Lennys is a smart dude that tells me all I need to know.
He's dimmer than I even thought he was.
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Bought a place in FL on the ocean less than three years ago. Paid about 5-8% more than I wanted to then, it is now valued at 60% higher than what I paid. It’s absolutely insane.
Tried to buy another place in the same city (single family home) sold in basically a weekend, over asking, for cash. These are not small numbers either, lots of New Yorkers coming down and buying up properties.
Our situation was similar , bought our home on the ocean in Florida coming up on two years ago , signed contract at the peak of pandemic. Which was full price at the time. Place is now valued up 68 percent from where we bought it.
We got out of the Northeast just in time.
Crazy thing is people are paying the prices . We are seeing deals at $1,000 per square foot and in some cases above . My next door neighbor has a 1500 square foot home going for $2,000,000.
All these silly numbers mean nothing to us, cause we intend on staying here.
Will be interesting to see how these values sustain post a recession .
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Fluff
Again, I do not think you get it. There are actually successful and smart people on this site. You really should learn from them, instead of being a smart ass. I very much value hearing the thoughts of smart folks on here, regardless if I agree with them or not.
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Fluff
Again, I do not think you get it. There are actually successful and smart people on this site. You really should learn from them, instead of being a smart ass. I very much value hearing the thoughts of smart folks on here, regardless if I agree with them or not.
Lennys may or may not have been successful. I have no idea. But if so, it is sad what he has become.
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Fluff
You are a bitter, twisted person and that is how you were born, raised or became more over time. I do not like you, but I think you post some solid posts every 2000-3000 posts and I learn from those posts. You should try it, you might become less bitter.
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Fluff
You are a bitter, twisted person and that is how you were born, raised or became more over time. I do not like you, but I think you post some solid posts every 2000-3000 posts and I learn from those posts. You should try it, you might become less bitter.
Awww....Goose doesn't like me... 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) How will I carry through...
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Fluff
I am sure you will survive quite well in a very narrow, sad world. If I were you I would be asking if anyone liked me, not just Goose.
I can promise you that is my last reply ever to you, but I do feel sorry for you. Good luck to you and even better luck to anyone that has daily interaction with you, they need it.
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I can promise you that is my last reply ever to you,
Oh please no. The comedy is pure gold.
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Fluff
Again, I do not think you get it. There are actually successful and smart people on this site. You really should learn from them, instead of being a smart ass. I very much value hearing the thoughts of smart folks on here, regardless if I agree with them or not.
I've haven't read anything on Scoop that leads me to believe that any of us are above average IQ.
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I've haven't read anything on Scoop that leads me to believe that any of us are above average IQ.
Why would anyone above an average IQ spend time here?
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Why would anyone above an average IQ spend time here?
To see how the other half lives?
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Skat
I know you were tongue in cheek, and appreciate you bringing some humor to the night. That said, I do think it is very rewarding learning from the folks that post on scoop. I have learned a ton on scoop, and often from posters I have nothing in common with. I might be borderline old, but I want to learn from anyone no matter how I feel about them.
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Rewind a couple years same scenario and the same bunch would be hemorrhaging out of multiple orafices
A couple of years ago nobody could leave there homes, the economy was in the toilet, the hospitals were turning people away, and your unnatural carnal knowledgeing hero was saying: "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."
And on April 23, 2020 over 26 million jobless claims had been filed.
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rocket
Spot on.
Words that until tonight have never been posted here.
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Your god’s use of his personal devices - including to lead a violent coup attempt against his own government - makes Hillary’s “crimes” look quaint.
But sure - lock ‘em all up!
See how easy that is?!?!
When the GOP takes control of congress in 2023 we may learn the FBI used the same MO on Jan 6 as they did in Michigan when they tried to assassinate Gretchen Whitmer. The deep state could not convince a jury to buy that one as it became clear the Feds instigated the whole thing.
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When the GOP takes control of congress in 2023 we may learn the FBI used the same MO on Jan 6 as they did in Michigan when they tried to assassinate Gretchen Whitmer. The deep state could not convince a jury to buy that one as it became clear the Feds instigated the whole thing.
You forgot the teal.
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Mid-term massacre is a given, aina?
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Mid-term massacre is a given, aina?
Given history, yes. It happens to all first term presidents
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When the GOP takes control of congress in 2023 we may learn the FBI used the same MO on Jan 6 as they did in Michigan when they tried to assassinate Gretchen Whitmer. The deep state could not convince a jury to buy that one as it became clear the Feds instigated the whole thing.
This is what the road to radicalization looks like.
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This is what the road to radicalization looks like.
As opposed to the head of Homeland Security, creating a "Truth Ministry" led by some radical whacko singing Mary Poppins? Great.
This whole thread turned into personal insults and non-sequitirs resulting in partisan nonsense. The fact remains that our current president is Joseph Biden and we have severe problems on a number of fronts. If many of you want to rationalize or ignore them that's your prerogative but deep down most people know we're dealing with an utter s-show and this administration is not stepping up to the plate.
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As opposed to the head of Homeland Security, creating a "Truth Ministry" led by some radical whacko singing Mary Poppins? Great.
This whole thread turned into personal insults and non-sequitirs resulting in partisan nonsense. The fact remains that our current president is Joseph Biden and we have severe problems on a number of fronts. If many of you want to rationalize or ignore them that's your prerogative but deep down most people know we're dealing with an utter s-show and this administration is not stepping up to the plate.
Yes. You are quite the example of being above it all. 🙄🙄🙄
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As opposed to the head of Homeland Security, creating a "Truth Ministry" led by some radical whacko singing Mary Poppins? Great.
This whole thread turned into personal insults and non-sequitirs resulting in partisan nonsense. The fact remains that our current president is Joseph Biden and we have severe problems on a number of fronts. If many of you want to rationalize or ignore them that's your prerogative but deep down most people know we're dealing with an utter s-show and this administration is not stepping up to the plate.
My number one concern is locking up all the perpetrators of the insurrection of January 6th. I’m very disappointed in the Biden administration not dropping the hammer on the elected officials that participated
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A couple of years ago nobody could leave there homes, the economy was in the toilet, the hospitals were turning people away, and your unnatural carnal knowledgeing hero was saying: "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."
And on April 23, 2020 over 26 million jobless claims had been filed.
if that's all you got from the previous term, i feel sorry for our country. of all the things going on from 2016-2020 and you pull that half-assed bleach thing out?? the orange man had this country humming until the china virus. we were energy independant. now we are begging our enemies for oil?? that's a hot mess right there. and please don't get started on stupid statements-jimmy carter is celebrating right now cuz someone is worse than him
dude, so many jobs were lost when covid hit, they had to come back at some point regardless of who's in charge. operation warp speed was a hell of a project.
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This thread has turned into an example of why we might be doomed for failure as a nation, a partisan pissing match.
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Fluff
I am sure you will survive quite well in a very narrow, sad world. If I were you I would be asking if anyone liked me, not just Goose.
I can promise you that is my last reply ever to you, but I do feel sorry for you. Good luck to you and even better luck to anyone that has daily interaction with you, they need it.
goose-dittos on all of your comments! there are many here whom may not be on my Christmas card list, but i either learn from or they make me laugh a little in a good way. as for puffy-i know he doesn't care, but i'll bet his chit stinks a little bit more than he realizes. something missing in his life, but when ya know it all, what's left? at least some of the others have or are willing to show a little bit of humility from time to time
i used to butt heads with lenny, but you told me he's really a decent guy-i listened and then met him and you were right on bother! i've met some great people here on scoop and hoping to meet some more
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As opposed to the head of Homeland Security, creating a "Truth Ministry" led by some radical whacko singing Mary Poppins? Great.
This whole thread turned into personal insults and non-sequitirs resulting in partisan nonsense. The fact remains that our current president is Joseph Biden and we have severe problems on a number of fronts. If many of you want to rationalize or ignore them that's your prerogative but deep down most people know we're dealing with an utter s-show and this administration is not stepping up to the plate.
He's suggesting the FBI tried to assassinate a governor and ran Jan. 6 as a false flag operation ... and your instinct is to defend him with a rambling, nonsensical whataboutism that might even make rocket blush.
Well done, sir.
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if that's all you got from the previous term, i feel sorry for our country. of all the things going on from 2016-2020 and you pull that half-assed bleach thing out?? the orange man had this country humming until the china virus. we were energy independant. now we are begging our enemies for oil?? that's a hot mess right there. and please don't get started on stupid statements-jimmy carter is celebrating right now cuz someone is worse than him
dude, so many jobs were lost when covid hit, they had to come back at some point regardless of who's in charge. operation warp speed was a hell of a project.
“Trump did great except for the most significant thing to happen during his tenure” is quite the justification.
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This thread has turned into an example of why we might be doomed for failure as a nation, a partisan pissing match.
Welcome to Superbar after the advent of COVID!
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When the GOP takes control of congress in 2023 we may learn the FBI used the same MO on Jan 6 as they did in Michigan when they tried to assassinate Gretchen Whitmer. The deep state could not convince a jury to buy that one as it became clear the Feds instigated the whole thing.
What? No antifa?
The fact remains that our current president is Joseph Biden
If you’re acknowledging that fact, Muggs, the deep state and/or the FBI must have gotten to you.
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When the GOP takes control of congress in 2023 we may learn the FBI used the same MO on Jan 6 as they did in Michigan when they tried to assassinate Gretchen Whitmer. The deep state could not convince a jury to buy that one as it became clear the Feds instigated the whole thing.
No.. wrong… it wasn’t an assassination attempt…
Kidnapping was the goal…. still gross 🤮
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goose-dittos on all of your comments! there are many here whom may not be on my Christmas card list, but i either learn from or they make me laugh a little in a good way. as for puffy-i know he doesn't care, but i'll bet his chit stinks a little bit more than he realizes. something missing in his life, but when ya know it all, what's left? at least some of the others have or are willing to show a little bit of humility from time to time
i used to butt heads with lenny, but you told me he's really a decent guy-i listened and then met him and you were right on bother! i've met some great people here on scoop and hoping to meet some more
Nah, all the greats have been met, aina?
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“Trump did great except for the most significant thing to happen during his tenure” is quite the justification.
Everything was going great until I lost my job and couldn't leave my house for a year.
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This thread has turned into an example of why we might be doomed for failure as a nation, a partisan pissing match.
Says the guy who legitimately wanted manslaughter charges brought against Abbot while singing the praises of Cuomo’s handling of Covid. You are not innocent of partisan hackery my friend.
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This thread has turned into an example of why we might be doomed for failure as a nation, a partisan pissing match.
Doomed until the boomers pass.
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Doomed until the boomers pass.
So much this. It’s not reductive either; proof of concept is in this very thread—just match the age to the imbecile (here’s lookin’ at you rocket).
To paraphrase the Allmans, when all the boomers die off leavin' us alone, we’ll raise our children in the peaceful way we can.
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Well, quite a few of us Boomers don't think it was good clean fun to stage a deadly coup attempt against the U.S. government; we actually care about the planet; we don't blame the deep state, antifa and CRT for all of America's ills; we don't think every man woman and child needs 2 dozen guns; we believe in science; we don't believe in stealing reproductive rights from women; we believe racism continues to be a scourge in this country; etc.
So it's not all that productive to generalize.
But I do absolutely wish more of y'all Millennials, Gen-Zers and the like would nominate and elect more good leaders. America, and the world, could use 'em.
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They're all too fookin' old, hey?
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Well, quite a few of us Boomers don't think it was good clean fun to stage a deadly coup attempt against the U.S. government; we actually care about the planet; we don't blame the deep state, antifa and CRT for all of America's ills; we don't think every man woman and child needs 2 dozen guns; we believe in science; we don't believe in stealing reproductive rights from women; we believe racism continues to be a scourge in this country; etc.
So it's not all that productive to generalize.
But I do absolutely wish more of y'all Millennials, Gen-Zers and the like would nominate and elect more good leaders. America, and the world, could use 'em.
MU82:
Have you ever held publicly elected office at any level?
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MU82:
Have you ever held publicly elected office at any level?
Just publicly clowned for slut shaming.
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MU82:
Have you ever held publicly elected office at any level?
No sir. Have you?
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No sir. Have you?
It wasn’t meant to be a trick question .
Yes , I have and was re-elected . Was In a position where we had taxing authority .
The issues this contrary faces are complex. Information technology has grown dramatically in the last 30 years . One of the outgrowths of that is a never ending set of media driven epithets and bromides from parties who have vested interests in certain outcomes . Also the ready availability of internet has driven envy .
I found that behind closed doors we could rationally work things out and make the necessary compromises . People were willing to try and understand both sides of the issues . However , when the TV cameras were on , everyone was strutting like a Peacock.
Every issue does not have a simple black and white solution . Working out the complexities in a responsible way is what sets this country apart from the rest of the world . Unfortunately , most of our institutions have been debased or are under permanent attack . It seems like the campaign never ends .
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It wasn’t meant to be a trick question .
Yes , I have and was re-elected . Was In a position where we had taxing authority .
The issues this contrary faces are complex. Information technology has grown dramatically in the last 30 years . One of the outgrowths of that is a never ending set of media driven epithets and bromides from parties who have vested interests in certain outcomes . Also the ready availability of internet has driven envy .
I found that behind closed doors we could rationally work things out and make the necessary compromises . People were willing to try and understand both sides of the issues . However , when the TV cameras were on , everyone was strutting like a Peacock.
Every issue does not have a simple black and white solution . Working out the complexities in a responsible way is what sets this country apart from the rest of the world . Unfortunately , most of our institutions have been debased or are under permanent attack . It seems like the campaign never ends .
I didn’t think it was a trick question. Thanks for serving. I agree with much of your post.
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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-science-business-india-global-trade-4d32889d982bf0a60396ff4ba817ca16 (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-science-business-india-global-trade-4d32889d982bf0a60396ff4ba817ca16)
Record heat wave scorches wheat crops in India, which will contribute to global food shortages.
This won't help things.
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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-science-business-india-global-trade-4d32889d982bf0a60396ff4ba817ca16 (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-science-business-india-global-trade-4d32889d982bf0a60396ff4ba817ca16)
Record heat wave scorches wheat crops in India, which will contribute to global food shortages.
This won't help things.
Well, at least that's on topic as long as the topic is either "forecast" and/or "economic"
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I blame Putin and Brandon, hey?
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Berkshire Hathaway held its annual meeting Saturday -- aka "Woodstock for capitalists" -- and it was revealed that the company spent the first quarter buying $51B in stock.
Those included making major energy buys in Occidental Petroleum and Chevron, acquiring an 11.4% stake in HP, and making an arbitrage play with Activision (which Microsoft is trying to buy in a mega-deal that faces significant regulatory scrutiny).
Not only are these examples of Warren Buffett betting on the economy, but they're a classic case of him following his own long-time credo: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
Of course, Buffett has been wrong sometimes, too. And even if all of those buys were "mistakes," he'll be able to keep a roof over his head and food on his table. Still, this is him saying that eventually the economy will bounce back (because it always does) and eventually the stock market will achieve new highs (because it always does).
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82
I also took away from the Buffett meeting that he and Munger felt that speculation inflated the market over the past couple of years. His comments on giving guidance were also interested, IMO. I watched 90% of the event and did not come away feeling we are in a robust economic cycle. I very much enjoyed watching the meeting and hope the old guys are back next year.
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Bought a place in FL on the ocean less than three years ago. Paid about 5-8% more than I wanted to then, it is now valued at 60% higher than what I paid. It’s absolutely insane.
Tried to buy another place in the same city (single family home) sold in basically a weekend, over asking, for cash. These are not small numbers either, lots of New Yorkers coming down and buying up properties.
No kidding. We just sold our place in Vero Beach that we bought in 2014. 125% price increase in eight years. Most of the appreciation came in the past 18 months.
We bought our new place nearby. Good news was we made good money. Bad news was what we paid for the new one.
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He's suggesting the FBI tried to assassinate a governor and ran Jan. 6 as a false flag operation ... and your instinct is to defend him with a rambling, nonsensical whataboutism that might even make rocket blush.
Well done, sir.
I am not suggesting anything at all. The FBI has track a record of doing this sort of thing. It was clear to the jury that the FBI instigated the Whitmer assassination attempt. Fifteen years ago they entrapped a group of middle eastern men in an attempt to bomb Fort Dix. When the authorities encourage people to act on their ill founded instincts we should all agree we have a problem.
https://theintercept.com/2015/06/25/fort-dix-five-terror-plot-the-real-story/
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I am not suggesting anything at all. The FBI has track a record of doing this sort of thing. It was clear to the jury that the FBI instigated the Whitmer assassination attempt. Fifteen years ago they entrapped a group of middle eastern men in an attempt to bomb Fort Dix. When the authorities encourage people to act on their ill founded instincts we should all agree we have a problem.
https://theintercept.com/2015/06/25/fort-dix-five-terror-plot-the-real-story/
You claimed that the FBI "tried to assassinate Gretchen Whitmer." That is NOT what the jury ruled. They ruled that they entrapped the defendants in an attempt to make a conspiracy charge. You can't understand that difference?
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82
I also took away from the Buffett meeting that he and Munger felt that speculation inflated the market over the past couple of years. His comments on giving guidance were also interested, IMO. I watched 90% of the event and did not come away feeling we are in a robust economic cycle. I very much enjoyed watching the meeting and hope the old guys are back next year.
I'd agree with that after also having watched it. But I'd also say they did not come close to presenting a hair-on-fire view that the economy's doomed.
More than what they said was what they did -- put $51B of new money into the market, something they historically have not done lightly.
I am NOT claiming that the economy is swell, nor am I claiming Buffett/Munger believe it's swell. There are issues. There are always issues. Over time, however, the U.S. economy grows, and the stock market advances, right?
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82
I am a big Buffett and Munger guy and always believe that you should not bet against America. I do not think it was doom or gloom either, but it sounded to me that they are well prepared for the next potential crisis, regardless of what causes it or when it happens. That said, he spent a fair amount of time talking about the last two financial crisis and mentioned the gambling mania of the market quite a bit. I took that he might believe the crazy run up during the pandemic might not be a good thing and it our reached the earnings of many companies.
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82
I am a big Buffett and Munger guy and always believe that you should not bet against America. I do not think it was doom or gloom either, but it sounded to me that they are well prepared for the next potential crisis, regardless of what causes it or when it happens. That said, he spent a fair amount of time talking about the last two financial crisis and mentioned the gambling mania of the market quite a bit. I took that he might believe the crazy run up during the pandemic might not be a good thing and it our reached the earnings of many companies.
We agree again, Goose.
He also reacted to the crazy run-up by buying $51B in stocks.
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82
Pretty sure that those three purchases were not part of the gambling mania stocks he was referring to. They normally are hard on Wall Street and banks, but this time it seemed to be more of a warning than a scolding to me.
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82
Pretty sure that those three purchases were not part of the gambling mania stocks he was referring to. They normally are hard on Wall Street and banks, but this time it seemed to be more of a warning than a scolding to me.
One could argue ATVI was a pretty speculative buy, but I get what you're saying.
Personally, I'm looking for opportunities in companies I'd like to own (or own more of) that were too expensive, but I'm certainly not going crazy. Capital preservation matters to me.
Interesting times, Goose!
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82
I am a big Buffett and Munger guy and always believe that you should not bet against America. I do not think it was doom or gloom either, but it sounded to me that they are well prepared for the next potential crisis, regardless of what causes it or when it happens. That said, he spent a fair amount of time talking about the last two financial crisis and mentioned the gambling mania of the market quite a bit. I took that he might believe the crazy run up during the pandemic might not be a good thing and it our reached the earnings of many companies.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/china-offers-so-much-better-companies-at-so-much-lower-prices-charlie-munger/ar-AAWOvC1?ocid=uxbndlbing
Munger says China companies better run than US
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/china-offers-so-much-better-companies-at-so-much-lower-prices-charlie-munger/ar-AAWOvC1?ocid=uxbndlbing
Munger says China companies better run than US
That sounds like Munger trying to talk up his book, otherwise he's delusional.
Better opportunities to get good companies at a discount? Sure. Tied to the inherent risk on government intervention and accounting irregularities, as well as market risk. But "much better" companies?
Stick to making old man yelling at cloud comments about crypto and dumb soundbytes on gold.
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Well, quite a few of us Boomers don't think it was good clean fun to stage a deadly coup attempt against the U.S. government; we actually care about the planet; we don't blame the deep state, antifa and CRT for all of America's ills; we don't think every man woman and child needs 2 dozen guns; we believe in science; we don't believe in stealing reproductive rights from women; we believe racism continues to be a scourge in this country; etc.
So it's not all that productive to generalize.
But I do absolutely wish more of y'all Millennials, Gen-Zers and the like would nominate and elect more good leaders. America, and the world, could use 'em.
did raychel get her show back yet? i'm trying not to envision 82 with a short dark bob and a lisp...trying real hard
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did raychel get her show back yet? i'm trying not to envision 82 with a short dark bob and a lisp...trying real hard
Madcow has a bigger adams apple than the majority of us.
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Madcow has a bigger adams apple than the majority of us.
Ziggy is always such a class act.
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I am saying that AMZN and NFLX are in the same boat post-COVID. Consider that their year ago comparison was as the Delta variant was reeking havoc across the U.S. People were staying home and hunkering down, at least in comparison to 1Q22.
Now, people are out, spending directly rather than ordering through Amazon to the same degree. Travel has skyrocketed, as have hotels, rentals, etc. People are spending less from their couches, and top line price increases are not going to make up for the volume decreases.
I think AMZN will have an easier recovery once their YoY comparisons normalize. Supply chain will still be an issue, but I believe they can continue to other segments until that works itself out. NFLX I think will have a bit more difficult road due to the level of capital that has flocked to streaming. It's really difficult to create content at a price consumers are willing to pay given how many streaming options they have out there. I'm still tempted to buy some NFLX here as I think in the long run they will be fine as the clear leader, but I would guess some of these streaming services are in for a world of hurt.
To build on the above, this from the Yahoo Finance morning letter:
"Let’s break these down. Earlier on during the pandemic, consumers stuck at home had shifted spending toward goods, and away from in-person activities like traveling, dining out or seeing movies or sporting events that could have exposed them to a potentially lethal virus.
But now, the pendulum has swung in the other direction, and Americans are finally going out again. And with inflation running at multi-decade highs and cutting into consumers’ disposable income, that increase in services spending has come, in many cases, at the expense of purchases on goods.
The latest batch of economic data underscores this phenomenon. March's retail sales report from the Commerce Department showed consumers were pulling back on buying big-ticket items, with motor vehicle and parts dealer sales down by 1.2% on a year-over-year basis (and by 1.9% on a monthly basis), and electronic and appliance store sales down 9.7% year-over-year. By contrast, bar and restaurant sales were up 19.4% compared to March 2021.
U.S. manufacturers have also begun to show signs of slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to the lowest level since September 2020 in April, reaching 55.4.
The second trend reversal is related: Many tech companies, like goods-producers, had seen a significant pull-forward in demand during the height of the pandemic that’s now rapidly turning around.
The past two weeks’ worth of tech earnings have been a clear — and for many investors, painful — reflection of these trends. And the fear for investors has been that the surge in demand seen during the pandemic was not, in fact, the kick-starter of sustainable growth, but was instead a temporary spike in business that cannibalized future growth.
Case in point: Netflix (NFLX) suffered its first subscriber loss in more than a decade in the first quarter of this year, shedding 200,000 users after adding as many as 15.8 million in a single quarter in early 2020. It also guided toward a drop of another 2 million users in the current quarter this year.
Even Amazon (AMZN) was not immune to this reversal, posting its slowest revenue growth since 2001 in its latest quarter as sales increased just 7% over last year. Online store net sales — one of the business segments that had most benefited from pandemic-era online shopping — fell 3.3%, in the largest decline since Amazon first broke out sales for the unit in 2016."
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To build on the above, this from the Yahoo Finance morning letter:
"Let’s break these down. Earlier on during the pandemic, consumers stuck at home had shifted spending toward goods, and away from in-person activities like traveling, dining out or seeing movies or sporting events that could have exposed them to a potentially lethal virus.
But now, the pendulum has swung in the other direction, and Americans are finally going out again. And with inflation running at multi-decade highs and cutting into consumers’ disposable income, that increase in services spending has come, in many cases, at the expense of purchases on goods.
The latest batch of economic data underscores this phenomenon. March's retail sales report from the Commerce Department showed consumers were pulling back on buying big-ticket items, with motor vehicle and parts dealer sales down by 1.2% on a year-over-year basis (and by 1.9% on a monthly basis), and electronic and appliance store sales down 9.7% year-over-year. By contrast, bar and restaurant sales were up 19.4% compared to March 2021.
U.S. manufacturers have also begun to show signs of slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to the lowest level since September 2020 in April, reaching 55.4.
The second trend reversal is related: Many tech companies, like goods-producers, had seen a significant pull-forward in demand during the height of the pandemic that’s now rapidly turning around.
The past two weeks’ worth of tech earnings have been a clear — and for many investors, painful — reflection of these trends. And the fear for investors has been that the surge in demand seen during the pandemic was not, in fact, the kick-starter of sustainable growth, but was instead a temporary spike in business that cannibalized future growth.
Case in point: Netflix (NFLX) suffered its first subscriber loss in more than a decade in the first quarter of this year, shedding 200,000 users after adding as many as 15.8 million in a single quarter in early 2020. It also guided toward a drop of another 2 million users in the current quarter this year.
Even Amazon (AMZN) was not immune to this reversal, posting its slowest revenue growth since 2001 in its latest quarter as sales increased just 7% over last year. Online store net sales — one of the business segments that had most benefited from pandemic-era online shopping — fell 3.3%, in the largest decline since Amazon first broke out sales for the unit in 2016."
Yep, makes sense. When these companies report, the figures they are comparing are year-over-year for that quarter - Q1 2022 vs Q1 2021. And they were setting records for revenue and profit in Q1 2021 because of the pandemic. For some, it's impossible to show growth.
And not just tech companies. For example, Clorox stock was a huge winner in the first 6-9 months of the pandemic but it's bombed since.
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I am moving this to get it out of the recruiting thread:
Did I call Pakuni a liar or simple minded after his post? Of course not.
Here’s an up to date article on a study that gives overall rankings on how the states fared during the pandemic.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/states-of-covid-performance-economic-schools-study-working-paper-lockdowns-11649621806
Holy crap, you are actually using as a source Stephen Moore and The Committee to Unleash Prosperity???!?!! LMAO.
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FWIW, I just did my beginning of the month price updates for customers based on the previous months international traded metal commodities prices and there was 10% decrease in price on everything except nickel. Last day of April prices were still trending down too. It means decrease in costs to make things.
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MU Fan
That is good news. Do you see that trend continuing?
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I am moving this to get it out of the recruiting thread:
Holy crap, you are actually using as a source Stephen Moore and The Committee to Unleash Prosperity???!?!! LMAO.
If one were to take the time to read this working paper (note: even the authors don't call it a study), one might find that the benchmarks were chosen to get a specific result.
For example, a third of their "grade" is based on how well they believe states did with education. And how well states did with education isn't based on things like test scores or graduation rates, but only how much in-person learning took place.
But if you take out the education component, Florida did not, as Lenny claims, fare especially well, even according to this working paper he cites. The working paper places Florida 13th in overall economic performance and 28th in mortality.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29928/w29928.pdf
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MU Fan
That is good news. Do you see that trend continuing?
Goose,
Yes I do.
I have the April summary Excel sheet from the LME (London Metals Exchange). I'll PDF a few pages later when I have a chance so you can see the trends on a few metals.
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MU Fan
Thanks. I also sent you a PM with my email address. Would love to keep in touch on this topic without boring the fellow scoopers.
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FWIW, I just did my beginning of the month price updates for customers based on the previous months international traded metal commodities prices and there was 10% decrease in price on everything except nickel. Last day of April prices were still trending down too. It means decrease in costs to make things.
That's both super-interesting and hopeful. Thanks for posting.
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If one were to take the time to read this working paper (note: even the authors don't call it a study), one might find that the benchmarks were chosen to get a specific result.
For example, a third of their "grade" is based on how well they believe states did with education. And how well states did with education isn't based on things like test scores or graduation rates, but only how much in-person learning took place.
But if you take out the education component, Florida did not, as Lenny claims, fare especially well, even according to this working paper he cites. The working paper places Florida 13th in overall economic performance and 28th in mortality.
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29928/w29928.pdf
Exactly, and they use "adjusted unemployment" and "adjusted GDP" to fudge by industry rather than the actual numbers.
But Stephen Moore is a great economist if 1) You always want to be wrong, and 2) you want someone to justify any crazy policy you want to propose.
The fact that Lenny proposed this as a reliable source is just another case of eagerly swallowing whatever one wants to hear without any critical thinking.
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Goose,
Yes I do.
I have the April summary Excel sheet from the LME (London Metals Exchange). I'll PDF a few pages later when I have a chance so you can see the trends on a few metals.
I think these updates are informative, too
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Here's a sampling of April metals pricing for a few metals. This is from the London Metal's Exchange (LME). It's available for free if you register. They have the monthly averages going back to January 2021. Further back data is also available somewhere on the site.
Nickel has been screwed up because of Russia invading Ukraine. I took a closer look and it actually leveled off some at the end of the month. We separate the Fabrication Price + Metal Price = Sales Price for most customers. Fab price (that's our cost to make) and we increase/decrease the metal portion depending on international monthly averages. Some of our customers use COMEX which is another international metals trading site. So we don't get penalized for increases in raw material and our customer's benefit when international prices drop.
https://www.lme.com/en/Market-data/Reports-and-data/Monthly-averages
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Job openings hit new records, while 4.5 million Americans quit or changed jobs in March, reflecting labor market strength
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/03/jobs-quits-hires-march-2022/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F36bd879%2F6271551e956121755a613f47%2F5f8d147cae7e8a56e5b732a4%2F15%2F72%2F6271551e956121755a613f47
U.S. employers posted a record 11.5 million job openings in March, and some 4.5 million Americans quit or changed positions, matching previous highs, reflecting continued strength in the rapidly growing labor market, where workers continue to have the upper hand.
Meanwhile, the number of new hires — 6.7 million — remained steady, according to a report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Demand for workers remains white-hot,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “This is very broad, enormous growth. Even though we’ve almost recovered all of the jobs lost in the pandemic, the labor market just keeps getting tighter and tighter.”
The strong job openings and worker quits data could play into discussions about curbing inflation at the Federal Reserve, which is expected to announce another interest rate hike, by a half-percentage point on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell has cited the “extremely, historically” tight job market as a major reason he says the economy can withstand higher interest rates without tumbling into recession.
U.S. employers have added more than 400,000 jobs a month for nearly a year, while the unemployment rate of 3.6 percent remains near record lows. Overall, the number of job openings grew 36 percent in March from a year earlier. Demand for workers rose markedly in retail (where job openings increased by 155,000 from February), manufacturing (up 75,000) and finance and insurance (up 51,000).
That insatiable need for new workers has forced employers across the economy to offer higher pay and better benefits. Wages have risen 4.7 percent in the past year, although they have not kept up with inflation, which has grown 8.5 percent in the same period. Economists say they expect workers’ pay to continue ticking up in coming months as companies compete for a limited pool of workers.
“These record quits across the economy show that employers are under huge pressure,” Pollak said. “They’re going to realize very quickly that offering massive compensation packages to new hires isn’t going to cut it anymore. They’re going to have to raise wages wholesale for existing employees, too.”
Workers who switched jobs saw a 5.3 percent increase in median pay from a year ago, compared to 4 percent growth for those who stayed put, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Wage Growth Tracker.
“The balance of power in wage negotiations has tilted toward workers,” Mickey Levy, chief Americas economist for Berenberg Capital Markets, wrote in a client note Tuesday.
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Job openings hit new records, while 4.5 million Americans quit or changed jobs in March, reflecting labor market strength
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/03/jobs-quits-hires-march-2022/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F36bd879%2F6271551e956121755a613f47%2F5f8d147cae7e8a56e5b732a4%2F15%2F72%2F6271551e956121755a613f47
U.S. employers posted a record 11.5 million job openings in March, and some 4.5 million Americans quit or changed positions, matching previous highs, reflecting continued strength in the rapidly growing labor market, where workers continue to have the upper hand.
Meanwhile, the number of new hires — 6.7 million — remained steady, according to a report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Demand for workers remains white-hot,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “This is very broad, enormous growth. Even though we’ve almost recovered all of the jobs lost in the pandemic, the labor market just keeps getting tighter and tighter.”
The strong job openings and worker quits data could play into discussions about curbing inflation at the Federal Reserve, which is expected to announce another interest rate hike, by a half-percentage point on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell has cited the “extremely, historically” tight job market as a major reason he says the economy can withstand higher interest rates without tumbling into recession.
U.S. employers have added more than 400,000 jobs a month for nearly a year, while the unemployment rate of 3.6 percent remains near record lows. Overall, the number of job openings grew 36 percent in March from a year earlier. Demand for workers rose markedly in retail (where job openings increased by 155,000 from February), manufacturing (up 75,000) and finance and insurance (up 51,000).
That insatiable need for new workers has forced employers across the economy to offer higher pay and better benefits. Wages have risen 4.7 percent in the past year, although they have not kept up with inflation, which has grown 8.5 percent in the same period. Economists say they expect workers’ pay to continue ticking up in coming months as companies compete for a limited pool of workers.
“These record quits across the economy show that employers are under huge pressure,” Pollak said. “They’re going to realize very quickly that offering massive compensation packages to new hires isn’t going to cut it anymore. They’re going to have to raise wages wholesale for existing employees, too.”
Workers who switched jobs saw a 5.3 percent increase in median pay from a year ago, compared to 4 percent growth for those who stayed put, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Wage Growth Tracker.
“The balance of power in wage negotiations has tilted toward workers,” Mickey Levy, chief Americas economist for Berenberg Capital Markets, wrote in a client note Tuesday.
Yet the job participation rate continues to fall. Inflation will not come down until energy costs come down as that affects the cost of just about everything. We just installed solar panels on our roof not to save the planet but to save money.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/labor-force-projections-to-2022-the-labor-force-participation-rate-continues-to-fall.htm
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Yet the job participation rate continues to fall. Inflation will not come down until energy costs come down as that affects the cost of just about everything. We just installed solar panels on our roof not to save the planet but to save money.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/labor-force-projections-to-2022-the-labor-force-participation-rate-continues-to-fall.htm
I don’t do a single thing to leave the world a better place I found it. There is no I in Earth but there is an e for me
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82
I also took away from the Buffett meeting that he and Munger felt that speculation inflated the market over the past couple of years. His comments on giving guidance were also interested, IMO. I watched 90% of the event and did not come away feeling we are in a robust economic cycle. I very much enjoyed watching the meeting and hope the old guys are back next year.
Goose:
I thought you would enjoy this story.
Many years ago, when I was young Investment Banker in the pre internet and cell phone age ; I was dispatched by my client to make an offer to Berkshire to sell their business . This was in Buffetts early days of entire business acquisitions .
So I proceeded to write Mr. Buffett a letter in accordance with the guidelines he requested for acquisitions along these lines
Dear Mr . Buffett:
I am writing to you about XYZ corporation . Discussion of its deep moat
Characteristics . Discussion of the group I Represented . Then an asking price. I look forward to your response .
Sincerely,
Herman Cain
I at at my desk waiting for a call. instead ,about 3 Weeks later I received a letter from Buffett along these lines .
Dear Herman: ( I liked that personalization Lol)
You are correct XYZ is exactly the type of business Berkshire wants to acquire .
I have personally read every XYZ annual report for the last 28 years cover to cover including footnotes .
I am not interested at the price offered . However , please continue to send any other opportunities you may see .
Best Regards.
Sincerely,
Warren E. Buffett
Fast Forward to today about 28 years later . Berkshire bought XYZ for about 60 times what is was offered back in the day .
All my files are in storage since we moved to the Sunshine State . One day I am going to dig that letter out and frame it next to a copy of the Wall Street Journal story announcing Berkshires acquisition of XYZ
As far as I am concerned Buffett has lost nothing off his fastball . He is Still a Tiger out there .
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Herman,
That is a great story. Back in my leather/shoe days I wrote, but never sent Warren Buffet a letter about the opportunities in China and the shoe industry in particular. I remember vividly sitting in my hotel room in approx 1995 and saying to myself this is the next gold rush and I thought Buffet was the perfect guy to invest in the excitement being created in China. To this day I still regret not sending him that letter.
Fast forward from my non sent letter and Berkshire started buying shoe companies in the late 1990's and ultimately bought Dexter Shoe from Harold Alfond and his family. I had the pleasure of seeing Mr. Alfond at work and worked a great deal with two of his grandsons and his son in law over the years. It was a lesson in business I have never forgot.
By the way, Buffet said later on that buying Dexter was the worst deal he ever made, compounded by the deal being stock vs. cash. Even the the great one's can be a pigeon from time to time.
As for the Dexter sale to Berkshire, Mr. Alfond was closing the deal with Buffet and it was to be an all cash deal, which was the norm for Buffet and Berkshire. Mr. Alfond politely told Buffet that he had plenty of cash and he only would sell for Berkshire stock. He ultimately sold for stock and one of my business hero's, Alfond, beat one of my other hero's in that deal.
I would recommend anyone that has an interest in business, manufacturing and how to run a family business to google Harold Alfond. An amazing man and a better businessman. As I mentioned, I saw Mr. Alfond in action on more than one occasion and it was a lesson that was beyond belief. For one morning I shadowed Mr. Alfond as he went department to department to talk to the managers and piece work employees to get a pulse on how things were going in the company. In addition, he checked every daily piece work time sheet to make sure production was moving at the proper speed. He was firm, polite, funny and caring, but he definitely had an agenda for his time on the floor and it was priceless to be a small part of his morning.
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Herman,
That is a great story. Back in my leather/shoe days I wrote, but never sent Warren Buffet a letter about the opportunities in China and the shoe industry in particular. I remember vividly sitting in my hotel room in approx 1995 and saying to myself this is the next gold rush and I thought Buffet was the perfect guy to invest in the excitement being created in China. To this day I still regret not sending him that letter.
Fast forward from my non sent letter and Berkshire started buying shoe companies in the late 1990's and ultimately bought Dexter Shoe from Harold Alfond and his family. I had the pleasure of seeing Mr. Alfond at work and worked a great deal with two of his grandsons and his son in law over the years. It was a lesson in business I have never forgot.
By the way, Buffet said later on that buying Dexter was the worst deal he ever made, compounded by the deal being stock vs. cash. Even the the great one's can be a pigeon from time to time.
As for the Dexter sale to Berkshire, Mr. Alfond was closing the deal with Buffet and it was to be an all cash deal, which was the norm for Buffet and Berkshire. Mr. Alfond politely told Buffet that he had plenty of cash and he only would sell for Berkshire stock. He ultimately sold for stock and one of my business hero's, Alfond, beat one of my other hero's in that deal.
I would recommend anyone that has an interest in business, manufacturing and how to run a family business to google Harold Alfond. An amazing man and a better businessman. As I mentioned, I saw Mr. Alfond in action on more than one occasion and it was a lesson that was beyond belief. For one morning I shadowed Mr. Alfond as he went department to department to talk to the managers and piece work employees to get a pulse on how things were going in the company. In addition, he checked every daily piece work time sheet to make sure production was moving at the proper speed. He was firm, polite, funny and caring, but he definitely had an agenda for his time on the floor and it was priceless to be a small part of his morning.
Goose,
Taking me back to my childhood. On my French-Canadian side I had a Great Uncle who lived in Dover-Foxcroft, ME. We'd go up to visit over the summer and as part of the trip was my parents insistence that we always stop at the nearby Dexter Shoe Factory and pick up shoes at a discount.
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Mu Fan
Aside from my time with the Alfond and Lunder family at Dexter, the highlight of my time in Dexter ME was hanging out at the off track betting joint in town. I love Maine, but Dexter was not much to write home about back in the day.
By the way, I became friends with Alfond's grandson the first time I met him and told him I would never wear a pair of Dexter shoes and he loved it. That is how I made my debut to the Alfond family.
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U.S. Jobs Report for April Shows More Strong Gains
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/06/business/april-2022-jobs-report?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20220506&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline®i_id=108420427&segment_id=91458&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
April produced another solid month of job growth, the Labor Department reported Friday, reflecting the economy’s resilient rebound from the pandemic’s devastation.
U.S. employers added 428,000 jobs, the department said, the same as the revised figure for March. The unemployment rate in April remained 3.6 percent.
“The job market is proving to be a key source of resilience for the economy. Job creation will eventually settle into a slower pace as businesses feel the pinch of soaring inflation and tighter financial conditions, but gains will stay healthy,” said Oren Klachkin, a lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “We think the economy has enough strength to create over 4 million jobs this year.”
The U.S. economy has regained more than 90 percent of the 22 million jobs lost at the height of coronavirus-related lockdowns in the spring of 2020. And labor force participation has recovered more swiftly than most analysts initially expected, nearing prepandemic levels. The labor supply over the past year has not kept up with a record wave of job openings, however, as businesses expand to meet the demand for a variety of goods and services.
That has helped push up wages — the April survey showed average hourly earnings 5.5 percent higher than a year earlier — but those gains for workers have been largely offset by a surge in prices.
High inflation began last spring as demand from households and businesses collided with a chaotic reordering of the supply of goods and labor, and it has persisted longer than the Federal Reserve expected. The price pressures have been compounded by the war in Ukraine, which has upended energy and commodity markets, and another spell of coronavirus lockdowns in China, which has caused renewed supply chain disruptions.
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Huh.
No wonder the grave dancers are presently quiet.
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82
The jobs numbers looked very good, but we are living in strange times. IMO, the only numbers that really matter at the moment are inflation numbers and interest rates. My guess is you could find economists who could argue both sides of the job numbers and both could be right. My level of concern is growing weekly, and I believe extremely rough sledding is coming for the US economy.
There was a debate on scoop over the past few days on what caused the rapid increase in inflation, and I believe the biggest single factor was the wealth factor created by an overbought stock market and even hotter housing market. The wealth factor is a dangerous component in our economy because when it dies, it dies hard and fast. If I am right, the good news that weaker demand will drive down prices to some extent.
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82
The jobs numbers looked very good, but we are living in strange times. IMO, the only numbers that really matter at the moment are inflation numbers and interest rates. My guess is you could find economists who could argue both sides of the job numbers and both could be right. My level of concern is growing weekly, and I believe extremely rough sledding is coming for the US economy.
There was a debate on scoop over the past few days on what caused the rapid increase in inflation, and I believe the biggest single factor was the wealth factor created by an overbought stock market and even hotter housing market. The wealth factor is a dangerous component in our economy because when it dies, it dies hard and fast. If I am right, the good news that weaker demand will drive down prices to some extent.
Yep. Indeed, I have read accounts from some economists this morning that say it actually would have been good if job growth and wages would cool some because it would help tamp down inflation.
There are plenty of concerns to go around.
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Published numbers lag real time scenarios. In today's economic volatility, stick a wet finger in the air and gage how the wind is blowin'.
In fact, stick a long finger in da direction of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., aina?
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Published numbers lag real time scenarios. In today's economic volatility, stick a wet finger in the air and gage how the wind is blowin'.
In fact, stick a long finger in da direction of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., aina?
::)
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82
The jobs numbers looked very good, but we are living in strange times. IMO, the only numbers that really matter at the moment are inflation numbers and interest rates. My guess is you could find economists who could argue both sides of the job numbers and both could be right. My level of concern is growing weekly, and I believe extremely rough sledding is coming for the US economy.
There was a debate on scoop over the past few days on what caused the rapid increase in inflation, and I believe the biggest single factor was the wealth factor created by an overbought stock market and even hotter housing market. The wealth factor is a dangerous component in our economy because when it dies, it dies hard and fast. If I am right, the good news that weaker demand will drive down prices to some extent.
Goose, could you elaborate a bit on why you think raising interest rates might be the wrong strategy? I don't have the experience through as many economic cycles as you and some others here. From my limited experience, the Fed raising rates seems like a no brainer - an overjuiced equity market, unsustainable residential real estate market, inflation that is too high, rates that are (long view historically) very low - it seems like capital is very, very available. I'm kind of scratching my head saying "if not a rate raise now, then when would rates ever go up?"
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Goose, could you elaborate a bit on why you think raising interest rates might be the wrong strategy? I don't have the experience through as many economic cycles as you and some others here. From my limited experience, the Fed raising rates seems like a no brainer - an overjuiced equity market, unsustainable residential real estate market, inflation that is too high, rates that are (long view historically) very low - it seems like capital is very, very available. I'm kind of scratching my head saying "if not a rate raise now, then when would rates ever go up?"
IMO, it's well past time to raise rates. Doing so allows a lever to be pulled in the future to stimulate the economy.
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IMO, it's well past time to raise rates. Doing so allows a lever to be pulled in the future to stimulate the economy.
That's my thinking too. I'm pretty afraid that we're running out of bullets in the chamber that we can fire during economic swoons.
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MU Burrow
Sorry for not being clear on the interest rate front. I am 10000% in favor of raising rates, believe it should have started in Q3 of 2021 and keep raising them until it is no longer needed. We have had Fed fueled stock market gold rush and equally hot housing market and nothing lasts forever. The Fed is not around to help my retirement plan skyrocket in price or provide 100% increase in my home value. They are a very powerful group, maybe as powerful as any group in the world, and I think they have been reckless for a long time. In addition, they have had interest rates at near zero for a long time and could not to create 2% annualize inflation when they tried to, thus I am not so sure they are going to be able to get the horse back in the barn without a lot of pain to the American public.
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::)
Paranoid conspiracy theories are apparently common amongst old, easily influenced dentists
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Paranoid conspiracy theories are apparently common amongst old, easily influenced dentists
so that's your excuse
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so that's your excuse
He’s a dentist?
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He’s a dentist?
Checkout this Brainiac’s gene pool. TSmiff, that is.
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He’s a dentist?
I seem to know more about health care than roqqet and 4ever, does that count as being a "dentist"?
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Maybe bye osmosis, hey?
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I seem to know more about health care than roqqet and 4ever, does that count as being a "dentist"?
if you can beat about 80 years combined dental experience, then yes, you are a health care rock star smith
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(https://images2.imgbox.com/70/d8/zTmBPUBj_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/zTmBPUBj)
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(https://images2.imgbox.com/70/d8/zTmBPUBj_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/zTmBPUBj)
Maybe he’s a horse dentist? To be fair I have never heard him claim that he works on people.
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80 years combined dental experience
awl dis meenz iz dat u guyz ewez lotsa coopons four yor dyeperz, oona?
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Next tyme ya got a toothache, kall a cub reporter, hey?
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Just gargle some bleach and rub horse paste on it.
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Next tyme ya got a toothache, kall a cub reporter, hey?
I use a dentist who isn't conned by the Conspiracy Theory du Jour and who didn't cheer on the 1/6/21 cop-maimers, so I assume he's up on the latest science of the profession. My dentist also isn't as old as dirt.
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Too bad, probably not a Marquette grad either...good luck with that, hey?
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MU Burrow
Sorry for not being clear on the interest rate front. I am 10000% in favor of raising rates, believe it should have started in Q3 of 2021 and keep raising them until it is no longer needed. We have had Fed fueled stock market gold rush and equally hot housing market and nothing lasts forever. The Fed is not around to help my retirement plan skyrocket in price or provide 100% increase in my home value. They are a very powerful group, maybe as powerful as any group in the world, and I think they have been reckless for a long time. In addition, they have had interest rates at near zero for a long time and could not to create 2% annualize inflation when they tried to, thus I am not so sure they are going to be able to get the horse back in the barn without a lot of pain to the American public.
Thanks Goose, appreciate the follow up. I also probably misread your earlier post re your thoughts on the Fed's actions. This makes a lot of sense to me. I recall some of these discussions when inflation was too low.
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MuBurrow
The Fed has a mighty big task in front of them. Sadly, I think they are hoping demand falls quickly to help them out. IMO, they created much of this mess and they are going to need all the help they can get.
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From the NYT:
WASHINGTON — In Kansas, the Democratic governor has been pushing to slash the state’s grocery sales tax. Last month, New Mexico lawmakers provided $1,000 tax rebates to households hobbled by high gas prices. Legislatures in Iowa, Indiana and Idaho have all cut state income taxes this year.
A combination of flush state budget coffers and rapid inflation has lawmakers across the country looking for ways to ease the pain of rising prices, with nearly three dozen states enacting or considering some form of tax relief, according to the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank.
The efforts are blurring typical party lines when it comes to tax policy. In many cases, Democrats are joining Republicans in supporting permanently lower taxes or temporary cuts, including for high earners.
But while the policies are aimed at helping Americans weather the fastest pace of inflation in 40 years, economists warn that, paradoxically, cutting taxes could exacerbate the very problem lawmakers are trying to address. By putting more money in people’s pockets, policymakers risk further stimulating already rampant consumer demand, pushing prices higher nationally.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/10/us/politics/states-tax-cuts-inflation.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220510&instance_id=60927&nl=the-morning®i_id=108420427&segment_id=91787&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
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Any rag that still employs krugman has no economic credibility. Ain’t he the guy who predicted economic Armageddon 2016? Yeah that’s a real non biased look. The ny slimes has proved itself over and over to be a partisan piece of schiff why anyone would reference it for anything…oh, never mind only people still having night sweats over a few people walking thru the capital doors getting a free tour no concerns about cities and police stations and businesses being burnt to the ground
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Any rag that still employs krugman has no economic credibility. Ain’t he the guy who predicted economic Armageddon 2016? Yeah that’s a real non biased look. The ny slimes has proved itself over and over to be a partisan piece of schiff why anyone would reference it for anything…oh, never mind only people still having night sweats over a few people walking thru the capital doors getting a free tour no concerns about cities and police stations and businesses being burnt to the ground
9 of 10
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Any rag that still employs krugman has no economic credibility. Ain’t he the guy who predicted economic Armageddon 2016? Yeah that’s a real non biased look. The ny slimes has proved itself over and over to be a partisan piece of schiff why anyone would reference it for anything…oh, never mind only people still having night sweats over a few people walking thru the capital doors getting a free tour no concerns about cities and police stations and businesses being burnt to the ground
Is the teal no longer working?
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Is the teal no longer working?
Besides leaving the country worse than they found it, baby boomers are pretty computer stupid
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Yeah the guy who posts links exclusively from Fox News is complaining about others referencing the New York Times....
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Any rag that still employs krugman has no economic credibility. Ain’t he the guy who predicted economic Armageddon 2016? Yeah that’s a real non biased look. The ny slimes has proved itself over and over to be a partisan piece of schiff why anyone would reference it for anything…oh, never mind only people still having night sweats over a few people walking thru the capital doors getting a free tour no concerns about cities and police stations and businesses being burnt to the ground
sure Krugman is an elitist and i-told-you-so type of person, but why do you think he's incorrect on tax policies and monetary theory?
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sure Krugman is an elitist and i-told-you-so type of person, but why do you think he's incorrect on tax policies and monetary theory?
I think he's a buffon on a lot of real world applications of economic theory. Which is why he's been wrong on big calls like the internet, 2016, and thinking the TPP was worthless, etc.... I personally think his (and other economists) "diminishing marginal utility" theory on raising tax rates is nonsense.
I don't think he's unintelligent or a moron, I just think he's a blowhard who's well past his prime and I don't give most of his subsequent musings much weight.
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Any rag that still employs krugman has no economic credibility. Ain’t he the guy who predicted economic Armageddon 2016? Yeah that’s a real non biased look. The ny slimes has proved itself over and over to be a partisan piece of schiff why anyone would reference it for anything…oh, never mind only people still having night sweats over a few people walking thru the capital doors getting a free tour no concerns about cities and police stations and businesses being burnt to the ground
Magnificent work
Yay! Free Tours!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXnHIJkZZAs